Risk reduction or risk compensation? The case of mandatory safety-belt use laws

The technological approach to risk regulation seeks to lessen the incidence of mortality and morbidity by modifying environmental conditions. Insofar as risk-taking behavior is purposive, social scientists have predicted that technological progress may be negated by various forms of risk compensation. The validity of this hypothesis is tested in the transportation sector with data from the U.S. on the effects of new mandatory safety-belt-use laws. A fixed-effects model of traffic fatality counts is estimated using pooled data from 50 states during the 1975–1987 period. Results suggest that such laws have reduced mortality among car occupants to a degree that is compatible with the predictions of technologists. However, there is weak evidence of increased mortality among some nonoccupants, a pattern predicted by risk-compensation theorists. The lifesaving effects of belt-use laws are largest in states that permit primary police enforcement and appear to be somewhat larger for front-seat occupants age 21 and under. Although offsetting behavior appears to be small relative to lifesaving effects, it may take several more years for any compensatory behavior to achieve a new equilibrium.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Centers for Disease Control to the New England Injury Prevention Research Center.     

PREDICTORS OF STRESS AMONG AUSTRALIAN FARMERS

Australian farms continue to suffer economic pressure which directly and indirectly produces stress among farm family members. This study uses qualitative and quantitative data to isolate factors which predict stress, Financial condition, perception of what is at stake, the combination of on-farm and off-farm obligations and the general frustrations of farm life are found to predict stress among both men and women. Gender relations and attachment to farm life emerge as stronger predictors for women, while youth is a stronger predictor for men. The study concludes that attempts to develop and preserve the family farm may be creating stressful situations which threaten the family relations upon which the farming system is based.     

WORK INCENTIVES AND SOLE MOTHERS: COMPARING AUSTRALIAN POLICY

This article adopts a comparative perspective on policies to increase labour force participation of single mothers. Australia's orientation is briefly explored within the context of other major English-speaking countries (the United States, Britain and Canada), and the common emphasis in the policies on providing employment services and reducing poverty traps for Australia and Canada's largest province (Ontario) is then examined. While the potential of these approaches to increase labour force participation is found to be limited, the comparison suggests that Canada would do well to follow some of the recent anti-poverty measures Australia has adopted. Australia, however, appears to offer a less favourable employment climate for women. The article concludes that both jurisdictions will need to pursue a broader set of policies to respond to the root causes of poverty among women heading families on their own.     

Reproductive and Developmental Risks from Ethylene Oxide: A Probabilistic Characterization of Possible Regulatory Thresholds

Ethylene oxide is a gas produced in large quantities in the United States that is used primarily as a chemical intermediate in the production of ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, non-ionic surfactants, ethanolamines, glycol ethers, and other chemicals. It has been well established that ethylene oxide can induce cancer, genetic, reproductive and developmental, and acute health effects in animals. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently developing both a cancer potency factor and a reference concentration (RfC) for ethylene oxide. This study used the rich database on the reproductive and developmental effects of ethylene oxide to develop a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds for ethylene oxide. This analysis was based on the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, but involved several innovative elements, such as: (1) the use of advanced statistical methods to account for correlations in developmental outcomes among littermates and allow for simultaneous control of covariates (such as litter size); (2) the application of a probabilistic approach for characterizing the uncertainty in extrapolating the animal results to humans; and (3) the use of a quantitative approach to account for the variation in heterogeneity among the human population. This article presents several classes of results, including: (1) probabilistic characterizations of ED10s for two quantal reproductive outcomes-resorption and fetal death, (2) probabilistic characterizations of one developmental outcome-the dose expected to yield a 5% reduction in fetal (or pup) weight, (3) estimates of the RfCs that would result from using these values in the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, and (4) a probabilistic characterization of the level of ethylene oxide exposure that would be expected to yield a 1/1,000 increase in the risk of reproductive or developmental outcomes in exposed human populations.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Gay Becker, The Elusive Embryo: How Women and Men Approach New Reproductive Technologies Theodore Caplow, Louis Hicks, and Ben J. Wattenberg, The First Measured Century: An Illustrated Guide to Trends in America, 1900–2000 Stephen Moore and Julian L. Simon, It's Getting Better All the Time: 100 Greatest Trends of the Last 100 Years Elisabeth Croll, Endangered Daughters: Discrimination and Development in Asia Barbara Entwisle and Gail E. Henderson (Eds.), Re‐Drawing Boundaries: Work, Households, and Gender in China David T. Graham and Nana K. Poku (Eds.), Migration, Globalisation and Human Security Paul Harrison and Fred Pearce, AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment Russell King, Paolo De Mas, and Jan Mansvelt Beck (Eds.), Geography, Environment and Development in the Mediterranean Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and United Nations Population Fund, Low Fertility and Policy Responses to Issues of Ageing and Welfare National Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Report for the US Global Change Research Program Jacques Vaixin and Thérèse Locoh (Eds.), Population et développement en Tunisie: La métamorphose     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Adele E. Clarke , Disciplining Reproduction: Modernity, American Life Sciences, and “the Problems of Sex” Delia Davin , Internal Migration in Contemporary China Anton Kuijsten, Henk de Gans, and Henk de Feijter (eds.) The Joy of Demography… and Other Disciplines: Essays in Honour of Dirk van de Kaa William Petersen , Malthus: Founder of Modern Demography Eric B. Ross , The Malthus Factor: Population, Poverty and Politics in Capitalist Development Nicholas Van Hear , New Diasporas: The Mass Exodus, Dispersal and Regrouping of Migrant Communities Thomas M. Wilson and Hastings Donnan (eds.) , Border Identities: Nation and State at International Frontiers     

Seat belt laws: why we should keep them

In the June 2007 issue of Significance , John Adams argued for the repeal of seat belt laws. They have never been demonstrated to save lives, he said; and they increase the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed on the roads. Richard Allsop, Oliver Carsten, Andrew Evans and Robert Gifford argue that Parliament should keep the seat belt laws on the statute book and that we should all keep wearing belts whenever we travel in a car, van or coach—and they contest John's statistics.     

Veblen and darwinism

The aim of this article is to show how Veblen understood and applied Darwinian principles to his analysis of the evolution of socio-economic institutions. At the core of Darwinism is a commitment to causal explanation, which Veblen adopted while not undermining his appreciation of the distinctively purposeful nature of human action. In addition, Veblen applied the Darwinian principles of variation, inheritance and selection to institutional evolution. However, despite his achievement, he did not develop an adequate or systematic theory in this area.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey Mcnicoll (eds.), Encyclopedia of Population Barbara Ehrenreich and Arlie Russell Hochschild (eds.), Global Woman: Nannies, Maids, and Sex Workers in the New Economy Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030: An FAO Perspective and Summary Report Jeanne X. Kasperson and Roger E. Kasperson, Global Environmental Risk Richard Lynn, Eugenics: A Reassessment Douglas W. Maynard, Hanneke Houtkoop‐Steenstra, Nora Gate Schaeffer, and Johannes van der Zouwen (eds.), Standardization and Tacit Knowledge: Interaction and Practice in the Survey Anthony M. Messina (ed.), West European Immigration and Immigrant Policy in the New Century