Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

公共卫生支出、健康结果与卫生投入政策——基于189个国家和地区的面板门槛分析（1995—2011年）

利用189个国家和地区1995—2011年的数据实证检验公共卫生支出规模对一个国家的健康结果（婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命）的影响，结果表明，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重对婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命的影响具有门槛效应，门槛值分别位于1.9%和6.62%。分段回归结果显示，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重低于1.9%时，公共卫生投入对出生时的平均期望寿命没有显著影响，对婴儿死亡率的影响较弱；超过1.9%后，公共卫生投入的规模效应开始体现，对健康结果指标的影响均显著增强；超过6.62%后，公共卫生投入对婴儿死亡率的影响不再显著，对出生时平均期望寿命的弹性系数不再变化，单位边际贡献不再增加。中国当前政府卫生投入规模仍然较低，需要继续增大公共资金投入、降低个人卫生支出比重。     

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Categories of Physical Activities with Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being in Taiwanese Older Adults

Physical activity takes place in different social contexts such as leisure, home, and work. However, the differential associations of these distinct categories of activity with aspects of well-being have rarely been investigated. This study was designed to estimate independent associations of (a) leisure-time, (b) domestic and (c) work-related physical activities with subjective well-being in older adults. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 with 2,295 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Among them, 307 participants were selected for a 3-year follow-up study in 2012. The results based on cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses demonstrated that leisure-time physical activity, after multivariate adjustment, was positively associated with five dimensions of well-being, including ‘physical’, ‘psychological’, ‘independence’, ‘learning and growth’, and ‘social’ well-being. Household physical activity was positively associated only with ‘social’ well-being. Occupational physical activity was not related to any dimension of well-being. The study suggests that associations between physical activity and dimensions of subjective well-being during later life are dependent on the social context in which the activity takes place. This study indicates that physical activity taken as leisure has greatest potential to enhance the quality of life of older adults.     

基于双因子的公平偏好模型研究

基本公平偏好模型虽然能较好地解释现实中存在的“投桃报李”等互惠互利现象,但却忽略了这样一个基础问题:这种“公平”比较的基点本身是否满足“公平性”.文章通过对基本公平偏好模型的修正,构建了双因子收入公平偏好模型,从而弥补和修正了原有模型中存在的基础假设缺失的难题.由双因子模型可得结论:双因子呈反向变化关系;双因子放大了净收入变化所带来的效用改变程度.其研究的意义在于:双因子模型能够解释基本公平偏好所不能解释的一些激励问题;定量说明了交易中委托方应当如何根据代理方双因子的特征(而非仅依据公平偏好单因子),提供合理收益分配方案,以促进合作成功.     

基于任务驱动模式的模拟导游课程教学

任务驱动教学模式能引导学生围绕任务进行探索学习,学生在完成任务的过程中掌握知识、培养能力、训练创新思维方面效果明显,符合模拟导游课程特点.探讨了任务驱动教学模式在模拟导游教学中的实践前提、具体措施及实践意义.     

“Organizing Creativity: Enabling Creative Output,Process, and Organizing Practices”

How individuals can exercise creativity in collectivities is unclear. We thus need to more thoroughly investigate the ‘black box’ of organizational creativity. Future research should consider creativity in a variety of organizations, rather than just those that are known for creative outputs or practices. In addition, we need to examine what I call everyday, relational, and proto‐institutional forms of organizational creativity. Intra‐ and inter‐organizational aspects can enhance or depress such organizational creativity: (1) within the organization’s boundary: internal interactions among organizational members and (2) outside the organization’s boundary: the surrounding organizational environment or field, which include competing or supporting organizations, other organizational actors, and the state. These two aspects pose dilemmas about how to organize that can constrain or enhance organizational creativity. In addressing these dilemmas, organizations must mediate between under‐ and over‐organizing extremes. Organizations can enable creativity by incorporating changing interests and conditions. Organizations can eschew convention, increase rank‐and‐file involvement with corresponding authority, tolerate ambiguity and deviance, encourage improvisation, and support members’ diverse experiences and perspectives.     

分段启动压力对宝浪油田驱动压差的影响

摘要：渗透率低于 10 mD 的特低渗储层与平均渗透率大于 20 mD 的低渗储层开发技术政策界限和开发方案制定等有很大的差别，渗透率越低，其启动压力成倍增加，这就影响了开发技术和方案的制定。应用分段启动压力梯度进行分段计算并进行对比，计算结果表明：用同一启动压力梯度计算的结果不符合实际情况，而应用分段启动压力梯度计算的结果更能很好地反映特低渗储层的实际情况；井距对较高渗透率的驱动压力计算影响并不大，但对于特低渗储层的驱动压力计算则影响很大。     

Symmetrical design for symmetrical global sensitivity analysis of model output

Symmetrical global sensitivity analysis (SGSA) can help practitioners focusing on the symmetrical terms of inputs whose uncertainties have an impact on the model output, which allows reducing the complexity of the model. However, there remains the challenging problem of finding an efficient method to get symmetrical global sensitivity indices (SGSI) when the functional form of the symmetrical terms is unknown, including numerical and non-parametric situations. In this study, we propose a novel sampling plan, called symmetrical design, for SGSA. As a preliminary experiment for model feature extracting, such plan offers the virtue of run-size economy due to its closure respective to the given group. Using the design, we give estimation methods of SGSI as well as their asymptotic properties respectively for numerical model and non-parametrical model directly by the model outputs, and further propose a significance test for SGSI in non-parametric situation. A case study for a benchmark of GSA and a real data analysis show the effectiveness of the proposed design.     

比较优势动态递减概率模型及检验

在比较优势的持续时间是随机变量的条件下,文章运用不确定性数学方法和规范方法,推出了比较优势递减定理,认为比较优势会随着时间增加而递减,具有发散效应,即比较优势不会被锁定.推出的比较优势“无记忆性”定理表明,各国遵循比较优势发展国际贸易是正确的,国际贸易会让各个国家自动寻找到适合本国的比较优势.通过定义比较优势逆转概率,运用实证方法进行研究,研究表明比较优势基本符合比较优势递减定理和“无记忆性”定理内容,认为中国传统劳动密集型优势在逐渐减小,产业结构调整非常成功,逐渐拥有资本密集型优势和技术密集型优势,产业结构越来越合理.