New polya and inverse polya distributions of order k

New Polya and inverse Polya distributions of order k are derived by means of generalized urn models and by compounding the binomial and negative binomial distributions of order k of Philippou (1986, 1983) with the beta distribution. It i s noted that the present Polpa distribution of order k includes as special cases a new hypergeometric distribution of order k, a negative one,an inverse one, and a discrete uniform of the same order. The probability generating functions, means and variances of the new distributions are obtained, and five asymptotic results are established relating them to the abovedmentioned binomial and negative binomial distributions of order k, and to the Poisson distribution of the same order of Philippou (1983).Moment estimates are also given and applications are indicated.     

A new approach to estimating shelf‐life

The current approach to the estimation of shelf‐life and the determination of the label shelf‐life as detailed in the International Conference on Harmonisation guidelines to industry is presented. The shortcomings of the status quo are explained and a possible solution is offered, which gives rise to a new definition of shelf‐life. Several methods for calculating a label shelf‐life are presented and investigated using a simulation study. Recommendations to adopt the new definition and to increase sample sizes are made. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wenn alle tatsächlich in einem Boot sitzen — Eine Studie zur Identifikation mit der Schule im Kontext einer erlebnispädagogischen Gruppenerfahrung

We report on the results of an experience-pedagogic project on the identification of pupils from a technical school with their classes and school. The analysis is done from a perspective of organisational psychology and group dynamics, which is influenced by the social Identity Approach. It is stipulated that the experiences of a communal out-of-school activity strengthens the organisational identification. Additionally, it is verified whether the attitudes of the pupils towards their classes, and the participation in lessons, changes by influence of the project. The study shows a positive effect of this experience on organisational identity, attitudes toward the school, and behavioural intentions.     

The circular and time reversal tests reconsidered in economic price index theory

In this paper, a generalized definition of the well known economic price index is used to derive some similarities and dissimilarities between statistical and economic price index theory. The relationships between statistical and economic index numbers are analyzed by means of two tests taken from axiomatic (statistical) approaches which can also be formulated in an economic context.     

An approach to model complex high–dimensional insurance data

Summary: This paper describes common features in data sets from motor vehicle insurance companies and proposes a general approach which exploits knowledge of such features in order to model high–dimensional data sets with a complex dependency structure. The results of the approach can be a basis to develop insurance tariffs. The approach is applied to a collection of data sets from several motor vehicle insurance companies. As an example, we use a nonparametric approach based on a combination of two methods from modern statistical machine learning, i.e. kernel logistic regression and -support vector regression.*This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 475, Reduction of complexity in multivariate data structures) and by the Forschungsband Do-MuS from the University of Dortmund. I am grateful to Mr. A. Wolfstein and Dr. W. Terbeck from the Verband öffentlicher Versicherer in Düsseldorf, Germany, for making available the data set and for many helpful discussions.     

The impact of socio-economic status and caregiver cooperation on school professionals' reports to child protection services in Switzerland

Children spend a considerable amount of their time at school; many have trusted relationships with their teachers and some are supported by school social workers or school psychologists. However, factors driving school professionals' decision to report child victimisation to child protection services lack research. Based on a stratified random sample, 549 Swiss principals, school social workers and school psychologists participated in an online survey including two vignettes. While the family's socio-economic status was randomly presented as either high or low in the first vignette, caregiver cooperation was randomly varied in the second. Principals, school social workers and school psychologists were less likely to report to child protection authorities if the family had been described as cooperative or of high socio-economic status. The impact of both case characteristics was significant even while controlling for decision-maker and organisational factors. While the increased tendency to report a neglected child of a low socio-economic status family might actually be driven by need, the reluctance to report whether caregivers are cooperative should be examined more critically. Although caregiver cooperation might be considered an asset to working together for the best of the child, it does not guarantee improvement because cooperation might actually be superficial or driven by a hidden agenda.     

Beyond and below racial homophily: ERG models of a friendship network documented on Facebook

A notable feature of U.S. social networks is their high degree of racial homogeneity, which is often attributed to racial homophily--the preference for associating with individuals of the same racial background. The authors unpack racial homogeneity using a theoretical framework that distinguishes between various tie formation mechanisms and their effects on the racial composition of networks, exponential random graph modeling that can disentangle these mechanisms empirically, and a rich new data set based on the Facebook pages of a cohort of college students. They first show that racial homogeneity results not only from racial homophily proper but also from homophily among coethnics of the same racial background and from balancing mechanisms such as the tendency to reciprocate friendships or to befriend the friends of friends, which both amplify the homogeneity effects of homophily. Then, they put the importance of racial homophily further into perspective by comparing its effects to those of other mechanisms of tie formation. Balancing, propinquity based on coresidence, and homophily regarding nonracial categories (e.g., students from "elite" backgrounds or those from particular states) all influence the tie formation process more than does racial homophily.     

Dynamic multilevel governance for sustainable transformation as postnational configuration

Modern societies are increasingly having to cope with profound socio-political transformations, such as the transition from fossil energy production and consumption to more sustainable energy systems. Transformations ignite dynamics, processes, and forces, which induce new challenges for traditional structures and orders because major changes in society and politics are shifting from established manners, customs, and modes of behavior to new norms and values. Transformations cause epistemological uncertainty and complexity and challenge ontological fundaments and ethical convictions. National structures alone are not adequate to the task of handling the corresponding challenges because the capacity of domestic politics and regulations is too weak to achieve eligible political outcomes that can guide and structure transformations. In this light, I argue for a form of dynamic multilevel governance as a postnational configuration that has the capability and power to reform and transfigure institutions, structure and agency, hierarchies, cultural fabrics, socio-technical systems, and infrastructures toward new social and political orders. I theoretically and normatively conceptualize and justify three major governance framework conditions as hallmarks of dynamic multilevel governance, namely inclusiveness, adaptiveness, and distributed and differentiated deliberation. These capabilities produce reflexive authority with transformative and structuring power to tackle transformation issues. My notion of dynamic multilevel governance relies on thoughts in new institutionalism, network theory, deliberative democracy theory, discourse ethics, and different concepts of governance. I combine theory, normative justification, and institutional feasibility.