Conditional moving linear regression: Modeling the recruitment process for ALLHAT

Effective recruitment is a prerequisite for successful execution of a clinical trial. ALLHAT, a large hypertension treatment trial (N = 42,418), provided an opportunity to evaluate adaptive modeling of recruitment processes using conditional moving linear regression. Our statistical modeling of recruitment, comparing Brownian and fractional Brownian motion, indicates that fractional Brownian motion combined with moving linear regression is better than classic Brownian motion in terms of higher conditional probability of achieving a global recruitment goal in 4-week ahead projections. Further research is needed to evaluate how recruitment modeling can assist clinical trialists in planning and executing clinical trials.     

畜牧业改变气候——澳洲打响同牲畜的减排战斗

有许多众所周知的方法可以减少二氧化碳的排放,例如:减少石化燃料的使用、使用太阳能或风力等再生能源、开省油的车子或替代能源车、使用省电的电子产品,并切实做到减量、重复使用和回收等。然而,当前有关全球变暖的辩论几乎都集中在能源及交通运输方面。     

‘The extreme end of a spectrum of violence’: physical abuse,hegemony and resistance in British residential care

While researching the history of traditional child care institutions – children's homes, orphanages, industrial schools and reformatories – the author was impressed by the similarities of regimen across the spectrum of traditional care. Underpinning all forms of care was a severe discipline which often became abusive. Sexual abuse was also reasonably common. There were differences but it is the similarities which are stressed in this article, which seeks reasons for the perceived sameness. Children in care came mostly from the same deprived social background, and no matter what the intentions of the carers, traditional care involved a confrontation with cherished working class values which many of the children were bound to resist. Resistance was met by severe staff reaction; hence the violent undercurrent. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative Methods for Computing the Sensitivity of Complex Surveillance Systems

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.     

The Aesthetics of Aircraft Safety Cards: Spatial Negotiations and Affective Mobilities in Diagrammatic Instructions

Instructional diagrams encountered during transit, such as the aircraft safety card, employ a range of visual elements that direct us how to move and what actions we need to undertake. However, instructions are not always easy to decipher and comprehension rates suggest that there is potential for misinterpretation. The complexity of instructions and mismatching of visual techniques give rise to an aesthetics of transit that coordinates spatial experiences and movements. Using examples from aircraft safety cards and artworks based on this format, this paper analyses how ‘transit aesthetics’ can give rise to affective experiences of spatial and mobile relationships.     

Passion,Intimacy, and Commitment in Casual Sexual Relationships in a Canadian Sample of Emerging Adults

Research on casual sexual relationships (CSRs) among emerging adults is prevalent, yet our empirical and theoretical knowledge of relationship processes involved in these relationships is limited. The present study’s objective was to compare four CSR partner types (acquaintance, friend, non-dating partner, ex-romantic partner) on passion, intimacy, and commitment, the components of Sternberg’s triangular theory of love. A total of 441 Canadians aged 18–25 years who were not in a romantic relationship, and who reported having had more than one sexual contact with their last CSR partner, completed an online survey. Across all partner types, passion was highest, followed by intimacy and commitment. Levels of passion, intimacy, and commitment generally increased with partner familiarity. However, CSR partner type differences on the three components were partially explained by CSR components (i.e., frequency of sexual activity, frequency of social activity, whether partners saw each other with the main goal of having sex, sexual exclusivity agreement, and hopes about the relationship). Results are consistent with CSRs’ emphasis on sexuality, and, to a lesser extent, emotions. However, they challenge the mainstream and scientific conflation of CSRs with an absence of emotional bond, commitment, or love.