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101.
The author of this paper is Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Emhart Corporation. Emhart has worldwide revenues of over $1.8bn and ranks 41st among the 150 largest U.S. multinationals. The author is a foe of interoffice memos and an advocate of face-to-face communication. The author has written and talked extensively on the role of the Chief Executive in the 1980s: thinks business's poor communication with the media may be its own fault; worries about mixing politics and sociology into foreign trade; is concerned that business should properly adjust and adapt to the better educated, more individualistic employee coming into the work force and thinks that business's credibility would improve if it applied its resources more prudently and refrained from trying to solve all of society's problems. 相似文献
102.
Updating Uncertainty in an Integrated Risk Assessment: Conceptual Framework and Methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bayesian methods are presented for updating the uncertainty in the predictions of an integrated Environmental Health Risk Assessment (EHRA) model. The methods allow the estimation of posterior uncertainty distributions based on the observation of different model outputs along the chain of the linked assessment framework. Analytical equations are derived for the case of the multiplicative lognormal risk model where the sequential log outputs (log ambient concentration, log applied dose, log delivered dose, and log risk) are each normally distributed. Given observations of a log output made with a normally distributed measurement error, the posterior distributions of the log outputs remain normal, but with modified means and variances, and induced correlations between successive log outputs and log inputs. The analytical equations for forward and backward propagation of the updates are generally applicable to sums of normally distributed variables. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) procedure is presented to provide an approximate, but more broadly applicable method for numerically updating uncertainty with concurrent backward and forward propagation. Illustrative examples, presented for the multiplicative lognormal model, demonstrate agreement between the analytical and BMC methods, and show how uncertainty updates can propagate through a linked EHRA. The Bayesian updating methods facilitate the pooling of knowledge encoded in predictive models with that transmitted by research outcomes (e.g., field measurements), and thereby support the practice of iterative risk assessment and value of information appraisals. 相似文献
103.
Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide-Tolerant Oilseed Crops 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Martin P. Krayer von Krauss Elizabeth A. Casman Mitchell J. Small 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1515-1527
One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems. 相似文献
104.
European River Floods in a Changing World 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
James K. Mitchell 《Risk analysis》2003,23(3):567-574
Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains. 相似文献
105.
What is society? Social thought and the arts of government 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Dean M 《The British journal of sociology》2010,61(4):677-695
Following conservative politicians, neoliberal philosophers and radical critics, different strands of social science, including those using Foucault's governmentality approach, joined the questioning of the salience of 'society' and ideas of 'the social' over the last decades. When the social reappeared, it was often in the moral domains of community and civil society. This argument re-evaluates the contribution of Foucauldian histories, or 'genealogies', of the social to these fundamental questions. Drawing upon them, it attends to their arguments concerning the place of social thought on the modern episteme in relation to economics, the emergence of the idea of 'society' with the modern arts of government of the state, and the formation of the 'social question'. The argument here allows that preconditions of formation of 'society' lie in the legal and political techniques of the territorial sovereign state. However, the literature under investigation indicates the implicit normativity of an idea of 'society' as a 'problematic unity' and the enduring necessity of a social domain in a law-governed state with a relatively independent economic sphere. This discussion thus seeks to contribute to the wider revaluation and redeployment of these terms in today's context. 相似文献
106.
To determine the association between domestic partnership status and risk behaviors for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection, we analyzed data from a population-based interviewer-administered telephone survey of 2,881 gay men in San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Chicago conducted in November 1996 to February 1998. Men in domestic partnerships had a statistically significantly lower prevalence of multiple partnerships, "one-night stands," and unprotected anal intercourse with a non-primary partner than either men with steady partners not identified as domestic partners or men without a steady partner. These findings were independent of age. Men in domestic partnerships had decreased risk behaviors for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection, suggesting but not proving, that conferring legal status to same-sex unions might decrease sexual risk behavior. 相似文献
107.
Attempted suicide among transgender persons: The influence of gender-based discrimination and victimization 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
To determine the independent predictors of attempted suicide among transgender persons we interviewed 392 male-to-female (MTF) and 123 female-to-male (FTM) individuals. Participants were recruited through targeted sampling, respondent-driven sampling, and agency referrals in San Francisco. The prevalence of attempted suicide was 32% (95% CI = 28% to 36%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis younger age (<25 years), depression, a history of substance abuse treatment, a history of forced sex, gender-based discrimination, and gender-based victimization were independently associated with attempted suicide. Suicide prevention interventions for transgender persons are urgently needed, particularly for young people. Medical, mental health, and social service providers should address depression, substance abuse, and forced sex in an attempt to reduce suicidal behaviors among transgender persons. In addition, increasing societal acceptance of the transgender community and decreasing gender-based prejudice may help prevent suicide in this highly stigmatized population. 相似文献
108.
How do youth in foster care experience non-death loss? Drawing upon the theories of ambiguous loss, symbolic loss, and disenfranchised grief, this applied theoretical article integrates research findings to address how youth experience loss, grief, and trauma in foster care. Youth’s reports illustrate experiences of non-death loss, the impact of non-death loss on psychological and emotional well-being, and how non-death losses are disenfranchised and enfranchised within the foster care system. Recommendations are made that child welfare agencies consider how their practices and policies can be enhanced to meet the needs of grieving youth in foster care. 相似文献
109.
110.