Assessment of modeling longitudinal binary data based on graphical methods

Longitudinal categorical data are commonly applied in a variety of fields and are frequently analyzed by generalized estimating equation (GEE) method. Prior to making further inference based on the GEE model, the assessment of model fit is crucial. Graphical techniques have long been in widespread use for assessing the model adequacy. We develop alternative graphical approaches utilizing plots of marginal model-checking condition and local mean deviance to assess the GEE model with logit link for longitudinal binary responses. The applications of the proposed procedures are illustrated through two longitudinal binary datasets.     

上海西南地区形成发展热点研究

强化上海西南地区发展特质,应以先进制造业引领打造长三角制造业标杆,建设"上海制造"品牌重要承载区.加快头部企业和高端人才引入,提升产业链带动能力.在企业引入方面,推进"生物医药、美丽健康、绿色化工、节能环保、新型显示、集成电路"为核心的具有牵引力和影响力的重大项目向该区域高度集聚,建设高品质产业集聚区,扩大头部企业在沪产能.借助产业联盟等形式,建立园区内企业供需对接、政企交流平台,打造稳固的产业生态.     

关于提升农村贫困地区教育公共服务能力的思考

通过分析农村贫困地区教育公共服务的现状及其对农村贫困地区持续性发展的重要影响与意义,深度解读农村贫困地区的教育短板带来的严重后果与影响,并针对这些不容忽视的现实问题,对提升农村贫困地区的教育公共服务能力给出合理化建议.     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

新世纪以来中国农村扶贫开发面临的困境

我国农村扶贫开发的成绩是骄人的,改革开放以来农村扶贫取得了举世公认的成果,贫困人口大规模缩减,生活水平大幅度提高,贫困地区的基础设施建设成效显著.但由于环境的制约和经济社会发展不平衡,我国农村扶贫开发仍然面临着严峻的挑战.本文着眼于新世纪以来农村扶贫面临的困境,并进行较深入的剖析.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

民国苏州浴室业发展述论

民国苏州的浴室主要由客籍人士经营,为本地人提供服务。对比上海、扬州等地,苏州浴室业的经营方式、理念和技术设备相对落后。苏州浴室的分布明显受到商业资本不断集中、厂矿等现代工业大发展的影响,依附在以经济和现代交通为轴心的商业圈中。在动荡环境中,苏州浴室业仍有所适应和发展。     

The Longitudinal Relationships Between Basic Psychological Needs Satisfaction at School and School-Related Subjective Well-Being in Adolescents

Situated within a positive psychology perspective, this study aimed at examining the nature and directionality of longitudinal relationships between basic psychological needs satisfaction at school and adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. A total of 576 students (40.5 male and 36.8 % students in junior high school) completed measures of adolescent students’ basic psychological needs at school and school-related subjective well-being at two time points, 6 weeks apart. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling showed significant bidirectional longitudinal relationships between autonomy, relatedness, and competence needs satisfaction and school satisfaction. Furthermore, significant bidirectional relationships were observed between competence need satisfaction and positive affect in school. The findings provided important evidence of the roles of adolescents’ different types of needs satisfaction, experienced specifically during school, in adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. The findings also helped extend the positive psychology perspective to the relatively neglected context of education.     

抗战前后刘湘的政治抉择新论

对刘湘的评价长期以抗日战争为分野,形成二元对立的状态:抗战之前刘湘被视为“反动军阀”,之后则被誉为抗日“爱国将领”的模范式人物.其实,刘湘一生的政治选择具有内在的一致性而非简单的“转变”:不管是在军阀混战还是在抗战时期,其身上均伴随有四川军阀“统一全川”和“川人治川”的观念,极力维护自己在四川的统治地位,即便是对抗日问题的选择,同样是对于自身利益和国家利益的综合考量,即在“救国”的目的之外,还希望通过抗日来抵制蒋介石对四川的控制.而当时国家主义与地方主义升降变迁所造成的国家局势变化,是刘湘选择出川抗日背后重要的时代原因.