The dangerous quest for certainty in market forecasting

Over the past 4 years, the Pharmaceutical Division of CIBA-GEIGY has developed a series of market forecasts in probabilistic terms, explicitly incorporating the principal uncertainties affecting the future sales of new pharmaceutical products. Such probabilistic forecasting methods have now been applied successfully by many pharmaceutical companies, including CIBA-GEIGY, Hoffmann-La Roche, and Sandoz. At CIBA-GEIGY this forecasting process has assisted the Divisional Management Committee with various business decisions, and in particular with capacity expansion planning. The benefits of this approach have been aptly described by the member of that committee responsible for production worldwide, Dr. Hans M. Götz, ‘Since we have used the probability curve for active substance requirements, the most valuable result has not been that we get now any better single number, such as mean, mode or any other figure, but that we have the curve at all. No longer do production people and market forecasters accuse each other because of a “wrong” figure. Both sides are aware of the uncertainties and therefore their dialogue has become more constructive. Decisions are made and the results are reviewed in light of the curve that represents our best judgment when action is required. Thus our principal benefit has been the improvement in the quality and co-ordination of management effort in production planning and resource allocation.’ This paper explains in detail the steps needed to prepare a probabilistic market forecast and demonstrates how such a forecast can yield significantly different and better production capacity decisions and improved insight into the related process of market planning.     

Introduction to meta-cognitive processes of thought separation: an illustrative overview / Introducción a los procesos metacognitivos de separación del propio pensamiento: una visión general ilustrativa

Abstract

The main goal of this introductory article is to provide an overview of some of the main empirical illustrations relevant to the psychology of separating from one’s thoughts. Separating from our own thoughts often involves thinking about our own thoughts (meta-cognition). We describe meta-cognitive processes relevant to how individuals calibrate and control the impact of their thoughts on judgement and behaviour. Amongst other things, this special issue presents us with an opportunity to examine the similarities and differences between key contributions focused on correction and suppression processes, decentering approaches and separating from thoughts by using a variety of techniques. In addition to these paradigms covered in the articles of this special issue, we review other approaches that also involve reducing the impact of thoughts, with special attention to invalidation processes. Additional frameworks relevant to mental separation included in this review are those relevant to non-evaluative observation of thoughts, psychological distance and mental hygiene.     

Subtle priming of subtraction versus addition: a spill-over effect of math / La inducción sutil de sumar vs. restar: un efecto indirecto de las matemáticas

Abstract

Studies on bias correction have often used blatant inductions to motivate people to reduce the mental impact of perceived biases. In the current research, we test a relatively unexplored, subtle way of inducing bias correction based on the activation of different calculative mindsets. Across two studies, participants were exposed to an advertisement introducing a new consumer product delivered by a credible or non-credible source. Then, as part of an ostensibly unrelated study, participants completed mathematical operations that involved subtracting or adding. Study 1 revealed that when participants were primed with an addition calculative mindset, an expert source elicited more favourable attitudes towards the product than a non-expert source. This pattern illustrates the traditional effect of source credibility on persuasion. In contrast, within the subtraction calculative mindset condition, persuasion was no different between an expert and a non-expert source. These results were obtained exclusively under high thinking conditions (e.g., for participants high in Need for Cognition). This finding can be interpreted as if the effect of source credibility was subtracted from the evaluative judgement. Study 2 replicated this two-way interaction using different materials and inductions. The present research has implications for bias correction, procedural priming, persuasion and beyond.     

Towards an adequate and sustainable replacement rate in defined benefit pension systems: The case of Spain

The main objective of this article is to determine, based on internal data, replacement rates for a defined benefit pension system, with two aims: the adequacy of pensions – measured in terms of the expenditure of retirees – and the sustainability of the system. For this purpose two instruments are used: the internal rate of return, and techniques based on systems of notional accounts. These figures, derived from internal data, will serve, by comparison with the replacement rate of the system, to assess whether the system tends more towards adequacy or sustainability. The system studied is that of Spain.     

