双线自闭区段客货列车速度比对扣除系数的影响分析

目前扣除系数的计算方法主要为分析法与模拟法，扣除系数的常见影响因素有客货列车速度比、区段均衡度、追踪间隔时分等。通过模拟法进行不同客货列车速度比下的运行图铺画，得出客货列车速度比对扣除系数的影响规律分析。实验表明：随着客货速度比的增加，扣除系数将逐渐变大，据此建议在相关双线客货混跑区段，选取合适的客货速度比，以减小对运行图通过能力的影响     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

对旅行社往来款项管理的问题及对策的探讨

往来款项是公司与客户之间的业务往来所形成的款项。在市场信用危机存在的情况下这种方式却导致企业相互间账款的拖欠现象越来越严重，造成企业往来款项负担增加，资金周转困难，影响到公司的正常经营。为此我们应积极寻求新的理念，及时解决往来款项中存在的问题，促进企业积极正常发展。所以，本文分析了中小型旅行社往来款项的问题，针对存在的问题提出相应的改进对策。     

科学发展视野中马克思主义风险思想的时代阐释

由大地震引发的日本核危机突显了当代风险问题的重要性。所谓"风险",是指因社会发展而潜伏下来的遍布经济、政治、文化和社会公共领域的各种可能性危险。马克思主义的经典文本为风险防范实践提供了丰富的思想资源,认为资本在形态转化过程中会遭受经济风险。防范政治风险的关键在于坚持党的领导,全球化趋势是当代文化风险的重要根源,通过风险分担可以防范社会公共风险。以马克思主义为指导建构风险防范机制,必须以防范经济风险作为整个风险防范实践的基础,并通过政治、文化和社会公共领域的风险防范,保障经济、乃至整个社会的安全与稳定。     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

从仪式到非遗:石首跳三鼓文化传承研究

石首跳三鼓是流行于石首的一种具有明显地域特色的丧葬仪式,其历史悠久,表演形式多样,文化功能显著,早已深深融入百姓的生活.近年来,石首跳三鼓由地方性祭祀仪式发展为国家级非物资文化遗产,其文化传承受到越来越多人的关注.石首跳三鼓正面临着文化空间压缩、殡葬改革冲击、市场化的局限等文化传承困境,从拓展文化空间、强化科技支撑、规范市场行为等方面,对石首跳三鼓文化可持续性传承提出了一些思路.     

Stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard models

The accelerated hazard model in survival analysis assumes that the covariate effect acts the time scale of the baseline hazard rate. In this paper, we study the stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard model since the covariate is considered basically unobservable. We build dependence structure between the population variable and the covariate, and also present some preservation properties. Using some well-known stochastic orders, we compare two mixed accelerated hazards models arising out of different choices of distributions for unobservable covariates or different baseline hazard rate functions.     

感性消费时代的广告受众心理分析

通过对广告受众心理进行分析,总结出新形势下广告受众心理的主要特点。具体受众心理分析是：一、感性心理：情趣情调;自我比拟;理想向往;流行时尚;交流互动;品牌偏好。二、理性——感性心理：实用价值观念变异;自我价值中的理性与感性;体现个性。     

SOFT SKILLS,HARD SKILLS,AND THE BLACK/WHITE WAGE GAP

This study examines the relative importance of soft skills versus hard skills across occupations and its impact on the observed wage gap between Blacks and Whites in the United States. It posits that the Black/White pay gap may vary across occupations that require the use of different types of skills. We classify occupations into hard‐skill intensive versus soft‐skill intensive jobs using the skill content measures of different occupations from the Occupational Information Network (O*Net). We then use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and Current Population Survey (CPS) to investigate the impact of job skill type on the wage gap. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we show that this wage gap in white‐collar jobs is smaller for hard‐skills jobs than it is for soft‐skills jobs. Moreover, we demonstrate that, in response to variations in the wage gap across different occupations, Blacks are more likely to self‐select themselves into hard‐skills jobs, ceteris paribus. This shows not only that discrimination against Blacks varies across occupations, but also that such discrimination induces the self‐selection of Blacks into certain occupations. Moreover, this finding highlights the role played by co‐worker/customer discrimination in explaining the racial wage gap in the U.S. labor market. (JEL J15, J31)