Generic reversible jump MCMC using graphical models

Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques have revolutionized the field of Bayesian statistics. Their power is so great that they can even accommodate situations in which the structure of the statistical model itself is uncertain. However, the analysis of such trans-dimensional (TD) models is not easy and available software may lack the flexibility required for dealing with the complexities of real data, often because it does not allow the TD model to be simply part of some bigger model. In this paper we describe a class of widely applicable TD models that can be represented by a generic graphical model, which may be incorporated into arbitrary other graphical structures without significantly affecting the mechanism of inference. We also present a decomposition of the reversible jump algorithm into abstract and problem-specific components, which provides infrastructure for applying the method to all models in the class considered. These developments represent a first step towards a context-free method for implementing TD models that will facilitate their use by applied scientists for the practical exploration of model uncertainty. Our approach makes use of the popular WinBUGS framework as a sampling engine and we illustrate its use via two simple examples in which model uncertainty is a key feature.     

Die Low-Cost-Hypothese

The Low-Cost-Hypothesis (LCH) postulates that the effect of attitudes on behavior varies with the costs at stake in the situation. The effect is deemed to be higher in low-cost-situations, compared to high-cost-situations. We argue that a closer look at the literature reveals two distinct versions of the LCH, which have not been disentangled so far. We reconstruct both versions ?C the ??simple?? and the ??specific?? version of the LCH ?C and discuss their theoretical foundations and empirical implications. The ??simple?? version can be derived from a simple expected utility model. In this model, attitudes and (tangible) behavioral costs exert independent effects on the net utility of the action alternatives. A conditional effect of the attitudes that depends on the behavioral costs only exists with respect to the probability of choosing an action alternative. However, this dependence of marginal effects on the actor??s initial level of utility or probability holds for any independent variable or utility argument. A second, ??specific?? version of the LCH postulates a variable-specific interaction effect between attitudes and costs. We point to the problems of previous approaches to deriving such a specific hypothesis and identify dual-process-theories as an alternative theoretical foundation that allows understanding the limited scope conditions of the specific LCH. The article carries important conclusions for empirical applications and tests of the LCH in diverse fields of sociological research and, more generally, for the decision-theoretic analysis of social action.     

The silence of numbers: A split-sample experiment concerning respondents' linguistic sensitivity in Danish survey studies

This article presents, for the first time in English, findings from a Danish research project on language comprehension and memory as generators of measurement problems in sociological and other social-science survey studies. Utilizing survey questionnaires as instruments of measurements, the article deals with the linguistic sensitivity of Danish adults and the measurement problems it entails. The article uncovers the nature and extent of statistically significant response differences due to moderate linguistic changes. The article problematizes the trustworthiness of Danish social-science survey studies and provides evidence that respondents' answers to survey questions depend to a marked extent on the latter's wording. The empirical basis is a split-sample experiment in which 1900 respondents completed two versions of the 'same' questionnaire.     

Restricted domination parameters in graphs

In a graph G, a vertex dominates itself and its neighbors. A subset S ⊂eqV(G) is an m-tuple dominating set if S dominates every vertex of G at least m times, and an m-dominating set if S dominates every vertex of G−S at least m times. The minimum cardinality of a dominating set is γ, of an m-dominating set is γ _m , and of an m-tuple dominating set is mtupledom. For a property π of subsets of V(G), with associated parameter f_π, the k-restricted π-number r _k (G,f_π) is the smallest integer r such that given any subset K of (at most) k vertices of G, there exists a π set containing K of (at most) cardinality r. We show that for 1< k < n where n is the order of G: (a) if G has minimum degree m, then r _k (G,γ _m ) < (mn+k)/(m+1); (b) if G has minimum degree 3, then r _k (G,γ) < (3n+5k)/8; and (c) if G is connected with minimum degree at least 2, then r _k (G,ddom) < 3n/4 + 2k/7. These bounds are sharp. Research supported in part by the South African National Research Foundation and the University of KwaZulu-Natal.     

