黄帝后裔

慕容鲜卑起初没有自己的文字,记录任何事情都要依靠口口相传。从这样的传述中,他们知道自己为黄帝的后人。明代杨慎在《升庵诗话·紫》篇中说:“慕容氏自     

京郊民俗生态旅游发展探讨——以怀柔区北宅村为例

民俗生态旅游是京郊乡村旅游的一种重要形式。本文运用参与式快速评估(PRA)方法,结合访谈和问卷调查,从村落尺度的微观角度,对北宅村民俗生态旅游发展现状进行了快速诊断。针对基础设施和村域规划、客源可持续性、产品设计和营销、内部管理和运营机制、村域协调发展和收入均衡等方面的问题,提出了相关的对策建议。     

多元化背景下行政主体之建构

行政主体概念最早源于西方国家,在这些国家里,行政主体制度既是社会利益多元的产物,也是行政分权和自治的法律技术,同时还是多元社会里行政实体制度的基础性内容。我国的行政主体理论形成于20世纪80年代,由于学术界缺乏对国外制度的详细考察,更由于我国没有行政分权和自治的实践,因而在引入行政主体概念的同时,也对其实质内容作了颠覆性改造。原始意义的行政主体被略去,独立的行政利益没有被作为行政主体的判断标准。我国行政主体理论对应的是一元利益框架下公共行政的需要,今天,经济转型带来了社会多元利益格局的形成,现行行政主体理论的局限性已日益凸现。改革传统的行政主体理论,建构以多元行政利益为基础的新型行政主体制度,是中国行政主体制度的发展方向,也为我国国情之所需。     

论应用伦理学的判例模式

应用伦理学的"判例模式"可以取代日益受到质疑的"工程模式"。"判例模式"的运用是在伦理委员会这个"道德实验室"里进行的。它指通过一定的程序,在先前的与现实的道德事件的比较权衡中来解决道德困境,作出道德决策的过程。应用伦理学的"判例模式"的确立,有助于通过一种循序渐进的方法,实现道德与社会需要的动态统一与均衡、创造出新的道德结构。     

从和谐社会视角重新解读邓小平的社会主义本质论

社会主义本质与特征是社会主义内在属性与外在形式的关系。从邓小平的社会主义本质论看,社会主义本质实质上反映的是社会主义和谐社会的目标,它侧重于回答什么是社会主义和谐社会;社会主义特征实质上体现的是社会主义的手段,它侧重于回答怎样建设社会主义和谐社会。以和谐社会为视角重新解读邓小平的社会主义本质论,旨在科学界定社会主义和谐社会的本质和特征。     

BOT项目中特许经营人的风险防范及利益保护研究

以BOT为代表的特许经营是一种公私合作的法律制度,其成功运作首先需要民间资本的参与热情.如果民间资本由于风险过大而没有兴趣进入公共事业领域,特许经营制度将丧失存在的前提和基础.在我国实践中,由于特许经营制度不发达,BOT项目中特许经营人承受着大量风险,尤其是处于优势地位的政府造成的风险直接影响到特许经营人的合法权益.本文在全面分析我国实践中特许经营人可能遭遇的风险基础上,借鉴国外特许经营人风险防范和利益保护的经验,从转变思想观念、确立保护原则、加强法律制度建构、完善立法以及配套制度等几个方面提出建议,以促进BOT项目中特许经营人风险防范及利益保护机制的建立健全.     

教育对犯罪率的影响研究

在理论上,教育同时具有犯罪预防效应和犯罪扩张效应,因此,教育对犯罪率的净影响是不确定的,同时,不同层次的教育对犯罪率的影响也并非是单调的。文章以中国2000～2008年的地区数据为样本,研究发现,总体的教育扩张显著降低了中国的犯罪率,这主要受益于小学、初中和高中教育,且其犯罪预防效应随着教育层次的提高而递增;但大学教育不仅未能降低中国的犯罪率,反而还显著促增了诈骗一类的高技能型犯罪。     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

A Starting Point for Navigating the World of Daily Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy sports, particularly the daily variety in which new lineups are selected each day, are a rapidly growing industry. The two largest companies in the daily fantasy business, DraftKings and Fanduel, have been valued as high as $2 billion. This research focuses on the development of a complete system for daily fantasy basketball, including both the prediction of player performance and the construction of a team. First, a Bayesian random effects model is used to predict an aggregate measure of daily NBA player performance. The predictions are then used to construct teams under the constraints of the game, typically related to a fictional salary cap and player positions. Permutation based and K-nearest neighbors approaches are compared in terms of the identification of “successful” teams—those who would be competitive more often than not based on historical data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system by comparing our predictions to those from a well-known analytics website, and by simulating daily competitions over the course of the 2015–2016 season. Our results show an expected profit of approximately $9,000 on an initial $500 investment using the K-nearest neighbors approach, a 36% increase relative to using the permutation-based approach alone. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.