China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

     

“沧浪之水”今何在?——文化生态系统视域下的文化生成、传播与实证研究

文化生态系统是特定文化生成、发展和传播的基础.文化内在的“生成性”特征决定了文化生成、发展和传播的基本规律.文化是特定“时间-历史”情境中的主体不断建构的结果,建构形成的“文化”又在新的“时间-历史”情境中得到继承、诠释和传播.纵观以“沧浪之水”为载体、以“有道则出、无道则隐”为核心的“沧浪文化”生成、发展和传播全过程, “沧浪文化”从文化的原始生长点出发,早期为扩展扩散,后期为迁移扩散;经由地理表征“升华”到经典文化中,又从经典文化“落实”到地理表征上的双向互动的生成和反身建构过程.就现实意义而言,不同地域的同类文化之间并非互相排斥而是互相联系、互相支持的关系,绝大多数地理性的“文化正宗”之争可以就此打住.     

Exploration and Firm Performance: The Moderating Impact of Competitive Strategy

In this study we examine the moderating effect of competitive strategy (including differentiation and cost‐leadership strategies) on the relationship between exploration and firm performance. We find that the moderating effect of differentiation strategy is positive while that of cost‐leadership strategy is negative. And, these moderating effects are stronger in a highly competitive context. This study offers an explanation for previous mixed findings on the linkage of exploration to firm performance and enriches the discipline's knowledge regarding the performance implications of exploration. Moreover, we respond directly to the appeal in research on competitive strategy to clarify the role played by competitive strategy in profiting from exploration.     

An adaptive-to-model test for partially parametric single-index models

Residual marked empirical process-based tests are commonly used in regression models. However, they suffer from data sparseness in high-dimensional space when there are many covariates. This paper has three purposes. First, we suggest a partial dimension reduction adaptive-to-model testing procedure that can be omnibus against general global alternative models although it fully use the dimension reduction structure under the null hypothesis. This feature is because that the procedure can automatically adapt to the null and alternative models, and thus greatly overcomes the dimensionality problem. Second, to achieve the above goal, we propose a ridge-type eigenvalue ratio estimate to automatically determine the number of linear combinations of the covariates under the null and alternative hypotheses. Third, a Monte-Carlo approximation to the sampling null distribution is suggested. Unlike existing bootstrap approximation methods, this gives an approximation as close to the sampling null distribution as possible by fully utilising the dimension reduction model structure under the null model. Simulation studies and real data analysis are then conducted to illustrate the performance of the new test and compare it with existing tests.     

交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应研究

文章利用探索性空间数据分析方法,发现2000-2014年我国区域经济发展存在显著的空间集群趋势以及正向空间自相关.利用2000年、2007年和2014年31个省份的数据,实证检验交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应.研究表明:资本、劳动力仍是区域经济增长的首要驱动要素,人力资本、政府支出、贸易开放度和交通基础设施发挥积极的协同作用.交通基础设施对区域经济增长的直接效应在总效应中仍占绝对优势,而传统研究未考虑空间溢出效应则将高估交通基础设施对经济增长的直接效应.     

从模因论的视角看文学翻译策略的选择

模因在同一文化中往往是通过模仿,尤其是语言进行传播.从模因论角度看,语言本身就是一种模因.语言经过模拟的手段得以丰富,而模因是人类与生俱来的能力.可以把文学翻译看作是异国文化的模因通过语言向本国传播的过程,文化模因的传播过程对文学翻译策略的选择产生影响.文学翻译中的归化策略是文化模因传播初期的必要阶段,异化翻译是文化模因传播发展的要求,而杂合翻译则是模因复制和传播的趋势.     

对自然界人工化价值的哲学审视

在生产方式推动的自然界人工化程度不断提高的过程中,整个自然界系统却越发无序,表现为人与自然关系的失衡。自然界的人工化改造虽是人类生存与发展的必然需求,但是,对于整个自然界而言,并非人工化程度越高越好。因此。为了重建人与自然的和谐,有必要从哲学角度重新审视自然界的人工化价值。     

劳动关系的支点:一种产权契约

企业的生产过程就是建立和维系劳动关系的过程,而劳动关系的建立和运行过程本身又是产权交易契约的签订和运行过程。从本质上来讲,早期的劳动关系可以概括为劳动力产权与物力资本产权的交易契约,而现代劳动关系则是人力资本产权与物力资本产权的交易契约。劳动关系的产权契约本质上是生产力发展和社会分工的必然结果,具有内在的经济合理性。     

需要·实践·人的解放

需要与实践的矛盾运动是人类社会存在和发展的基本条件。在私有制下,人的需要发生了异化,主要表现为：无穷拥有财富的需要,剥削控制他人的需要,精致与粗陋的需要,把劳动作为谋生手段的需要。同时,满足人的需要的劳动也与需要发生了分离和对立。马克思认为,消灭需要的异化过程也就是人的解放的实现过程,觉悟了的无产阶级通过阶级斗争消灭私有制是消灭需要的异化的必要条件,而生产劳动实践和自然科学对人的生活的改造则为人的解放准备了物质条件。     

中国环境NGO发展历程和环境治理潜能研究

改革开放以来,环境NGO已多方位参与到中国的环境治理工作中,但目前资金和人员不足、制度性支持不足等因素阻碍其应有功能的发挥。为充分发挥环境NGO巨大的环境治理潜能,必须继续松动政府主导型环境治理模式,加大对环境NGO的资金、人员援助,逐步解除制度性制约因素,使其在“资源节约型、环境友好型社会”构建过程中发挥积极作用,为中国环境治理事业做出应有贡献。