大学生创业恐惧心理现状及对策

大学生对待创业的态度是积极的,但是大多数学生没有进行创业实践。创业恐惧心理已经成为阻碍大学生进行自主创业实践的重要因素。大学生创业成功率低、缺乏对自身创业能力的客观评估、缺少有效的创业支持系统和缺失宽松的创业环境等原因导致了大学生创业恐惧心理的产生。高校要以培育创新创业精神为理念。实施大学生创业教育;通过鼓励大学生参与创业计划大赛,积累实战经验。社会要以政府社会力量为依托,建立大学生创业保障体系;建立进取包容的创业文化。优化大学生创业环境。     

深化改革促进经济发展方式转变

任何一种经济发展方式都是现实环境下的产物,粗放经济发展方式是在一定的制度约束条件下追求本位利益的个体"理性"集体无意识的选择,看起来不可思议,却有其存在的客观性。旧体制不清除,经济发展方式就难以转变。制约转变经济发展方式的深层次政治体制障碍集中存在于政府职能难以转变,制约转变经济发展方式的深层次经济体制障碍集中存在于要素市场。因此,必须加快政治体制和经济体制改革,首要的是加快民主政治建设,把政府置于人民的监督之下,以此推动政府职能转变。使生产要素真正市场化。在新的政治经济体制下,实现经济发展方式顺利转变。     

胡适的文学自然进化论

胡适文学革命思想的核心是文学的进化论。胡适认为文学像生物进化一样有自然演变进化的过程,因而不同的时代必定有不同的文学。文学的演变进化有两条规律:一是文学的自然进化,一是文学的接触进化。文学自然趋势的逐渐实现便是文学的自然进化。白话文学是文言文学自然进化的结果。在文学的自然进化过程中,文学的内容是随着时代的不同而必定自然的演化,而内容的自然演进必定影响形式的自然进化,所以一个时代有一个时代的文学。在文学自然进化的过程中,有时也需要人力的督促才能加快文学的自然演进,人力的督促便是文学革命。     

高校突发事件网络舆情传播的博弈分析--以香港占中事件为例

高校突发事件网络舆情的管理关系到高校教学乃至社会发展的稳定。以香港“占中”事件为例,运用演化博弈分析方法,建立学生群体面对突发事件策略选择的博弈模型,通过模型分析学生策略选择对网络舆情演变的影响。该模型可推广到一般的高校突发事件,对研究高校突发事件网络舆情具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

智慧导向型知识管理的一种分析框架

本文在剖析知识、智慧的概念及其内在关系的基础上,从知识和智慧有机结合角度提出了一种分层次的智慧导向型知识管理分析框架。该框架反映了知识与智慧之间相互补充、相互促进的内在统一性,并分别将知识管理和组织智慧看作手段和导向,给出了知识和智慧两个层面的集成管理策略,体现了一种全新的系统知识管理思想。其目的是使组织更加有效地实施知识管理战略,更好地发挥知识的效能,从而使组织适应环境的变化,达到与环境长期和谐共存。最后指出了本文观点对组织实施知识管理的影响和借鉴作用。     

遗产个案与文本表述——梁平造纸术调查报告

非物质文化遗产保护运动正日益改变着传统文化的表述语境,“遗产”甚至成为一种新的话语霸权.在国家遗产的宏大叙事中,地方个案的特殊性以及与当地人生活方式的特殊关联逐渐进入非物质文化遗产的表述系统而被“书写”、被“转述”.梁平造纸术就是这样一个被湮没在非物质文化遗产话语体系中的细微个案.     

穿梭于学术研究与应用实践之间 ———庄孔韶教授访谈录

题记：作为中国人类学、民族学重建以来的第一批研究生,庄孔韶教授自1978年师从林耀华、黄淑娉两位先生从事学术研究开始,亲历了学科30年的发展历程。从原始社会史的学习入手,到对西南少数民族调查的专业训练,从20世纪80年代中后期转向汉人社会研究,到90年代以来积极投身于人类学的应用研究,可以说,在他关注的每一个领域都有贡献于学界的研究成果。为了呈现这位人类学家从事研究的行进脉络、探索的理路、思考的灵感和人生体悟,2010年12月3日,2011年1月2日和15日,采访者三次聆听庄孔韶教授畅谈,分享了其行旅与悟道的过程。现辑录成篇以飨读者。