内陆外向型城市建设的障碍因素集层次结构分析模型

本文以西安内陆外向型城市建设为例，运用系统工程的基本思想、网络理论及综合评价技术，构建了内陆外向型城市建设的障碍因素集层次结构分析模型，找到了西安内陆外向型城市建设的主要和次要障碍因素集，提出了在目前和今后较长的一段时间内，西安内陆外向型城市建设的主要任务是大力发展第三产业。本模型方法对其它地区的内陆外向型城市建设及复杂的社会经济系统障碍因素定量分析研究也有较好的参考价值     

Family roles and female mortality differentials across cultures: an inquiry of cultural adaptation in industrialization

The relationship between family support systems and female mortality in Chinese and American cultures is studied using 1980 official data from Taiwan and the United States. The differences in female mortality by marital status support the hypotheses that Chinese families provide greater support for older than younger females, and that the emphasis on filial piety in Chinese society provides more support for the elderly by Chinese than American children.     

A survey of the family planning work done in Dongguan County

The total fertility rate of women of childbearing age of Dongguan County in China has been decreasing gradually from 5.9 during the period following the liberation in 1949 to 2.05 in 1982. In order to encourage young couples to implement the policy of family planning consciously, the people's government of Dongguan county decided in July 1980 that all cadres and employees in county towns who received 1-child certificates would be exempted from house rent of 45 square meters from the time they get their certificates and would be allocated a living space of a 2-children family until their children reached age 16. It also stipulated that every couple could enjoy 1 month's holiday every year for 3 years and during the holiday, their salary, bonus and rate of attendance would not be affected. Because women bear less children today, they are relieved from heavy household chores and become the main working force in collective production. As a result, the development of town-run enterprises was stimulated and the total industrial output value of these enterprises increased. The average monthly salary of each female worker is about 100 yuan. In 1984, the average income per capita of the country rose to 649.2 yuan. The implementation of family planning work has eased the tension in the education field. Previously, because of the large number of school-age children in rural areas, teachers had to teach 2 classes. In the past 4 years, great emphasis was laid on intellectual investment. During this period, 2351 schools were built and several fundraising projects were implemented. Since 1981, more than 200 new running water projects were built, and new public services have been developed, including old age homes.     

Generalized Leverage and its Applications

The generalized leverage of an estimator is defined in regression models as a measure of the importance of individual observations. We derive a simple but powerful result, developing an explicit expression for leverage in a general M -estimation problem, of which the maximum likelihood problems are special cases. A variety of applications are considered, most notably to the exponential family non-linear models. The relationship between leverage and local influence is also discussed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results     

獭兔养殖综合技术研究

对獭兔的适应性、饲养管理、疾病防治、产品加工等养殖综合技术进行了研究,提出了獭兔的“三改、两杯、两早一分和两选两适”规范化饲养管理制度和疾病综合防治技术措施,探索出了优质獭兔毛皮和“富钙兔肉脯”的加工工艺以及獭兔良种推广的有效途径。     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

甘肃省藏族学龄女童失、辍学现象的原因分析及对策建议

甘肃藏族地区学龄女童辍学、流失现象比较严重,本文通过对甘南藏族自治州三县18个藏族聚居区村庄的实地走访调研,在充分掌握藏族地区女童教育实际的基础上,针对女童教育中存在的问题探求发生问题的原因,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

数字金融对农户气候适应性行为的影响

气候适应性技术采用率低下已成为制约农业可持续发展的重要因素,数字金融可能影响农户的气候适应性行为。基于河南、陕西、山西三省1 384份农户微观调查数据,运用内生转换回归模型构建反事实分析框架,实证分析数字金融使用对农户气候适应性行为的影响效应及其作用机制。研究发现:使用数字金融能显著促进农户气候适应性技术采纳行为,具体表现为在反事实假设下,使用数字金融的农户若未使用其气候适应性技术采纳程度将下降;未使用数字金融的农户如果使用了,其气候适应性技术采纳程度将上升。机制分析表明,数字金融能够提高借贷易得性与信息易得性,进而促进农户采纳气候适应性行为,农户对于金融包容性的认知能够正向增强数字金融对农户气候适应性行为的影响效应。异质性分析表明,数字金融使用对于资本型适应性行为影响的边际效应最大,在反事实假设下也表现为数字金融使用对农户资本型适应性行为提升效果最强;数字金融对农业收入占家庭收入比率较高、接受过培训的农户采纳气候适应性技术促进效应更高。     

刘渊感生神话的历史形成

《晋书》卷101《刘元海载记》云:“豹(刘渊之父)妻呼延氏,魏嘉平中祈子于龙门,俄而有一大鱼,顶有二角,轩鬐跃鳞而至祭所,久之乃去。巫觋皆异之,曰:‘此嘉祥也。’其夜梦旦所见鱼变为人,左手把一物,大如半鸡子,光景非常,授呼延氏,曰:‘此是日精,服之生贵子。’寤而告豹,豹曰:‘吉征也。吾昔从邯郸张冏母司徒氏相,云吾当有贵子孙,三世必大昌。仿像相符矣。’自是十三月而生元海,左手文有其名,遂以名焉。”该神话以神秘主义的方式对后汉建立者刘渊(即刘元海)的出生进行了详尽生动的表述,堪称古代政治感生神话的一个典型例子。《晋书》为唐初史…     

日本过疏地区开发方式及政策的演变

战后日本区域经济发展呈明显的两极分化态势。一方面是大量的经济功能和财富聚集在以东京为首的三大城市经济圈,另一方面是边远过疏地区的人口急剧减少和经济衰退。日本纠正地区差距对策的重点是扶持和援助过疏地区的发展。本文重点论述过疏地区治理政策中以基础设施建设和公共投资为特征的开发方式的局限性,同时对20世纪90年代学术界提出的以过疏地区为主体的内生式发展方式进行分析,最后梳理近年日本政府新实施的且对过疏地区影响很大的农业收入直接补贴政策。