关于层次分析法的数值试验

通过对层次分析法进行数值模拟,证实了次序性程度不仅对评价结果存在着显著的影响,而且也与一致性指标存在着密切的关系,同时也证实了标度精度不足是导致多种标度并存的原因,并建议采用适当的标度精度,这一观点与Saaty是一致的。实验结果还清楚地表明,单纯使用一致性指标判定一个矩阵好坏是不够的,应该辅助以其它指标。     

Composite quantile regression for varying-coefficient single-index models

ABSTRACT

The varying-coefficient single-index model (VCSIM) is a very general and flexible tool for exploring the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictors. Popular special cases include single-index models and varying-coefficient models. In order to estimate the index-coefficient and the non parametric varying-coefficients in the VCSIM, we propose a two-stage composite quantile regression estimation procedure, which integrates the local linear smoothing method and the information of quantile regressions at a number of conditional quantiles of the response variable. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators for the index-coefficient and varying-coefficients when the error is heterogeneous. When compared with the existing mean-regression-based estimation method, our simulation results indicate that our proposed method has comparable performance for normal error and is more robust for error with outliers or heavy tail. We illustrate our methodologies with a real example.     

Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Stochastic Frontier Model With Panel Data

ABSTRACT

We investigate the semiparametric smooth coefficient stochastic frontier model for panel data in which the distribution of the composite error term is assumed to be of known form but depends on some environmental variables. We propose multi-step estimators for the smooth coefficient functions as well as the parameters of the distribution of the composite error term and obtain their asymptotic properties. The Monte Carlo study demonstrates that the proposed estimators perform well in finite samples. We also consider an application and perform model specification test, construct confidence intervals, and estimate efficiency scores that depend on some environmental variables. The application uses a panel data on 451 large U.S. firms to explore the effects of computerization on productivity. Results show that two popular parametric models used in the stochastic frontier literature are likely to be misspecified. Compared with the parametric estimates, our semiparametric model shows a positive and larger overall effect of computer capital on the productivity. The efficiency levels, however, were not much different among the models. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

中国宏观经济对沪市的波动溢出效应研究——基于VAR（k）-MGARCH—BEKK（1，1）模型

本文基于VAR（k）-MGARCH—BEKK（1,1）模型和Wald检验探讨了2003—2008年期间的全国银行间同业拆借利率、汇率、企业商品价格指数、工业增加值增长率、M0、宏观景气指数和消费价格指数对沪市的波动溢出效应,结果表明,除了企业商品价格指数和M0之外,其它宏观经济指标的增长率（速度）均对沪市收益率产生显著的、直接的波动溢出效应。     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.     

“边缘化”大学生个体成因、预防与矫治的研究

＂边缘化＂学生是指行为超出正常规范、学业严重不佳的学生个体。认为中学及大学阶段的管理、社会因素、理想与现实的错位以及个人性格心理特点等是形成＂边缘化＂学生个体的主要原因;管理者建立＂防边缘化＂预警机制、抓住管理的关键时期及努力营造良好学风是有效预防＂边缘化＂的措施;选择适当的角度和有效的工作方法可以对＂边缘化＂学生完成成功矫治。     

“三型政党”建设的功用与路径优化简

党的十八届三中全会是全面深化改革的总动员,并针对深化改革作出全面战略部署。在我国,党的领导体制改革是各项改革的核心,事关全面深化改革的成败。建设“三型政党”已成为党的改革与建设的总体目标。因此,“三型政党”建设是全面深化改革的核心内容和驱动力量。“三型政党”本身是党的改革和建设的目标体系,理清其内在逻辑关系,明确建设路径,对于加强和改善党的领导,全面深化改革进程具有重大战略意义。     

个体化与公共性夹缝中的差序利他倾向

本文从国—民关系演变和社会结构变迁的视角研究利他意愿的差序格局,厘清在公共性转向与个体化崛起的时期,陌生人社会道德范式的边界和制约因素,拓展对选择性利他行为的认知.通过2013年在南京市随机抽取809名市民进行电话调查,剖析公民利他行为倾向的心理形态,并研究“差序格局”的文化心理如何调适自我主义和利他主义的张力.研究发现,利他成本削减正向意愿,助人倾向的审时度势消解了道德认知的整体图景,呈现多层级的分殊特征,利他倾向呈现非均质分布和梯度变化的差序影态,可视为转型社会凸显个体化趋势下的自我保护策略,短期内纾解了自利与利他之间的张力.“差序利他倾向”将善行的边界在道德成本与道德义务之间进行均衡调节,实现个体化与公共性的有效衔接从而延伸善行的边界,在陌生人社会中架构互惠利他的道德秩序.     

仡佬族独特审美意识的历史与自然成因

仡佬族在与恶劣的自然环境抗争和与复杂的社会环境适应的过程中形成了以崇尚生命和追求和谐为特征的审美意识。寻析其特定的审美意识成因和内蕴,可以深刻了解其质朴顽强、包容坚忍的民族精神,及其以弱适强、守护自我的民族性。这可以为在全球化背景中如何应对强势文化冲击提供一点启示。     

政府公信力问题探究

处于社会转型时期的中国,现实中种种信任危机的爆发使政府施政面临空前压力与难题。面对挑战,政府如何通过完善自身有效解决社会问题,重塑公信形象,已成为亟待解决的理论与现实问题。本文从政府公信力的基本内涵、目前中国政府公信力弱化的原因及提升政府公信力的途径等方面对政府公信力问题进行了探究。