高等农业院校的科技特派员制度初探

随着农业经济的飞速发展,旧的计划经济条件下的管理体制已不相适应.建立农业科技特派员推广体系,调动农业高等院校、科研单位、企业、农民参与农业技术推广,实行推广队伍多元化,推广行为社会化,推广形式多样化.逐步形成国家扶持和市场引导相结合,有偿服务与无偿服务相结合的农业科技特派员推广体系.促进农业的各种行业协会和合作组织的发展,发挥其在科技推广中的作用.     

Statistical inference for a relaxation index of stochastic dominance under density ratio model

Stochastic dominance is usually used to rank random variables by comparing their distributions, so it is widely applied in economics and finance. In actual applications, complete stochastic dominance is too demanding to meet, so relaxation indexes of stochastic dominance have attracted more attention. The π index, the biggest gap between two distributions, can be a measure of the degree of deviation from complete dominance. The traditional estimation method is to use the empirical distribution functions to estimate it. Considering the populations under comparison are generally of the same nature, we can link the populations through density ratio model under certain condition. Based on this model, we propose a new estimator and establish its statistical inference theory. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator substantially improves estimation efficiency and power of the tests and coverage probabilities satisfactorily match the confidence levels of the tests, which show the superiority of the proposed estimator. Finally we apply our method to a real example of the Chinese household incomes.     

环境行政处罚能以儆效尤吗?——同伴影响视角下环境规制的威慑效应研究

环境规制是促进企业实施环境保护策略的主要推动力,本文应用犯罪经济学中的威慑理论,分析环境规制发挥治理作用的内在机理,实证研究目标企业环境行政处罚对同伴企业环保投资的影响,验证了环境规制发挥威慑效应的重要途径:同伴影响.以上市公司为样本,结合手工收集的2007年～2015年间企业环境行政处罚数据,实证结果显示:目标企业环境行政处罚增加了同伴企业的环保投资,即通过同伴影响路径,环境规制产生威慑效应.此外,企业规模、处罚性质以及媒体报道等因素影响环境规制的威慑效应,具体体现为被处罚企业规模大、处罚严厉以及媒体报道,对同伴企业的威慑效应更强;行业竞争作为一种外部机制,有助于强化环境规制的威慑效应.研究结论表明政府实施环境规制中提高处罚确定性、典型性、严厉性,以及舆论监督与行业竞争能够增强同伴影响,提高环境规制威慑力.     

汉晋之际学术现象探析

汉代经学和儒家所倡导的礼义制度随着汉王朝政权统治的衰落而日趋空疏和虚浮,黄老刑名法术之学代之而起,从而形成以形名为核心的谈辩风气,旋即演进为玄谈和玄学。何晏指出归元致一是最有效的治学之道,王弼则提出自觉以执一方法治学的要求。士人们不仅在思想深处将儒道两家融会贯通,而且吸收了其他方面的学说和文化。南北朝时期,人们观念理论和思辩的对象层面开始下移,士人的思索重点转向了形神关系,而有无关系问题则随之在人们头脑中退居二线。汉末六朝学术的发展在整个中国学术史上划了一个弯。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

中医药健康旅游产业服务“健康山东”建设的思考

在当前中医药健康产业已成为国内各省区重点发展的领域和新旧动能转换的背景下,讨论如何建设中医药健康旅游产业,使之有效地服务“健康山东”战略及打造全方位?全周期健康服务产业链,创建山东“国家医养结合示范省”?从七个方面讨论了中医药健康旅游产业的内涵及其对于“健康山东”建设的意义,重点讨论了山东省中医药健康旅游产业的发展策略,主要包括依托山东省自然旅游资源开展中医药健康服务项目;开发中医药院校?中医院及中医药企业的健康旅游资源;深入挖掘和融入山东省中医药文化元素;推进多产业融合,发展中医药特色健康旅游产业新业态;利用大数据定向推广中医药健康旅游产业;培养高素质复合型人才;健全中医药健康旅游管理法律法规制度和积极申报中医药健康旅游示范区等?     

南京高校大学生养老志愿服务参与意愿调查

采用问卷调查法对南京市部分高校1 450名在校大学生参与养老志愿服务的意愿和情况进行调查,探讨养老志愿服务存在的问题和影响因素,提出相应措施?共发放问卷1 450份,回收有效问卷1 362份,有效回收率为93.9%?大学生对养老志愿服务的了解程度较高,了解途径主要为志愿服务团队;大学生养老志愿活动的参与意愿较高,不愿意参与的原因包括“活动内容枯燥?类型单一”?“缺乏专业指导”?“经费不足”以及年级?性别;实际参与到养老志愿服务中的大学生未过半,并且存在多种影响服务者活动满意度的因素?     

论英语超句统一体

意义的向心性、思维的条理性和句际的联系性是超句统一体的三个基本属性 ,三者缺一不可。但超句统一体的本质特征是意义、结构和语用的最小统一体 ,它是句法与篇章、句法与修辞、句法学与话语语言学的共同研究对象 ,是这些学科分支的契合点 ,是沟通它们的桥梁性单位     

中保财险数据集中系统的设计与实现技术

论述了基于触发器、日志表和可靠远程复制数据算法实现的数据集中系统,系统由数据捕获和数据复制两部分组成。可以在UNIX下可靠、高效地运行。该系统与应用取向基本无关,可以集中各种应用系统的数据,并能够自动检测网络连通性,且具有较强的容错机制。