胡适的文学自然进化论

胡适文学革命思想的核心是文学的进化论。胡适认为文学像生物进化一样有自然演变进化的过程,因而不同的时代必定有不同的文学。文学的演变进化有两条规律:一是文学的自然进化,一是文学的接触进化。文学自然趋势的逐渐实现便是文学的自然进化。白话文学是文言文学自然进化的结果。在文学的自然进化过程中,文学的内容是随着时代的不同而必定自然的演化,而内容的自然演进必定影响形式的自然进化,所以一个时代有一个时代的文学。在文学自然进化的过程中,有时也需要人力的督促才能加快文学的自然演进,人力的督促便是文学革命。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

高校突发事件网络舆情传播的博弈分析--以香港占中事件为例

高校突发事件网络舆情的管理关系到高校教学乃至社会发展的稳定。以香港“占中”事件为例,运用演化博弈分析方法,建立学生群体面对突发事件策略选择的博弈模型,通过模型分析学生策略选择对网络舆情演变的影响。该模型可推广到一般的高校突发事件,对研究高校突发事件网络舆情具有一定的借鉴意义。     

大学综合排名竞争策略研究——基于网大（www．netbig．com）大学排行榜的实证分析

关于提升大学综舍排名的竞争策略,可以运用累积Logit模型来研究各评价指标排名对大学综合排名的影响效应,通过提高那些对综合排名影响效应较大的指标排名,能更有效地促进综合排名的提高,从而确定有效的排名竞争策略。利用网大（www．netbig．com）“中国大学排行榜”的排名数据进行实证分析,得出排名越靠前的大学通过提升“声誉”和“学术成果”名次能最有效提升综合排名。而排名越靠后的大学则通过提升“学术资源”和“物资资源”名次能最有效提升综合排名等结论。     

多元启发理论视角下的萨科齐对利比亚空袭决策

利比亚危机爆发后,萨科齐政府在很短时间内就做出了对利比亚进行空袭的决策,这与以往法国对战争的谨慎态度形成了强烈对比。本文从多元启发理论视角解释萨科齐政府对利比亚危机的决策过程。在关于如何应对危机的决策过程中,萨科齐优先考虑的是国内政治,他排除了任何会损害他政治前途的方案。但对国内政治的考虑并不贯穿决策的始终,当剩余方案都能通过国内政治维度的检验时,萨科齐会从理性分析的角度对这些方案进行详细评估,力求从中选出总体表现最优的方案。对利比亚进行空袭,正是萨科齐政府通过双阶段的筛选过程后被确定为应对利比亚危机的最终方案的。     

遗产个案与文本表述——梁平造纸术调查报告

非物质文化遗产保护运动正日益改变着传统文化的表述语境,“遗产”甚至成为一种新的话语霸权.在国家遗产的宏大叙事中,地方个案的特殊性以及与当地人生活方式的特殊关联逐渐进入非物质文化遗产的表述系统而被“书写”、被“转述”.梁平造纸术就是这样一个被湮没在非物质文化遗产话语体系中的细微个案.     

关于历史统一性及其基础的历史哲学考察

思辨历史哲学对历史过程统一性的大量论述可以概括为两种基本观点。以黑格尔为代表的“整体性”观点把人类历史看作一个蕴含终极意义和内在联系、各阶段依次演进的整体;以维柯为代表的“共同性”观点则着眼于从各个历史单位独立的发展进程中概括出某些一致的方面。他们的“历史统一性”都归结于某种形而上的基础,如“天意”或抽象“人性”等。马克思认为,到资本主义时代才形成整体性的“世界历史”。在此之前,历史的统一性主要表现在各历史单位中社会关系的共同性,其基础在于人的感性活动。     

鲜卑妇女较高社会地位及其缘由

北朝时代鲜卑族的社会习俗,妇女有着较高社会地位,自我意识较为强烈,大胆追求爱情,频繁社会交际,专持门户,以"妒"挟持丈夫,勇悍尚武。盖源于社会大量残存母系氏族社会遗风,较少受到礼教的约束,尤其是鲜卑妇女在社会生产及政治生活中发挥着重要作用,而所处自然环境也有一定的影响。