中泰外商直接投资实证研究——以泰国金融结构金融效率为分析对象

在"一带一路"倡议的推动下,泰国作为东盟第三大经济体,以其优越的地理优势和战略地位吸引了不少中国投资者进入泰国投资,而其金融结构与金融效率对中国直接投资有着重大影响.文章通过对金融结构、金融效率及中国在泰国直接投资的分析发现,尽管泰国通货膨胀率、泰国工业生产指数对中国在泰国直接投资没有显著影响,但泰国居民消费指数、泰国商业银行存贷比率、泰国生产价格指数、泰国失业率对中国在泰国直接投资会产生负向影响,而中国与泰国之间的进出口额对中国在泰国直接投资可以产生正向影响.因此,鼓励中国投资者向泰国投资,加大两国贸易合作以及开展两国文化交流,是促进中国和泰国经济进一步发展的有效措施,也是实现互助互利,合作共赢的"一带一路"经济合作目标的有效方法.     

Review essay: on Mamdani’s mode of thought

This essay tracks the formation of a global intellectual, perhaps the only one, whose work moves across Africa, America and Asia. Mahmood Mamdani has been a central figure engaging in explaining the most controversial issues such as refugees, popular versus state nationalism, mass killings (Rowanda), settler versus native, colonial citizenship and its governed subject, September 11, the Dafur movement (and its self-indulgence), Imperial Human Rights, decolonizing university and knowledge production (the US as the first and never decololinzed), settler colonialism, etc. Fearless and thoroughly grounded, Mamdani’s mode of thought is to historicize the conditions of the existence of the problematics in question with a theorization emerging out of the analyses. As a whole, Mamdani’s political practices as educator and public intellectual and the body of brilliant work have been inspirational. The essay is written as an introduction to Decolonizing the World: A Mahmood Mamdani Reader, a collection of his selected work, to open the channel of interaction between Asia and Africa.     

“阿拉伯之春”中青年社交媒体参与及其启示

2011年发生的"阿拉伯之春"在世界掀起的政治风暴至今余威犹存。关于这场运动的发起原因和影响的讨论至今没有形成共识,但是不可否认的是,阿拉伯青年在这场运动中高度依赖社交媒体的联结和动员功能,改变了传统社会运动的组织形态和行动逻辑,成为这场运动的发起人、推动者和参与主力。当前,中国社会正处于急剧转型时期,矛盾错综复杂,各种由青年人参与的群体性事件频仍发生,严重地考验着党和政府的治理能力。因而,认真汲取"阿拉伯之春"的教训,积极拓展青年诉求表达的合理渠道,引导其有序参与,对于防范和消弭社交媒体时代的政治风险,实现国家善政良治无疑具有重要意义。     

基于多源遥感的城市生态用地识别及生态风险评价

随着城市化进程的不断推进、建设用地不断扩张,城市生态空间正处于剧烈变化中。大量具有生态价值和服务功能的土地不断被侵占,以满足暂时的城市建设需求。但从长远来看,这些生态用地的"消失",将不可避免的影响区域生态平衡,给区域经济的健康发展埋下隐患。广州作为华南的中心城市,改革开放以来,大量外来人口涌入,土地利用变化频繁,生态环境的保护面临着巨大压力。因此,本文基于多源遥感数据,利用监督分类法与综合指数法相综合的复合提取方案对2016年广州生态用地进行空间识别,掌握广州市生态用地存量现状。同时,借助生态风险小区和生态风险等景观指数对广州进行了生态风险评估,结果显示,广州市生态风险呈现明显的多核圈层结构,由多核心的中心向外部逐渐降低。     

Fast robust feature screening for ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models

In this paper, we propose a new partial correlation, the so-called composite quantile partial correlation, to measure the relationship of two variables given other variables. We further use this correlation to screen variables in ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models. Our proposed method is fast and robust against outliers and can be efficiently employed in both single index variable and multiple index variable varying coefficient models. Numerical results indicate the preference of our proposed method.     

Unified Inference for Sparse and Dense Longitudinal Data in Time‐varying Coefficient Models

Time‐varying coefficient models are widely used in longitudinal data analysis. These models allow the effects of predictors on response to vary over time. In this article, we consider a mixed‐effects time‐varying coefficient model to account for the within subject correlation for longitudinal data. We show that when kernel smoothing is used to estimate the smooth functions in time‐varying coefficient models for sparse or dense longitudinal data, the asymptotic results of these two situations are essentially different. Therefore, a subjective choice between the sparse and dense cases might lead to erroneous conclusions for statistical inference. In order to solve this problem, we establish a unified self‐normalized central limit theorem, based on which a unified inference is proposed without deciding whether the data are sparse or dense. The effectiveness of the proposed unified inference is demonstrated through a simulation study and an analysis of Baltimore MACS data.     

Asymptotic expansions of density of normalized extremes from logarithmic general error distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of the log-normal distribution. In this paper, the asymptotic expansions of densities of normalized maximum from logarithmic general error distribution are derived under two different kinds of normalized constants. By applying the main results, the higher-order expansions of moments of maxima are established.     

Vocational Status,Hukou and Housing Migrants in the New Century: Evidence from a Multi-city Study of Housing Inequality

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.