群体性事件中的信息传播流程、节点与心理接受机制

群体性事件是转型期中国较为严重的社会问题,也是公民政治参与、权利救济的一种手段.在群体性事件的发生、发展、激化与平息的整个过程中,群体信息传播起着非常重要的作用,其传播流程大致经历"议论纷纷"的群体意识唤醒、"流言四起"的群体意识形成和"谣言惑众"的暴力行为发生三个阶段;在此期间,诸如暴力、权贵、女性等元素成为最能刺激群体、引起群众共鸣并激励民众参与的"信息节点",严重影响着事件的发展进程.群体心理的接受机制则表现为以正义感、成就感、自我替代为特征的主动参与动机,以成见与刻板印象为特征的群体意识心像和以焦虑、愤懑、激昂递进的情绪激化过程.     

由物返道:《吕氏春秋》本体论诠释新探

以往对<吕氏春秋>的本体论诠释大多遵循以"道"释"物"的解析传统和演绎模式,仅对形上之道与形下之器"化而裁之",而对因何悟得形上之道则未予关注.形上之道并非来自天启,而是<吕氏春秋>编撰者们从现实境遇出发,通过"识物"、"治性"和"治国"三个环节逐步向上追寻,最终悟得其形上之"道"的.它不但可成为<吕氏春秋>本体论诠释的另一种进路,对其他道家著作之道论亦可作如是观.     

市场决策与非市场决策对公共选择的影响

市场经济是当代世界各国采取的主要经济运行模式,但在市场经济运行过程中对于公共产品的表现总会出现一些困惑和难题.因此,以公共产品的市场选择规则失灵为开端,在概括公共选择理论研究的基础上,从市场决策与非市场决策两个方面对公共选择的相关问题进行对比剖析,从而为政府管理提供参考依据.     

正视基本国情 重视老年体育

21世纪,人口老龄化将成为中国的基本国情,这不仅会影响到目前还健在的每一位中国人,而且会影响到目前尚未出生的若干代中国人。针对老年体育存在的诸多难题,应加强老年体育工作的研究,狠抓老年体育,以体现体育在人的生命过程中的作用和价值,使老年人健康长寿,提高生活质量。     

解读"马克思主义中国化"的理论空间与实质

"马克思主义中国化"问题在当代中国被再次提出来,有其强烈的现实指向性与理论针对性,其直接的原因是为了回击五种"反"马克思主义思潮.明确马克思主义中国化的价值主旨,构成了马克思主义中国化的理论空间.从"对话"、"问题"和"方法论"三个维度审视,"马克思主义中国化"本质上是立足于中国历史与现实生活的马克思主义的"出场"过程与"在场"状态.马克思主义中固化的实质是解决"民生问题",这一问题是我们检验一切马克思主义理论构造的最终原则与价值尺度.     

我国农业剩余劳动力出路的若干思考

我国农村城镇化进程缓慢 ,滞后了第三产业的发展 ,在很大程度上也阻碍了农业劳动力向非农产业的转移 ,而且今后一段时间我国农村劳动力的绝对量会大幅度增加 ,这就使得农村的就业问题显得尤为突出。大力推行农业产业化 ,实现农产品的多层次增值和劳动力的多渠道就业 ,同时大力开发小城镇 ,扩大第三产业规模 ,是促使农业剩余劳动力实现产业和空间转移的途径     

An Adaptive Functional Autoregressive Forecast Model to Predict Electricity Price Curves

We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives.     

经济景气指标与实际GDP增长率的混频预测

文章通过构建月度景气指标与季度实际GDP增长率之间的混频动态向量自回归模型,并采用期望最大值算法和卡尔曼滤波来实现混频数据和缺失数据的估计和迭代预测.大量月度景气指标的MFVAR模型的伪实时数据的多步滚动迭代样本外预测结果表明:虽然不同类别的月度景气变量在不同预测期的预测结果存在一定的差异,但实时预报、短期预测,以及组合预测结果均表明混频动态向量自回归预测模型对我国季度实际GDP增长率的实时预报和短期预测具有精确性、有效性与适用性.     

Sample size estimation for comparing rates of change in K-group repeated count outcomes

Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004 Jung, S., Ahn, C. (2004). K-sample test and sample size calculation for comparing slopes in data with repeated measurements. Biometrical J. 46(5):554–564.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Zhang and Ahn (2013 Zhang, S., Ahn, C. (2013). Sample size calculation for comparing time-averaged responses in k-group repeated measurement studies. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 58:283–291.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example.