Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

公共卫生支出、健康结果与卫生投入政策——基于189个国家和地区的面板门槛分析（1995—2011年）

利用189个国家和地区1995—2011年的数据实证检验公共卫生支出规模对一个国家的健康结果（婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命）的影响，结果表明，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重对婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命的影响具有门槛效应，门槛值分别位于1.9%和6.62%。分段回归结果显示，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重低于1.9%时，公共卫生投入对出生时的平均期望寿命没有显著影响，对婴儿死亡率的影响较弱；超过1.9%后，公共卫生投入的规模效应开始体现，对健康结果指标的影响均显著增强；超过6.62%后，公共卫生投入对婴儿死亡率的影响不再显著，对出生时平均期望寿命的弹性系数不再变化，单位边际贡献不再增加。中国当前政府卫生投入规模仍然较低，需要继续增大公共资金投入、降低个人卫生支出比重。     

慈善与慈善组织的秩序维度与政策选择

人是生活在秩序维度的，人的生命的价值，尤其是劳动力的价值，与处于不同秩序维度有关系。公共慈善也是如此。它有原始秩序的维度，也有扩展秩序的维度，在不同的维度里，有不同的价值。从特朗普家族慈善基金会的命运，可以见出慈善和慈善组织涉及到的不同维度秩序的冲突。更好地发展慈善和慈善组织，需要解决冲突，在不同的秩序维度里，处理好各个方面的关系。     

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Categories of Physical Activities with Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being in Taiwanese Older Adults

Physical activity takes place in different social contexts such as leisure, home, and work. However, the differential associations of these distinct categories of activity with aspects of well-being have rarely been investigated. This study was designed to estimate independent associations of (a) leisure-time, (b) domestic and (c) work-related physical activities with subjective well-being in older adults. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 with 2,295 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Among them, 307 participants were selected for a 3-year follow-up study in 2012. The results based on cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses demonstrated that leisure-time physical activity, after multivariate adjustment, was positively associated with five dimensions of well-being, including ‘physical’, ‘psychological’, ‘independence’, ‘learning and growth’, and ‘social’ well-being. Household physical activity was positively associated only with ‘social’ well-being. Occupational physical activity was not related to any dimension of well-being. The study suggests that associations between physical activity and dimensions of subjective well-being during later life are dependent on the social context in which the activity takes place. This study indicates that physical activity taken as leisure has greatest potential to enhance the quality of life of older adults.     

基于任务驱动模式的模拟导游课程教学

任务驱动教学模式能引导学生围绕任务进行探索学习,学生在完成任务的过程中掌握知识、培养能力、训练创新思维方面效果明显,符合模拟导游课程特点.探讨了任务驱动教学模式在模拟导游教学中的实践前提、具体措施及实践意义.     

“Organizing Creativity: Enabling Creative Output,Process, and Organizing Practices”

How individuals can exercise creativity in collectivities is unclear. We thus need to more thoroughly investigate the ‘black box’ of organizational creativity. Future research should consider creativity in a variety of organizations, rather than just those that are known for creative outputs or practices. In addition, we need to examine what I call everyday, relational, and proto‐institutional forms of organizational creativity. Intra‐ and inter‐organizational aspects can enhance or depress such organizational creativity: (1) within the organization’s boundary: internal interactions among organizational members and (2) outside the organization’s boundary: the surrounding organizational environment or field, which include competing or supporting organizations, other organizational actors, and the state. These two aspects pose dilemmas about how to organize that can constrain or enhance organizational creativity. In addressing these dilemmas, organizations must mediate between under‐ and over‐organizing extremes. Organizations can enable creativity by incorporating changing interests and conditions. Organizations can eschew convention, increase rank‐and‐file involvement with corresponding authority, tolerate ambiguity and deviance, encourage improvisation, and support members’ diverse experiences and perspectives.     

《尤利西斯》中狂欢化视野下的加脱冕现象研究

詹姆斯.乔伊斯的经典小说《尤利西斯》营造了典型的狂欢化氛围。加脱冕现象是狂欢中的典型特征,势必会在狂欢化的小说中得到很好的展现。在《尤利西斯》狂欢化的生活中,加脱冕现象不仅体现在个人身上,群体也一次次被加冕或脱冕。《尤利西斯》中加脱冕过程契合了巴赫金的狂欢化理论对于"第二生活"下的加脱冕现象的探讨,正是在这个过程中,各色人物获得了平等。     

Symmetrical design for symmetrical global sensitivity analysis of model output

Symmetrical global sensitivity analysis (SGSA) can help practitioners focusing on the symmetrical terms of inputs whose uncertainties have an impact on the model output, which allows reducing the complexity of the model. However, there remains the challenging problem of finding an efficient method to get symmetrical global sensitivity indices (SGSI) when the functional form of the symmetrical terms is unknown, including numerical and non-parametric situations. In this study, we propose a novel sampling plan, called symmetrical design, for SGSA. As a preliminary experiment for model feature extracting, such plan offers the virtue of run-size economy due to its closure respective to the given group. Using the design, we give estimation methods of SGSI as well as their asymptotic properties respectively for numerical model and non-parametrical model directly by the model outputs, and further propose a significance test for SGSI in non-parametric situation. A case study for a benchmark of GSA and a real data analysis show the effectiveness of the proposed design.     

基于互联网金融视角的网络信用风险传导机制研究

随着我国互联网金融的蓬勃兴起,网络信用风险亦逐渐受到重视.文章基于互联网金融的视角,对网络信用风险进行了定义与分类,并建立了互联网金融用户与互联网金融机构的委托—代理模型、博弈模型等对网络信用风险传导机制进行了分析;对中国人民银行下属公司建立网络金融征信系统、阿里巴巴支付宝的信用评级体系、阿里小贷与京东白条的网络信用风险进行了案例分析;针对互联网金融网络信用风险的防范机制提出了进一步完善中国人民银行网络征信系统、网络信用评级系统的升级与完善、相关法律法规的出台并践行、信用担保建设、网络技术保障等相关政策建议.