对科学发展观的历史解读

科学发展观是对马克思主义关于社会和自然关系原理的深化,是对世界各国社会发展理论与实践的借鉴,特别是对当代中国社会发展道路的经验总结和理论升华。中共中央几代领导集体的发展观从整体上说都是全面的,但由于时代的不同,存在着细微差别,出现了两次重大转变。     

论道德实践的基本诉求

道德实践是马克思主义人学思想的核心和一个根本性的维度,它在德育中的作用不可忽略。既然生活为道德实践提供了场所,那么德育就要回归生活,即回归儿童的真实生活,回归与儿童的身心发展相适应的生活,回归不断扩展的精神生活。     

政权移交后的美伊关系探析

6月28日，美英联军当局提前向伊临时政府移交权力，标志着伊拉克历时14个月的被占领状态在法律意义上正式结束，为实现“伊人治伊”目标迈出了重要一步。但临时政府将会遇到重重阻力和挑战，交权后，美对伊的控制地位不变，因此，未来的伊政治格局仍是美为幕后导演，登台主演的是伊临时政府。     

Goal Ambiguity and Organizational Performance in U.S. Federal Agencies

In spite of numerous observations that government organizationshave high levels of organizational goal ambiguity that exertmajor influences on their other characteristics, few researchershave measured goal ambiguity and tested these frequent assertions.In previous research, we developed measures of four dimensionsof goal ambiguity: mission comprehension ambiguity, directivegoal ambiguity, evaluative goal ambiguity, and priority goalambiguity. Confirming hypotheses developed from the literatureon public organizations, the latter three variables showed relationsto such organizational characteristics as organizational age,financial publicness (proportion of funding from governmentallocations), and regulatory status. This article reports asecond analytical step of examining the relations between thegoal ambiguity dimensions and indicators of organizational performancebased on responses to the 2000 National Partnership for ReinventingGovernment Survey of federal employees. The performance variablesincluded managerial effectiveness, customer service orientation,productivity, and work quality. Regression analyses with numerouscontrol variables found that directive, evaluative, and prioritygoal ambiguity related negatively to managerial effectiveness.All four performance indicators showed significant negativerelationships with evaluative goal ambiguity and directive goalambiguity. The results provide further evidence of the viabilityof the new measures of goal ambiguity, support theory-basedbut previously untested hypotheses, and further indicate thefeasibility and value of analyzing goal ambiguity of governmentorganizations.     

明清小说民间巫术和禁忌习俗描写中的悲情女性

明清小说所描述的民间巫术和禁忌习俗中,女性承受着身心双重的痛苦折磨,这是时代和社会悲剧的侧影。明清小说的作者过分宽容地演示了男性的霸权心理,而且延续了男权文化的女性评价标准,没有提供帮助女性战胜各种危险的可行性指导,也不可能培养女性积极进取、有效抗争的精神,其思想局限对民族精神造成的损害极其严重。     

政策主导传播

党和政府的新闻政策主导着新闻传播与经济产业发生怎样的联系与作用。制定什么样的新闻政策,就会出现什么样的传播内容,从而产生相应的媒介责任和媒介影响。此即文章所要论述的主要问题。     

Combining Inverse Probability Weighting and Multiple Imputation to Improve Robustness of Estimation

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation are two widely adopted approaches dealing with missing data. The former models the selection probability, and the latter models data distribution. Consistent estimation requires correct specification of corresponding models. Although the augmented IPW method provides an extra layer of protection on consistency, it is usually not sufficient in practice as the true data‐generating process is unknown. This paper proposes a method combining the two approaches in the same spirit of calibration in sampling survey literature. Multiple models for both the selection probability and data distribution can be simultaneously accounted for, and the resulting estimator is consistent if any model is correctly specified. The proposed method is within the framework of estimating equations and is general enough to cover regression analysis with missing outcomes and/or missing covariates. Results on both theoretical and numerical investigation are provided.     

A Necessary Condition for the Strong Oracle Property

A problem of using a non‐convex penalty for sparse regression is that there are multiple local minima of the penalized sum of squared residuals, and it is not known which one is a good estimator. The aim of this paper is to give a guide to design a non‐convex penalty that has the strong oracle property. Here, the strong oracle property means that the oracle estimator is the unique local minimum of the objective function. We summarize three definitions of the oracle property – the global, weak and strong oracle properties. Then, we give sufficient conditions for the weak oracle property, which means that the oracle estimator becomes a local minimum. We give an example of non‐convex penalties that possess the weak oracle property but not the strong oracle property. Finally, we give a necessary condition for the strong oracle property.     

因子模型门槛效应的LM和Wald检验及其统计性质研究

门槛因子模型可以有效地刻画高维度时间序列的共变特征和区制转换行为,具有良好的可解释性和预测能力。针对因子载荷矩阵存在的门槛效应,本文提出了拉格朗日乘子和沃尔德检验方法,并给出了渐近分布,相关结果表明以上检验统计量具有良好的大样本性质和有限样本表现。在实证部分,以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象,通过构建门槛因子模型来刻画我国股票市场波动的共变性特征和非对称效应。实证结果表明基于门槛因子模型可以很好地刻画中国股市行业收益率波动的共变特征和区制转换行为。