简论民间信贷成因及其治理对策——从金融监管者角度分析

从金融监管角度看 ,民间信贷蔓延的根源在于滞后的农村金融体制 ,而民间信贷蔓延的外部条件则在于金融监管的法制不健全和手段、方法的落后。因此 ,治理民间信贷的根本出路是改革现有的农村金融体制 ,建立以合作金融为主体的农村金融新体制。     

Portfolio value-at-risk estimation for spot chartering decisions under changing trade patterns: A copula approach

Evolving geopolitical relationships between countries (especially between China and the United States) in recent years have highlighted dynamically changing trade patterns across the globe, all of which elevate risk and uncertainty for transport service providers. In order to mitigate risks, shipowners and operators must be able to estimate risks appropriately; one potentially promising method of doing so is through the value-at-risk (VaR) method. VaR describes the worst loss a portfolio is likely to sustain, which will not be exceeded over a target time horizon at a given level of confidence. This article proposes a copula-based GARCH model to estimate the joint multivariate distribution, which is a key component in VaR estimation. We show that the copula model can capture the VaR more successfully, as compared with the traditional method of calculation. As an empirical study, the expected portfolio VaR is examined when a shipowner chooses among Panamax soybean trading routes under a condition of reduced trade volumes between the United States and China due to the ongoing trade turmoil. This study serves as one of the very few papers in the literature on shipping portfolio VaR analysis. The results have significant implications for shipowners regarding fleet repositioning, decision making, and risk management.