全球一体化催生的一株诗坛奇葩——中韩生态环境诗兴起脉络初探

西方发达国家于20世纪60年代产生的生态文学,在东西方冷战结束后,影响到了中韩两国的诗歌创作,20世纪80年代后,中韩两国诗坛上先后兴起生态环境诗。虽然中韩在社会基础、诗歌自身发展等因素上存在着各自差异,但在全球一体化的语境下,生态环境诗则形象地表达了两国诗人对工业文明的共同思考。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

从启蒙者到依附者——“17年诗歌”诗人角色的易换

回望17年诗坛,我们在大多数诗歌千篇一律的声音里发现,那个自"五四"以来就置身于"启蒙"潮头的身影,在三十年后竟然成为政策的传声筒、政治的依附者。社会状况、读者对象、诗歌审美标准、诗人心态的改变,及其病态的"先锋情结",是这代诗人们最终选择"依附者"角色的至关重要的因素。     

社会服务供给集约化发展思路探索

针对我国目前社会服务供给主体发展现状和社会服务供给特性,结合市场集中度和集约化管理理论,分析我国社会服务供给主体存在的主要问题,论述社会服务供给市场集中度与社会服务供给集约化的关系,提出通过降低准入门槛、鼓励主体竞合、强化规模运营、培育大型主体、理顺主体关系、完善竞争机制及优化市场结构等策略与措施,来推动社会服务供给集约化管理。     

公安户政管理创新的方法和途径探究

当前党中央提出社会管理创新理论,公安户政管理机关也要以此为契机,解放思想,转变观念,带好队伍,本文从公安户政管理的创新方法和途径上进行了一些思考,试图为公安户政管理创新提供拙见。     

中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

低压及欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响

以多相瞬变流理论为基础,建立了井筒内气液两相流动模型,并对低压欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响关系和规律进行计算和分析。计算分析结果表明,注气量对井内压力的影响除与注气量本身大小有关外,还与井深、井眼与钻柱结构尺寸、井内液相流量和性质等因素密切相关。单纯增大注气量并不一定就必然会导致井内压力的降低,这取决于所给条件下构成井筒内气液两相流体的静液压力和流阻间的平衡关系。介绍的模型及方法对确定低压欠平衡钻井过程中各相关参数、地面压缩机组的配置、以及设计方案等有一定指导意义。     

基于网络文化视域的大学生政治社会化问题探究

随着科学技术的迅速发展,与网络密切相关的网络文化越来越受到人们的关注。网络文化是人类文明的划时代成果,它所包含的丰富的经济、政治、科技、教育、艺术等诸多信息对当代大学生政治社会化过程也会产生重要的影响。网络文化不仅对大学生政治社会化起着积极的促进作用,同时也对大学生政治社会化造成一定的负面影响。基于对网络文化的认识,必须坚持"依法治网"与"以德治网"相结合的原则,从而保证大学生顺利实现政治社会化。     

潘之恒《亘史》侠客形象研究

侠客是中国封建社会中的一部分特殊人群,是具有传奇色彩的英雄人物。明代徽州由于商品经济的发展,侠客文学体裁作品出现了创作高潮.这其中,安徽小说家潘之恒创作的笔记体小说《亘史》中塑造了大量性格鲜明、颇具特色的侠客形象。而那些女性侠客,更是以非凡的身手,细腻的情感,在传记文学史上为女性书写了浓墨重彩的一笔。     

Partial linear single-index models with additive distortion measurement errors

We study partial linear single-index models (PLSiMs) when the response and the covariates in the parametric part are measured with additive distortion measurement errors. These distortions are modeled by unknown functions of a commonly observable confounding variable. We use the semiparametric profile least-squares method to estimate the parameters in the PLSiMs based on the residuals obtained from the distorted variables and confounding variable. We also employ the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) to select the relevant variables in the PLSiMs. We show that the resulting SCAD estimators are consistent and possess the oracle property. For the non parametric link function, we construct the simultaneous confidence bands and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum absolute deviation between the estimated link function and the true link function. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and a real dataset is analyzed for illustration.