When near means related: evidence from three web survey experiments on inter-item correlations in grid questions

In this article, we present the results of three question design experiments on inter-item correlations, which tested a grid design against a single-item design. The first and second experiments examined the inter-item correlations of a set with five and seven items, respectively, and the third experiment examined the impact of the question design on inter-item correlations of follow-up questions. We found that the inter-item correlations in grid designs were higher for both the set of five and seven items than for questions in a single-item design. Additionally, the inter-item correlations of the set of follow-up questions were higher if the preceding set of questions was presented in a grid. According to the findings of the present research, respondents seem to apply the interpretative near means related heuristic when answering grid questions, and also when answering follow-up questions preceeded by grid questions.     

Could EGM player-tracking systems help link gamblers to treatment services in Australia: a thematic analysis of counsellor and community educators’ perspectives

There are a number of different pathways to care that people experiencing problems with gambling may pursue. The current research examined the potential of player-tracking systems, such as pre-commitment technology or loyalty cards, to improve the delivery of links to treatment. Thirty-three key informants from gambling treatment and community education in Australia were interviewed about the potential contributions of these technologies to helping link gamblers with problems to treatment services. Thematic analysis revealed three broad considerations for effective links to treatment using these technologies. First, links need to be appropriate in terms of the multitude of problems (other than gambling) that people might face with customized links appropriate to a gambler’s circumstances. Second, the presentation of the links should make them easy to notice and appropriately timed. Third, links should be provided as part of a broader strategy of harm minimization; by recognizing where people are in terms of behavioural change; providing positively framed guidance; and maintaining consistency with public health approaches. This research provides guidance based on informed expert opinion on what features of technology-driven links-to-treatment are likely to meet with greatest success.     

Middle-Range Future Claims: Constructing the Near-Future Consequences of COVID-19

The extraordinary social and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has generated many claims about the middle-range future—the period beginning in the late summer or early fall of 2020 and projected to last for some months or years. This paper surveys those assertions and seeks to explain the factors that led to them. Exploring questions about future claims can expand the scope of social problems theory.     

The impact of attitudes and behavioral costs on environmental behavior: A natural experiment on household waste recycling

Numerous studies have shown the importance of incentives as well as of attitudes in explaining pro-environmental behavior. Reported attitude effects, however, are generally rather small and exhibit considerable variation among studies. Different theoretical perspectives can account for this finding: whereas theories of rational action suggest additive effects of costs and attitudes, the low-cost hypothesis and dual-process theories imply interaction effects - in different directions, resulting from different mechanisms. The present study tries to overcome the shortcomings of past research by using advanced statistical methods to test competitive hypotheses in the context of post-consumer waste recycling. We utilize data from a natural experiment on recycling participation in Cologne/Germany (n = 1882) in which the incentive structure for recycling changed due to the conversion of the recycling scheme from a drop-off system to curbside collection. In order to avoid self-selection bias, we conducted pre- and post-treatment surveys and applied conditional fixed-effects regression models. We found that curbside collection had a strong impact on recycling participation and attitudes had a moderate effect. The interaction is negative but statistically insignificant. Our findings contradict the low-cost hypothesis and provide some evidence that environmental concerns moderate the effect of the recycling scheme. We cannot, however, reject the rational choice proposition of mere additive effects.     

The social construction of pain: an evaluation

Drawing upon the work of Hughes and Patterson, this paper addresses the issue of whether a socially constructed conception of pain is possible or desirable. Contrary to a number of postmodern inspired conceptions that pain exists exclusively at the level of discourse and linguistic construction, pain is viewed as a material barrier that exists beyond the politico-aesthetic level. The body is much more than a canvas upon which we can create appropriate discursive formation to incorporate within our preferred conception of 'self'. To recognize the existence of biologically based realities is not to accept biological dysfunction as the sole cause of disability or any other form of reactionary politics of disability.