Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

政治合法性视域中的中国改革

本文试图以政治合法性为视角对中国的改革进行政治分析.首先对合法性理论进行了梳理,并运用合法性理论把中国自改革开放以来的历史演进划分为:合法性的获得、合法性的危机、合法性的重塑三个阶段.文章最后通过对合法性理论的分析指出推进政治体制改革并在政治体制改革中把"依法治国"和"以德治国"的治国理念相结合才是中国重塑合法性的必由之路.     

A misspecification test for the higher order co-moments of the factor model

The traditional estimation of higher order co-moments of non-normal random variables by the sample analog of the expectation faces a curse of dimensionality, as the number of parameters increases steeply when the dimension increases. Imposing a factor structure on the process solves this problem; however, it leads to the challenging task of selecting an appropriate factor model. This paper contributes by proposing a test that exploits the following feature: when the factor model is correctly specified, the higher order co-moments of the unexplained return variation are sparse. It recommends a general to specific approach for selecting the factor model by choosing the most parsimonious specification for which the sparsity assumption is satisfied. This approach uses a Wald or Gumbel test statistic for testing the joint statistical significance of the co-moments that are zero when the factor model is correctly specified. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived. An extensive simulation study confirms the good finite sample properties of the approach. This paper illustrates the practical usefulness of factor selection on daily returns of random subsets of S&P 100 constituents.     

Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

机械基础创新实验教学体系研究

机械基础系列课程在培养机械类专业学生工程实践能力和创新设计能力等方面起着十分重要的作用.文章讨论了机械基础创新实验教学体系的基本内容:创新实验教学思想观念、创新实验教学目标、创新实验教学内容、创新实验教学方法与手段、创新实验教学评价和创新实验教学管理等六个方面.旨在创建以创新实验教学思想为指导,以机械分析与综合为基础,以机构运动方案设计为主线,以提高机械类学生的分析能力、综合能力和创新设计能力为目标的实验教学新体系.     

我国构建数字经济税收法律制度的现时难题和优化路径

传统税收法律制度在对数字经济企业实施税收征管时存在征管依据缺失、征管技术落后等不足,进而诱发税基侵蚀和利润转移问题,导致无法对数字经济进行充分有效的征管。各国对数字经济的利益诉求不同,使得在国际层面具备广泛共识的数字税方案难以达成。从国内层面来看,我国对于数字经济的税收征管仍旧依靠传统税收模式进行,并未将数字税作为独立税种在法律上予以确认。这种税收模式在数字经济持续发展的当下已经无法满足数字经济税收征管的现实需要。对于当前中国构建数字经济税收法律制度的路径,可以通过升级数字税收监管技术、发挥数字经济平台的监管作用和加强国际税收合作等手段进行优化,并积极参与和推进具有广泛共识的国际数字税收法律规则的制订。     

农村生产性公共产品供应机制的思考--对鱼米之乡常德市的个案研究

“鱼米之乡”常德市的实证表明,农村生产性公共产品供应短缺状况严重。实际需求与有限财力、集权财政与地方主义、政府热心与民间冷漠的矛盾是其主因。改善农村生产性公共产品供应,帮助农村、农民彻底摆脱贫困的出路在于:加大国家投入力度,开征农村建设维护费;对生产性公共产品实行分类分级管理和市场化营运;增强农民的社会公共意识和土地主人意识。     

人类学笔记,还是国家与文明起源笔记--初答叶志坚先生

本文是为促进学术交流,就叶志坚先生的<是"国家与文明起源笔记",还是"人类学笔记"--与王东、刘军先生商榷>(<东南学术>2005年第3期)一文而作的.叶文对我们之前在<哲学研究>2004年第2期的<"人类学笔记",还是"国家与文明起源笔记"--为马克思晚年笔记正名>一文中关于为马克思晚年笔记正名,并将"人类学笔记"流行称谓更名为"国家与文明起源笔记"的观点及理论根据,提出了他的不同意见.对此,我们将在本文中,就叶文提出的主要问题、主要观点,其中包括叶先生本人的一些在我们看来不够妥当的观点和看法,结合我们的观点,作相应的分析和说明,与叶先生及学界同仁进行一次深入的学术探讨.我们主张,为恢复马克思笔记本来面目和马克思晚年思想原貌,应本着实事求是的科学态度,根本超越长期以来流行的"人类学笔记"错误称谓,确立对笔记的科学解释--用"国家和文明起源的历史哲学研究"来解释马克思晚年笔记,并将笔记更名为"国家和文明起源笔记".     

儿童如何参与研究：基于照片引谈法的解读

照片引谈法是一种基于艺术的研究方法。用于儿童研究能为儿童赋权增能,支持儿童借助视觉表达自身的真实生活样态,进行自我的知识建构,也能获取更多、有更好信度与效度的研究数据。儿童研究中的照片引谈法程序包括确定研究主题和目标、邀请儿童参与、选择摄影工具、明确拍摄要求、整理照片、正式引谈、分析资料形成结论七个步骤,对儿童与成人的权力反思贯穿于全过程。未来使儿童成为积极的研究参与者需要关注方法论层面的思考,增强对研究伦理的观照,融合多学科领域的理念和方法,增强包容性。