This paper studies the construction of a Bayesian confidence interval for the risk ratio (RR) in a 2 × 2 table with structural zero. Under a Dirichlet prior distribution, the exact posterior distribution of the RR is derived, and tail-based interval is suggested for constructing Bayesian confidence interval. The frequentist performance of this confidence interval is investigated by simulation and compared with the score-based interval in terms of the mean coverage probability and mean expected width of the interval. An advantage of the Bayesian confidence interval is that it is well defined for all data structure and has shorter expected width. Our simulation shows that the Bayesian tail-based interval under Jeffreys’ prior performs as well as or better than the score-based confidence interval. 相似文献
Urbanization is increasingly compromising lakes in the rapidly developing countries of tropical Southeast Asia. Greater understanding of the ecology of tropical lakes is essential in order to determine the best ways to protect and manage them. A comparison was made of the species richness, abundance and diets of Chironomidae in two forest lakes (both created by damming rivers - one in an urban forest reserve, one adjacent to an urban area) and two urban park lakes (ex- tin mine lakes) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 19 species of chironomids were recorded (10 collector-gatherers, one collector-filterer, one shredder, 3 predators and 4 predators/grazers). The most abundant species were Polypedilum leei, Tanytarsus formosanus, Zavreliella marmorata and Procladius sp.. Conductivity was highest in the urban park lakes due to pollution. Temperature was also highest in the urban park lakes due to lower riparian canopy cover and lower macrophyte abundance. Larval abundance (mostly collector-gathering Chironominae) was significantly higher in the forest lakes compared to the urban park lakes, which could be related to cleaner water and higher vegetation cover which provided more food resources (leaf litter and periphyton) and more microhabitats. Predatory tanypods were most abundant in forest lakes which also had the highest numbers of their prey (Chironominae). Four predatory species of Tanypodinae supplemented their diet with blue-green algae in two of the urban lakes. Only one collector-filterer (Corynoneura sp.) was recorded (only in the forest lakes).
