Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments

Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. We first compare the precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by age, at both the state and county levels. This is followed by a more detailed examination of county-level projection errors for individual age groups, first in the aggregate and then disaggregated by sex and population size. The second part of the analysis focuses on a number of adjustments that were implemented in projections published in 2006 and 2009. Intended to improve accuracy, these adjustments involved updates to the base population, fertility rates, and survival rates. We compare the accuracy of projections incorporating these adjustments with the accuracy of projections excluding them. We believe this study offers a unique opportunity to examine a variety of characteristics regarding the forecast accuracy of small-area population projections by age.     

Parenthood and Leaving Home in Young Adulthood

With increases in nonmarital fertility, the sequencing of transitions in early adulthood has become even more complex. Once the primary transition out of the parental home, marriage was first replaced by nonfamily living and cohabitation; more recently, many young adults have become parents before entering a coresidential union. Studies of leaving home, however, have not examined the role of early parenthood. Using the Young Adult Study of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 4,674), we use logistic regression to analyze parenthood both as a correlate of leaving home and as a route from the home. We find that even in mid-adolescence, becoming a parent is linked with leaving home. Coming from a more affluent family is linked with leaving home via routes that do not involve children rather than those that do, and having a warm relationship with either a mother or a father retards leaving home, particularly to nonfamily living, but is not related to parental routes out of the home.     

To test or not to test: do workplace drug testing programs discourage employee drug use?

Workplace drug testing programs are often met with intense criticism. Despite resistance among labor and consumer groups and a lack of rigorous empirical evidence regarding effectiveness, drug testing programs have remained popular with employers throughout the 1990s and into the current century. The present study analyzed nationally representative data on over 15,000 US households to determine whether various types of workplace drug testing programs influenced the probability of drug use by workers. The study estimated several empirical specifications using both univariate and bivariate probit techniques. The specification tests favored the bivariate probit model over the univariate probit model. Estimated marginal effects of drug testing on any drug use were negative, significant, and relatively large, indicating that drug testing programs are achieving one of the desired effects. The results were similar when any drug use was replaced with chronic drug use in the models. These results have important policy implications regarding the effectiveness and economic viability of workplace anti-drug programs.     

Risk and its Management in Post-Financial Crisis Hong Kong

In the 1970s and up until the financial crisis occurred in the late 1990s, Hong Kong prospered in a relatively stable social, economic and political context. Since the financial crisis, however, its population has been increasingly exposed to risk: there has been job uncertainty and decreasing capacity for self‐reliance, leading to a growing reliance on public welfare and on families at a time when both are under pressure. The old welfare policies, unable to cope with the new risks, have been replaced by neo‐liberal reforms, redistributing the roles and responsibilities of the individual and the state, with a greater burden falling on the former. Individuals are required to be prudent to manage risk. While these reforms have relieved some of the burden on the state, both new social risk groups and ‘net taxpayers’ considered themselves to have borne disproportional costs. Society is facing serious problems resulting from ineffective old welfare policies, new social risks due to new policies, and the political upheavals arising from increased social conflicts and weakened social cohesion and solidarity. A further complication is that there is no acceptable platform or agent to negotiate a compromise between the polarized groups. This article argues that reliance on publicly funded risk coping strategies or on neo‐liberal risk prevention and mitigation strategies is not a desirable and sustainable policy. A commonly accepted political platform is required to negotiate a compromise which emphasizes shared and balanced roles and responsibilities, and a well‐conceived combination of risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies.     

Who Gets an Early Education? Family Income and the Enrollment of Three‐ to Five‐Year‐Olds from 1968 to 2000*

Objectives. Has inequality in access to early education been growing or lessening over time? Methods. Using the October Current Population Survey education supplement from 1968 to 2000, we look at three‐, four‐, and five‐year‐olds' enrollment in early education—including center‐based care, Head Start, nursery school, prekindergarten, and kindergarten. Results. Our analysis shows a strong link between family income and early education enrollment for three‐ and four‐year‐olds, especially when we compare the bottom two and the top two income groups. These differences remain even after controlling for a large variety of factors, including race/ethnicity, maternal employment, family structure, and parental education. Conclusions. Inequality in early education by income group varies by age of child: it is most pronounced for three‐year‐olds, who have been the least likely to benefit from public early childhood education programs; it has diminished in the past decade for four‐year‐olds, who have been increasingly likely to have access to public prekindergarten programs; and it has all but disappeared for the five‐year‐olds, who now largely attend public kindergarten. This pattern suggests a potentially important role for public policy in closing the gap in early education between children of different income groups.     

Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk

We evaluate the effects of disease type and latency on willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce environmental risks of chronic, degenerative disease. Using contingent-valuation data collected from approximately 1,200 respondents in Taiwan, we find that WTP declines with latency between exposure to environmental contaminants and manifestation of any resulting disease, at a 1.5 percent annual rate for a 20 year latency period. WTP to reduce the risk of cancer is estimated to be about one-third larger than WTP to reduce risk of a similar chronic, degenerative disease. The value of risk reduction also depends on the affected organ, environmental pathway, or payment mechanism: estimated WTP to reduce the risk of lung disease due to industrial air pollution is twice as large as WTP to reduce the risk of liver disease due to contaminated drinking water.     

Income security for older people: An Asian perspective

In Asia and the Pacific, as in other developing regions, the continuing growth of the aged population has a great impact on social security programmes generally and, in particular, on the income security of older persons. In societies where traditional support systems are breaking up, their need for social security protection is increasingly important. A system of social security for the elderly population exists in most countries of the region. Many are provident fund schemes, which are basically saving schemes, and their coverage is low. Where social insurance pension schemes exist, the levels of benefits provided are also low. The focus for future development, therefore, lies in converting the savings schemes into multitiered pension schemes, extending their coverage and raising the level of benefits. In this context the critical question concerns the role of the State and the type of schemes used. The need for public pension schemes is great in Asia and the Pacific, where the level of poverty is comparatively high. Building pension schemes, whether public or private, involves a set of issues that need to be addressed. This article considers the systems currently in place and the challenges and limitations faced when considering the future development of social security in this area.     

LEADERSHIP AND ABORIGINAL RECONCILIATION

Calls for greater leadership on the issue of Aboriginal reconciliation are often vague about what they actually mean by ‘leadership’. The most appropriate lens through which to regard leadership on the issue of reconciliation is not the usual notion of leadership‐as‐influence, but instead the theory of ‘adaptive leadership ’, developed by Harvard professor Ronald Heifetz. Applying these ideas to the problems of Aboriginal reconciliation, 1 propose four principles that might promote progress on this difficult and complex issue.     

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The Elusive Search for Racial Equity in Higher Education

In 1965, when affirmative action officially became part of the national consensus to achieve racial social justice, it was based on the compelling justification of establishing equality and remedying the effects of past discrimination. Since then, there has been a slow but steady shift from "equity" to "diversity" as its rationale. The shift has had a negative effect on achieving the original goal of racial equality. The diversity rationale has permitted parallel procedures to evolve that provided majority students with an even larger differential advantage than that conferred on minority students by affirmative action. In addition, we continue to have massive segregation. Minorities are concentrated in second level schools in urban areas, while whites are concentrated in higher quality institutions in the educational suburbs. It is without factual or legal foundation that whites can argue that they (relative to minorities) are the victims of discrimination through unfair and unequal educational policies and practices that determine access to higher education.