Optimal paired comparison designs for first-order interactions

In many fields of applications paired comparisons are used in which either full or partial profiles of the alternatives are presented. For this situation we introduce an appropriate model and derive optimal designs in the presence of interactions when all attributes have the same number of levels.     

The Failings of Three Event Perception Theories

Empirical research on the perception of physical events is rarely designed to test a particular theory. The research often fails to be embedded in a larger theoretical context or it is carried out with the implicit goal to support a particular theoretical approach. I argue that this is not very productive. While three theories are relevant for our understanding of events, their limits have rarely been addressed. I expose these limits. The three theories or approaches are (1) direct or ecological perception, (2) inference theory, and (3) the concept of internalization. I demonstrate that all three fail empirically and/or theoretically with respect to explaining the perception of events. They fail because they adhere to simplistic stationary views or because they remain too vague. An adequate theory of event perception has to include three factors at the level of the explanans, namely the stimulus, the purpose of the action to which the percept belongs, and the appraisal of this action's success. Examples from the domains of arrival-time judgment and perception of events involving classical mechanics are used to support the claims. I suggest that a new pragmatic theory of event perception ought to modify and to incorporate the three concepts of affordances, thought-like processes, and evolutionary principles.     

Approximate and exact optimal designs for paired comparisons of partial profiles when there are two groups of factors

For paired comparison experiments involving pairs of multifactor options differing in a specified number of factors the problem of finding optimal designs is considered, when only main effects are to be estimated. It is presumed that the set of factors can be partitioned into two groups such that the number of levels is constant within each group. The optimal designs for this frequently encountered case are also optimal for the corresponding choice experiments under the hypothesis that the parameters in the multinomial logit model are equal to zero.     

Optimal design for discrete choice experiments

In this paper we derive locally optimal designs for discrete choice experiments. As in Kanninen (2002) we consider a multinomial logistic model, which contains various qualitative attributes as well as a quantitative one, which may range over a sufficiently large interval. The derived optimal designs improve upon those given in the literature, but have the feature that every choice set contains alternatives, which coincide in all but the quantitative attributes. The multinomial logistic model will then lead to a response behavior, which is apparently unrealistic.     

基于供应链管理的制造企业服务管理体系的建构

制造企业的供应链构成十分复杂,为明确管理标的首先对管理主体进行了界定,通过对工业服务研究文献分析揭示了制造企业从产品向服务转移的发展趋势。按照以制造企业为管理主体向上下游扩展的分析途径从工业服务需求、服务内部管理及服务业务开发角度分析了基于供应链的制造企业服务管理战略框架,以期为制造企业服务管理理论研究及实践提供借鉴。     

Optimal planning of phase II/III programs for clinical trials with multiple endpoints

Owing to increased costs and competition pressure, drug development becomes more and more challenging. Therefore, there is a strong need for improving efficiency of clinical research by developing and applying methods for quantitative decision making. In this context, the integrated planning for phase II/III programs plays an important role as numerous quantities can be varied that are crucial for cost, benefit, and program success. Recently, a utility‐based framework has been proposed for an optimal planning of phase II/III programs that puts the choice of decision boundaries and phase II sample sizes on a quantitative basis. However, this method is restricted to studies with a single time‐to‐event endpoint. We generalize this procedure to the setting of clinical trials with multiple endpoints and (asymptotically) normally distributed test statistics. Optimal phase II sample sizes and go/no‐go decision rules are provided for both the “all‐or‐none” and “at‐least‐one” win criteria. Application of the proposed method is illustrated by drug development programs in the fields of Alzheimer disease and oncology.     

Designs for first-order interactions in paired comparison experiments with two-level factors

For paired comparison experiments involving options described by a common set of two-level factors a new method for generating exact designs is presented. These designs allow the efficient estimation of main effects and first-order interactions and perform better than alternative designs available in the literature.     

Eroding societal trust: a game-changer for EU policies and institutions?†

Trust is a fundamental condition for a fair and cooperative society. But what if trust collapses? This article is interested in the disrupting effects a further erosion or even collapse of trust could have for European Union (EU) policies and institutions. It is argued that a breakdown of trust could create serious risks, but also opportunities, and is therefore an important factor that the EU must consider when designing its future policies and strategies. To this end – by using a forward-looking and trend impact analysis approach – the article provides insights and options on how strategic political responses for the EU could look like to turn the trend around and again enhance trust in the European project. Empirically, it addresses issue and policy areas such as trust in political systems, justice, science, economic regulation, cyberspace, surveillance as well as ethnic and religious diversity.     

Belastungs- und Preiswirkungen der Missbrauchsbesteuerung bei Anteilsveräußerung nach Sacheinlage in eine Kapitalgesellschaft

In cases of contribution of assets into a corporation and subsequent sale of the participation by the shareholder within a retention period of seven years, the anti-abuse provision of article 22 paragraph 1 UmwStG is applied. Underlying the effects of the anti-abuse regulation on marginal share prices, the analysis shows no tax induced disadvantage in comparison with conventional law, provided that the present value of tax savings resulting from the increase in depreciation caused by the anti-abuse regulation is high enough and compensated in the purchase price. In terms of transparency and tax-law simplification, rejection of this anti-abuse provision is required.