Are Inter‐Minority Contacts Guided by the Same Mechanisms as Minority–Majority Contacts? A Comparative Study of Two Types of Inter‐Ethnic Ties in the Netherlands

Research on inter‐ethnic contacts in European countries has mainly focused on the interaction between ethnic minorities and the native majority. Our contribution is to examine inter‐minority contacts and compare them to minority–majority contacts. Drawing on a theory of preferences, opportunities, and third parties, we expected some determinants of contacts with natives to relate similarly and others differently to inter‐minority contacts. Using data on four non‐Western minorities in the Netherlands, we found that education, Dutch language proficiency, and outgroup size are positively associated with both inter‐minority and minority–majority contacts. Further, occupational status relates positively to contacts with natives and negatively to contacts with other minorities, whereas ingroup identification is positively associated with inter‐minority contacts and negatively with contacts with natives. These diverging findings underline the importance of studying interaction between minorities as a separate phenomenon.     

From the Replacement Rate to the Synthetic Indicator: A Global and Gender Measure of Pension Adequacy in the European Union

To measure the adequacy of pension systems in the world, one of the most commonly used indicators is the Replacement Rate. Our work is based on the statement that this indicator is imperfect itself to measure adequacy because it does not collect the multiple dimensions that it involves while being a static measurement. Consequently and based on the data provided by “The 2015 Pension Adequacy Report: current and future income adequacy in old age in the European Union” of the European Commission, in this paper we select a set of variables that are considered representative to measure the adequacy of pension systems from a dynamic and multidimensional perspective, and based on them, a synthetic adequacy indicator is developed. This indicator aims to compare European pension systems from the adequacy objective and to carry out continuous monitoring of the effects that the reform processes may have on the adequacy of pensions. The analysis is completed with the calculation of a gender indicator on pension adequacy for the European Union (EU-28) which identifies the still existing gap between men and women.     

Systemic approach to supply chain management through the viable system model and the theory of constraints

In today’s environment, Supply Chain Management (SCM) takes a key role in business strategy. A major challenge is achieving high customer service level under a reasonable operating expense and investment. The traditional approach to SCM, based on local optimisation, is a proven cause of meaningful inefficiencies – e.g. the Bullwhip Effect – that obstruct the throughput. The systemic (holistic) approach, based on global optimisation, has been shown to perform significantly better. Nevertheless, it is not widely expanded, since the implementation of an efficient solution requires a suitable scheme. Under these circumstances, this paper proposes an integrative framework for supply chain collaboration aimed at increasing its efficiency. This is based on the combined application of the Beer’s Viable System Model (VSM) and the Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints (TOC). VSM defines the systemic structure of the supply chain and orchestrates the collaboration, while TOC implements the systemic behaviour – i.e. integrate processes – and define performance measures. To support this proposal, we detail its application to the widely used Beer Game scenario. In addition, we discuss its implementation in real supply chains, highlighting the key points that must be considered.     

The Trauma Outcome Process Assessment Model: A Structural Equation Model Examination of Adjustment

This investigation sought to operationalize a comprehensive theoretical model, the Trauma Outcome Process Assessment, and test it empirically with structural equation modeling. The Trauma Outcome Process Assessment reflects a robust body of research and incorporates known ecological factors (e.g., family dynamics, social support) to explain internalizing distress (e.g., anxiety, depression), externalizing distress (e.g., aggression), and recovery outcomes following traumatic events. Results revealed that expected relationships among the variables were significantly related in the expected direction, and the measures mapped well onto the expected latent constructs. Following optimal specification of the relationships within the Trauma Outcome Process Assessment, structural equation modeling revealed strong support for the Trauma Outcome Process Assessment as a comprehensive identification and treatment model to explain the differential outcomes of those exposed to traumatic stressors.