Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

民族院校新闻传播学科发展的路径选择

民族院校应该是以全面服务于非主流族群作为自身的基本定位，民族院校的新闻传播学科要在准确理解这一定位的基础上确立自身的发展路径，以鲜明的特色建构来强化自身的学科核心竞争力。     

德国应用技术大学的教学体系及其借鉴意义

德国应用技术大学(Fachhochscule)具有专业性、应用性、地域性等特征。文章研究了德国应用技术大学的学制、教学目标、课程体系及其实践教学的特点，并从教学安排、课程体系及实践教学三个方面与我国的情况进行了对比，在此基础上分析总结了其成功的经验及对我国普通高等工科院校教学改革的借鉴意义。     

犹在镜中——论张爱玲小说的电影感

在中国现代文学史上,不能说张爱玲是伟大的,但可以说她是深刻的.张爱玲的小说创作是富有特色的,她总是善于通过独特的视角去体味人生、阐释生命.她的小说是时代的记录、心灵的感言.她善于捕捉声、色、画、影去刻画人物,其电影化的创作方法很有新意.     

“苏东坡”：1000年前的诗人养生有道

苏东坡的文章著名、书法著名、食谱也很著名。     

WEIGHTED SUMS OF NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED RANDOM VARIABLES

In this paper, we establish strong laws for weighted sums of negatively associated (NA) random variables which have a higher‐order moment condition. Some results of Bai Z.D. & Cheng P.E. (2000) [Marcinkiewicz strong laws for linear statistics. Statist. and Probab. Lett. 43, 105–112,] and Sung S.K. (2001) [Strong laws for weighted sums of i.i.d. random variables, Statist. and Probab. Lett. 52, 413–419] are sharpened and extended from the independent identically distributed case to the NA setting. Also, one of the results of Li D.L. et al. (1995) [Complete convergence and almost sure convergence of weighted sums of random variables. J. Theoret. Probab. 8, 49–76,] is complemented and extended.     

论工艺的观念和审美属性

工艺不仅是一种现象 ,而且还是一种精神。对工艺内涵的界定 ,如果仅凭直观 ,是不可能满足定义要求的。为了正确地把握工艺的本质 ,需要运用辩证的思维和发展的眼光 ,在精神层面展开研究。同时 ,将其纳入人类审美文化发展的广阔的视野 ,才能进一步看清工艺的审美属性 ,了解它的价值和意义     

Theoretical consideration of effect of fishing mortality on growth and reproduction of fish populations

Summary An increase in fish mortality due to fishing can theoretically change the growth and reproduction of fish populations from the viewpoint of adaptation. We address the issue of how an iteroparous fish should convert surplus energy into somatic growth and reproduction at each age under given conditions of mortality. A model of life history, which maximizes the net reproductive rate using the discrete maximum principle, is improved employing a new relationship between body weight and surplus energy which we have recently proposed. The model is applied to the North Sea plaicePleuronectes platessa, for which it has been reported that the average length of young fish had increased whereas that of old ones had decreased for some decades. Although the model cannot directly explain the former phenomenon, the two phenomena can be interpreted as a change in the optimal life history due mainly to an increase in mortality.     

生存论视域中的理性观念

启蒙以来,理性被逐渐看作是自立的纯粹理性,与传统的终极实体观念分离。而从生存论角度来看,理性更多地体现为处境中人的一种反观能力,这种能力使人的生存更为秩序化。以这个方式理解理性,就可以在理性与信仰的关系中重建理性与终极实体的关系,即理性并不是自立的,而是有其被生发或开启的前提。它发生在对终极实体的开放状态中,而这才是启蒙的本来含义。     

科技传播研究:“普及范式”和“创新范式”

国内科技传播研究在近几年渐见繁荣之势。为了促进科技传播研究在国内更好地发展，文章讨论了已得到一定发展的“普及范式”和正在发展中的“创新范式”，认为面向未来知识经济的发展，需要推进“创新范式”的科技传播研究。