农业保险的保障水平与财政补贴政策优化：一个文献综述 *

近年来，我国农业保险快速发展，在保费收入、保障范围和参保农户数量等指标上都取得了举世瞩目的成绩。与此同时，保障水平不高、农业保险“不解渴、不顶用”也一直是各方反映的焦点之一。本文结合了福利经济学和保险经济学中的相关理论，遵循“提高农业保险保障水平必须优化其财政补贴政策”的逻辑主线，对实施财政补贴政策是提升农业保险保障水平的前提条件、有效途径、有力举措和重要渠道进行了梳理和评析。最后，针对现有研究的不足，结合当前的时代背景，对该领域日后的研究重点进行了预测，并进一步探讨了其优化路径。     

新时代高校国防教育隐性课程开发探究

新时代高校国防教育，在利用好军事理论教学这一显性课程基础上，还需要开发隐性课程。从国防教育隐性课程内涵谈起，阐述了开发国防教育隐性课程的必要性和可行性，进而对高校国防教育隐性课程开发的策略提出了几点看法，认为应该从开发以校园环境建设为基础的隐性课程、开发以制度建设为载体的隐性课程、开发以培育大学精神为核心的隐性课程三方面进行。     

Chinese youth performing identities and navigating belonging online

This paper examines the experiences of belonging of young Chinese internet users through an analysis of their online identity practices. Drawing on a qualitative research project about online citizenship practices of 31 young Chinese citizens from mainland China, I explore their experiences of belonging on two online platforms (Weibo and WeChat) and the identities formed and sustained through these experiences. The results show that young people experience different senses of belonging in different social media spaces. Their strategies in navigating these experiences are informed by (a) their perceptions of online spaces as private or public, and (b) using online identity performance as a supplement to or escape from identities in physical life. I argue that young Chinese internet users experience different senses of belonging by flexibly appropriating the affordances of social media platforms for communication and networking; these senses of belonging play a key role in forming and sustaining their identities, and are crucial for their wellbeing.     

重构环境税法建制原则——对污染者付费原则的反思与突破

缘起于环境保护法的环境税法试图以税收这一经济工具调控污染者的行为,以促进环境保护目的的达成。环境保护税立法平移了排污费制度,既未能实现对污染者付费原则误读的矫正,在理念上又忽视环境税法横亘环境法与税法这一复合属性,使得环境税的激励诱导效果难以发挥,并且有沦为环境法附庸的危险。唯有对污染者付费原则进行正确的理解,并引入税法上的公平原则和纳税人基本权保障原则,环境税法的立法目的方能达成。     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

超长钢板桩围堰合理内支撑施工方案

钢板桩围堰合理的内支撑施工方案对施工安全、工期长短、成本大小均有一定的影响。以阜阳至六安铁路颍河特大桥深水基础超长钢板桩围堰施工实践为例，通过建立钢板桩、内支撑和土层相互作用的三维整体有限元模型，根据封底混凝土施工时机的不同，选择4种施工方案，对超长钢板桩围堰内支撑施工方案进行了探讨。结果表明：封底混凝土施工越早，对围堰结构的整体安全越有利；实际采用的施工方案要根据桥址处工程地质条件，结合实际工程情况，经方案比选和分析论证以后确定。     

为何少数族群的参与较少?——移民、教育以及选举程序对亚裔美国选民登记及投票的影响

美国黑人和白人在选举投票上的差异性一直备受学界关注,但是亚裔美国人参与投票率低这个问题却没有得到应有的重视。利用"当前人口调查中关于投票和登记的附录",笔者分析评估了对于亚裔美国人及其他少数族群投票率低的四种解释,即社会经济(socio-economic)解释、文化适应(acculturation)解释、差异性回报(differential return)解释、制度障碍(institutional barriers)解释。笔者运用一种统计学模型,能够同时对登记和投票进行评估,得出了四点结论:第一,社会经济解释在解释白人与亚裔美国人的差异性时,没有像解释白人与其他少数族群的差异时那么有说服力;第二,作为文化适应的两项重要指标——移民身份和居住时间——直接影响到亚裔美国人和拉美裔美国人的选民登记,但对其投票的影响甚微;第三,教育通常对参与投票有积极的影响,但是教育对亚裔美国人参与率的影响相对低于其他族群,尤其是白人;第四,制度障碍,尤其是对于选民登记的各种要求,不同比例地屏蔽了很多亚裔美国人,其次是拉美裔美国人,去参与最后的投票。本文的反事实分析(counterfactual analyses)表明,如果没有选民登记这项要求,亚裔美国人和白人在选民投票上将没有区别。     

基于VAR模型金融支持科技成果转化影响的实证研究——以安徽省为例

科技的不断发展应用不仅得益于研究者的不断探索,也受益于国家金融的大力支持,二者之间相互作用,相互影响.一方面,科技成果转化的应用对金融行业在不断深化业务改革与体系改革有着极大的促进作用,另一方面庞大科技研发及应用需要金融给予有力资金支持.与此同时金融支持的宽度和广度的不同对科技成果转化也有着不一样的驱动影响,随着时间的变化,政府科技投入越高时,对科技成果转化的波动将越来越明显,而信贷支持和证券化率越低时,对科技成果转化波动的滞后性效应将趋向较为稳定的程度影响.