基于GPRS的分布式人防及灾害警报遥控系统的实现

介绍一种基于GPRS移动网的人民防空及灾害警报遥控系统的实现方案。该系统采用中国移动通信公司最新推出的GPRS无线数据通信技术实现人民防空及灾害警报器的远程播放和监控,具有控制响应快、建设和维护成本低、便于推广等优点。     

对"战争文学"的反思

杨义从东亚学的角度阐发了战争的历史记忆,认为我们今天所要讨论的历史记忆,就是从文学与战争的关系中,正视和剖析那场沉重的东亚地图的撕裂和反撕裂的战争,及其至今尚未得到平复的严重的后遗症,从中寻求人类的正义感、责任感民族以及民族和国家之间正常、健康、和好、互惠发展的历史可能性。严家炎探讨了抗战时期启蒙与救亡的关系,认为在抗日战争这个"救亡"的高潮时期,文学中的"启蒙"仍与"抗日"结伴而行,并没有停止。"启蒙"任务后来被取消,真正的原因在革命队伍内部,是封建思想侵袭革命队伍的结果。王富仁一方面分析了战争记忆与战争文学之间的区别,认为战争文学应当是作家从战争记忆中做出的一种人性的反思;另一方面分析了中外战争文学的差异,认为理想的战争文学应当充盈可贵的人类意识和人性意识。黄修己对战争文学做了深刻的反思,认为我们在政治层面上歌颂正义战争的同时,还应该从人性层面上批判战争。战争文学最主要的不是战争中的宣传鼓动作用,而是通过影响人的感情来提升人性。吴福辉提出了"大抗战文学"的概念,并深入分析了五种类型的"战争体验"小说,认为这些作品将战时特殊的体验延伸到对民族性的自省,凝结为战争文学的最好的结晶。刘增杰深入论述了抗战反思文学思潮,认为在这种反思文学中,一类偏重于对现实政治层面弊端进行揭露与鞭挞;另一类则站在人类的立场,从精神层面对民族惰性进行剖析。指出:反思文学是抗战文学结出的最成熟的果实,抗战反思文学中保留着永具活力民族记忆。秦弓将眼光投向了已经淡出人们历史记忆的反映抗日战争正面战场的文学创作和文学研究,认为表现正面战场的文学创作取得了丰硕的成果,留下了关于抗战的珍贵的民族记忆。应该珍惜这笔宝贵的文学财富,全面启动抗战文学与正面战场的研究,借以填补现代文学史不应有的空白。     

"满足学生成长发展需求和期待"的 内涵要义和外延深意 ——基于高校思想政治理论课和思想政治教育工作的视角

习近平总书记在学校思想政治理论课教师座谈会上对办好思想政治理论课作出了重要指示,并在全国高校思想政治工作会议提出思想政治教育要“满足学生成长发展需求和期待”。本文围绕什么是“满足学生成长发展需求和期待”、怎样“满足学生成长发展需求和期待”等问题展开深入的分析探讨,力求从高校思想政治理论课的视角深刻领会其内涵要义,并在高校思想政治教育工作中准确理解其外延深意,真正把握其实质和新形势下对高校思想政治教育工作的实践要求。     

冼星海与抗战时期“孩子剧团”的歌咏活动

抗战期间少年儿童抗日团体风起云涌,其中被誉为“中国儿童界三大明星”之一的“孩子剧团”宣传活动卓越,受到周恩来、郭沫若、茅盾等革命领导人和文化名人的关心,这其中就有著名音乐家冼星海。“孩子剧团”是抗战期间冼星海帮助最多的少年儿童抗日团体,他与“孩子剧团”的交集主要发生在武汉的国民政府军事委员会政治部第三厅,他曾多次教授“孩子剧团”唱《游击军》《在太行山上》等歌曲,指导“孩子剧团”参加演出和开展歌咏活动,还为“孩子剧团”团员走上艺术道路提供帮助等。冼星海的音乐教育思想也影响助推了“孩子剧团”后期的发展壮大。     

加强“兵团”城市建设 完善新疆城市体系

新疆地处中国西隅,随着近代以来中国的海上大门被打开,外向型发展使得新疆地区更加远离政治、经济、文化发展的中心,城市化进程长期落后于沿海及内地的城市。改革开放以后,新疆城市获得了长足的发展,城市化水平不断提高,但是与经济发达的沿海、内地相比,仍然有明显的差距。当前,生产建设兵团在推动新疆城市化进程,完善新疆城市体系,改变新疆城市空间分布不平衡的现状,推动新疆跨越式发展,稳定我国西北边防、新疆社会稳定等方面将发挥重要作用。为此,发展"兵团"城市,能够有效优化"兵团"产业结构,促进"兵团"经济进步,带动"兵团"的整体发展。     

Stochastic EM algorithm of a finite mixture model from hurdle Poisson distribution with missing responses

ABSTRACT

In this article, a finite mixture model of hurdle Poisson distribution with missing outcomes is proposed, and a stochastic EM algorithm is developed for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and mixing proportions. Specifically, missing data is assumed to be missing not at random (MNAR)/non ignorable missing (NINR) and the corresponding missingness mechanism is modeled through probit regression. To improve the algorithm efficiency, a stochastic step is incorporated into the E-step based on data augmentation, whereas the M-step is solved by the method of conditional maximization. A variation on Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is also proposed to compare models with different number of components with missing values. The considered model is a general model framework and it captures the important characteristics of count data analysis such as zero inflation/deflation, heterogeneity as well as missingness, providing us with more insight into the data feature and allowing for dispersion to be investigated more fully and correctly. Since the stochastic step only involves simulating samples from some standard distributions, the computational burden is alleviated. Once missing responses and latent variables are imputed to replace the conditional expectation, our approach works as part of a multiple imputation procedure. A simulation study and a real example illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of our methodology.     

A probabilistic model for predicting total basal area growth of closed uneven-aged stand

In this note, a probabilistic method for predicting the future total net basal area of closed uneven-aged stand based on “Stand Tally” is proposed and an example is given.     

Group Variable Selection with Oracle Property by Weight-Fused Adaptive Elastic Net Model for Strongly Correlated Data

This paper is the generalization of weight-fused elastic net (Fu and Xu, 2012 Fu, G., Xu, Q. (2012). Grouping variable selection by weight fused elastic net for multi-collinear data. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation 41(2):205–221.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which performs group variable selection by combining weight-fused LASSO(wfLasso) and elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005 Zou, H., Hastie, T. (2005). Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 67(2):301–320.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) penalties. In this study, the elastic net penalty is replaced by adaptive elastic net penalty (AdaEnet) (Zou and Zhang, 2009 Zou, H., Zhang, H. (2009). On the adaptive elastic-net with a diverging number of parameters. Annals of Statistics 37(4):1733–1751.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and a new group variable selection algorithm with oracle property (Fan and Li, 2001 Fan, J., Li, R. (2001). Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties. Journal of the American Statistical Association 96(456):1348–1360.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Zou, 2006 Zou, H. (2006). The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties. Journal of the American Statistical Association 101(476):1418–1429.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is obtained.