Bayesian significance test for discriminating between survival distributions

An evaluation of FBST, Fully Bayesian Significance Test, restricted to survival models is the main objective of the present paper. A Survival distribution should be chosen among the tree celebrated ones, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull. For this discrimination, a linear mixture of the three distributions is an important tool: the FBST is used to test the hypotheses defined on the mixture weights space. Another feature of the paper is that all three distributions are reparametrized in that all the six parameters are written as functions of the mean and the variance of the population been studied. Some numerical results from simulations with some right-censored data are considered.     

Mother–Adolescent Conflict: Stability,Change, and Relations with Externalizing and Internalizing Behavior Problems

Stability and change in mother–adolescent conflict reactions (CRs) and the prediction of CRs from adolescents' earlier behavior problems (and vice versa) were examined with 131 mothers and their adolescents (63 boys). Dyads engaged in a 6‐min conflict discussion twice, 2 years apart [M age was 13 at Time 1 (T1)]. Non‐verbal expressive and verbal CRs during the conflict discussion were coded. Mothers, fathers, and teachers reported on adolescents' problem behaviors. There was inter‐individual (rank‐order) stability for adolescents' CRs whereas mothers' reactions were less stable. Mean levels of mothers' negativity, anger, and positive reactions and adolescents' negativity declined with time. Mothers’ CRs, more often than adolescents’ CRs, predicted and were predicted by adolescents’ problem behaviors in zero‐order correlations. In structural equation models with the stability of the constructs accounted for, adolescents' externalizing problems at T1 predicted higher maternal anger at Time 2 (T2). Mothers' anger and positive CRs at T1 predicted fewer T2 adolescents' internalizing problems. Stability and change in CRs are discussed.     

A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits

This article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non‐contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy‐makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.     

Consistent Testing of Cointegrating Relationships

In this paper we investigate methods for testing the existence of a cointegration relationship among the components of a nonstationary fractionally integrated (NFI) vector time series. Our framework generalizes previous studies restricted to unit root integrated processes and permits simultaneous analysis of spurious and cointegrated NFI vectors. We propose a modified F‐statistic, based on a particular studentization, which converges weakly under both hypotheses, despite the fact that OLS estimates are only consistent under cointegration. This statistic leads to a Wald‐type test of cointegration when combined with a narrow band GLS‐type estimate. Our semiparametric methodology allows consistent testing of the spurious regression hypothesis against the alternative of fractional cointegration without prior knowledge on the memory of the original series, their short run properties, the cointegrating vector, or the degree of cointegration. This semiparametric aspect of the modelization does not lead to an asymptotic loss of power, permitting the Wald statistic to diverge faster under the alternative of cointegration than when testing for a hypothesized cointegration vector. In our simulations we show that the method has comparable power to customary procedures under the unit root cointegration setup, and maintains good properties in a general framework where other methods may fail. We illustrate our method testing the cointegration hypothesis of nominal GNP and simple‐sum (M1, M2, M3) monetary aggregates.