造假行为的传播与遏制——基于进化博弈模拟的研究

借鉴进化博弈的思想,一个新的模型建立起来用以模拟造假行为的传播过程,以期找到其广泛传播的路径,并寻找遏制的方法。模型赋予了个体学习的能力,结果显示惩罚程度对造假行为的传播没有影响,但抽查概率却是决定性的。为了提高查处的效率,"连带检查"机制被加入到模型中,即对造假者周围邻居进行检查并施以同样的惩罚。这种机制能够在抽取概率为26%时达到消除造假者的目的,相比之下,没有"连带检查"时必须把抽取概率提高到80%才能达到消除造假者的目的。     

Hazard rate ordering of the second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR samples

In this paper, we compare the hazard rate functions of the second-order statistics arising from two sets of independent multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates (PHR) samples. It is proved that the submajorization order between the sample size vectors together with the supermajorization order between the hazard rate vectors imply the hazard rate ordering between the corresponding second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR random variables. The results established here provide theoretical guidance both for the winner's price for the bid in the second-price reverse auction in auction theory and fail-safe system design in reliability. Some numerical examples are also provided for illustration.     

公共资源交易领域利益冲突及防治

近年来随着政府采购范围和工程招投标领域的日益扩展,公共资源交易领域腐败现象频发,成为利益冲突易发多发的重点领域。在公共资源交易过程中公职人员自由裁量权滥觞、利益冲突防范机制缺失和委托—代理运行失灵引致利益冲突的发生,而利益冲突直接或间接产生诱发公职人员腐败、侵害公共部门公信力、激化社会矛盾等负面影响。通过健全公共资源交易领域制度体系、完善公共资源交易领域多元防范机制和厘清公共资源交易领域政府角色扮演等措施,才能实现该领域利益冲突问题的有效防治。     

美国中小企业技术创新计划管理实践及启示——以TIP为例

美国技术创新计划(TIP)支持有科技优势的中小企业进行目标明确的变革性技术研发,以促进中小企业的技术创新和提升美国的竞争力。它的资助与管理具有支持企业面向国家需求的变革性研究、设立专门的咨询委员会、坚持以同行评议进行项目遴选等基本特点,以及具有把扁平化的组织管理与"跨办公室"工作模式相结合、"自上而下"与"自下而上"相结合、实行全过程管理与结果管理相结合等工作机制。它为我国科技计划管理改革带来的重要启示在于要面向国家产业需求,支持和引导中小企业的变革性技术研究;倡建中小企业创新联盟,鼓励高校、科研院所为中小企业服务;加强后评估研究工作,重视影响评估对科技计划管理的作用。     

基于分权视角的城市规划管理体制模式及改革建议

关于我国的城市规划管理权限一直存在＂集中＂与＂放权＂的讨论,并且城市规划管理体制也存在差异。通过对全国部分城市的规划管理体制进行梳理,从市、区（县、市）两级分权视角总结出我国城市规划管理体制中的＂垂直型＂、＂半垂直型＂和＂非垂直型＂三种典型模式,分别以南京、北京和上海为案例分析三种规划管理体制典型模式的主要特点和事权划分,并对其各自的优缺点进行比较,最后提出我国城市规划管理体制改革的若干建议,包括将规划决策权＂上收＂与实施管理重心＂下移＂、建立＂市—区—镇（街）＂三级规划管理机构体系、整合市区两级规划部门内部机构设置形成＂大处室＂和＂大科室＂以及完善城市规划委员会制度等。     

Global Governance and State Governance: Two Strategic Considerations in Contemporary China

Governance is a kind of holistic governance and the notion of governing holistically should be established. The holisticity of governance is reflected in the unity and coordination between value rationality and instrumental rationality, normative appeal and practical appeal as well as global governance and state governance. Global and state governances are two strategic considerations in contemporary China. Actively participating in global governance and rationally promoting state governance is the rational choice of contemporary China, which plays a unique and significant role in realizing the social transformation and national rejuvenation and modernization of contemporary China. Deepening state governance with the help of global governance and promoting global governance with the support of state governance is the basic idea and dimension of understanding and grasping the interaction, coordination and overall planning between the two. The restrictions and effects of global governance on state governance are mainly reflected in such considerations as objects, mechanisms, concepts and interests of governance, and modernization of state governance system and improvement of governance capacity can promote and deepen global governance in a more effective way.     

中国基层社会治理政策变迁:演化、特征与经验——基于1978-2019年国务院政策文本分析

基层社会治理是国家治理体系的重要基础,中国基层社会治理政策随着经济社会发展在国家治理体系变迁中逐渐形成了独特的治理方略和中国经验。基层社会治理政策涉及的领域众多,为准确提炼出其核心内容,本文基于文献关键词的主题聚类结果,选取改革开放以来国务院关于基层社会治理的政策文本,通过发文时间、类型分布等计量分析中国基层社会治理政策变迁总体脉络。运用NLPIR汉语分词系统对政策标题进行文本深度挖掘,根据政策热点主题和政策变迁趋势等,将中国基层社会治理政策演化分为恢复重建阶段、宏观调控阶段、重心转移阶段和系统推进阶段。基于多源流理论探析政策变迁中问题源流、政治源流与政策源流的耦合特征,发现中国基层社会治理政策从形式、动力、主体和目标四个层面逐渐形成了突发性变迁与渐进性变迁并存、内生性驱动和外在性拉动结合、党依法执政与政府依法行政共同推进、坚持以人民为中心和问题为导向创新的中国经验,为发挥中国基层社会治理的政策优势提供有益借鉴。     

Reweighted estimators for additive hazard model with censoring indicators missing at random

Survival data with missing censoring indicators are frequently encountered in biomedical studies. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for this type of data under the additive hazard model. Reweighting methods based on simple and augmented inverse probability are proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. Furthermore, we provide a numerical technique for checking adequacy of the fitted model with missing censoring indicators. Our simulation results show that the proposed estimators outperform the simple and augmented inverse probability weighted estimators without reweighting. The proposed methods are illustrated by analyzing a dataset from a breast cancer study.     

Against the Law: Labor Protests in China's Rustbelt and Sunbelt

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辛亥前后的浙东士绅与兴学活动

浙东地区素来文化发达,人才辈出,这与它历史上注重教育有很大的关系.清末国势衰危,改革呼声日高,为培养人才,各地纷纷开办新式学堂,其中以地方士绅举办的民立学堂占多数.此文分析了辛亥前后浙东士绅阶层的转变与兴学活动及其影响.