"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).     

民族地区干部如何看待民族地区加快发展问题--云南地方干部问卷调查分析报告

新世纪中国民族地区面临的最大机遇是社会发展指标追赶的机遇,面临的最大挑战是人类贫困,从而使民族地区传统发展战略和宏观管理政策将面临着严峻的挑战。因此,本文依据具有民族地区代表性的云南地方干部调查问卷统计分析结果,通过考察民族地区发展战略的制定者和宏观管理政策的执行者——民族地区干部——对民族地区加快发展问题的认识和理解,总结出了一些有益的政策启示。     

明清时期瑶族地区的学校教育

明清时期,瑶族地区的学校教育得到了前所未有的发展,封建统治阶级在瑶族地区大力兴办儒学、社学、义学,推动了瑶族子弟向学之风的形成,培养了一批瑶族知识分子。但受瑶族社会经济发展不平衡性的影响,瑶族地区教育发展的不平衡性亦十分突出,并一直影响至今。     

"百苗图"源流考略--以《黔苗图说》为范本

“百苗图”是历史背景较为复杂的一种反映贵州古代少数民族的地方文献,其版本众多。据考,它们是源自清人陈浩著的《八十二种苗图并说》。关于其母本的产生历史,学术界纷争不一。《黔苗图说》是贵州省博物馆收藏的一部较为典型的百苗图册页。本文以它为例,试对“百苗图”的源流做一些考证。并认为其母本并非某一时代实地调查的第一手资料,而主要是利用许多地方文献的相关材料编纂成册。     

文化力量与非主流人群的教育策略奥格布文化参照框架差异理论述评

美国少数民族学业成绩的多样性是美国教育面临的最大困境。本文试图通过介绍和评价美国教育人类学家奥格布的文化参照框架的差异理论对这一问题的解释和对策,以期为解决我国民族教育发展不平衡问题提供某些借鉴。     

中国的日本研究学术会议(2006)纪要

由中华日本学会、北京大学亚太研究院、复旦大学日本研究中心共同主办的“中国的日本研究学术会议(2006)”3月21—22日在北京大学召开。来自全国40余家科研机构、大学、媒体等的近70名代表出席了会议。会议开幕式由中华日本学会副会长、北京大学亚太研究院副院长李玉主持。学会     

Cox regression of clustered event times with covariates missing not at random

Motivated by a recent tuberculosis (TB) study, this paper is concerned with covariates missing not at random (MNAR) and models the potential intracluster correlation by a frailty. We consider the regression analysis of right‐censored event times from clustered subjects under a Cox proportional hazards frailty model and present the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (SPMLE) of the model parameters. An easy‐to‐implement pseudo‐SPMLE is then proposed to accommodate more realistic situations using readily available supplementary information on the missing covariates. Algorithms are provided to compute the estimators and their consistent variance estimators. We demonstrate that both the SPMLE and the pseudo‐SPMLE are consistent and asymptotically normal by the arguments based on the theory of modern empirical processes. The proposed approach is examined numerically via simulation and illustrated with an analysis of the motivating TB study data.     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

Sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment and probable Alzheimer’s disease as predicted by hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities

This study examined biological sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable Alzheimer’s disease (AD) development as predicted by changes in the hippocampus or white matter hyperintensities. A secondary data analysis of the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set was conducted. We selected samples of participants with normal cognition at baseline who progressed to MCI (n = 483) and those who progressed to probable AD (n = 211) to determine if hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities (WMH) at baseline predicted progression to probable AD or MCI and whether the rate of progression differed between men and women. The survival analyses indicated that changes in hippocampal volumes affected the progression to probable AD (HR = 0.535, 95% CI [0.300–0.953]) only among women. White men had an increased rate of progression to AD (HR = 4.396, CI [1.012–19.08]; HR = 4.665, 95% CI [1.072–20.29]) compared to men in other race and ethnic groups. Among women, increases in hippocampal volume ratio led to decreased rates of progressing to MCI (HR = 0.386, 95% CI [0.166–0.901]). Increased WMH among men led to faster progression to MCI (HR = 1.048. 95% CI [1.011–1.086]). Women and men who were older at baseline were more likely to progress to MCI. In addition, results from longitudinal analyses showed that women with a higher CDR global score, older age at baseline, or more disinhibition symptoms experienced higher odds of MCI development. Changes in hippocampal volumes affect the progression to or odds of probable AD (and MCI) more so among women than men, while changes in WMH affected the progression to MCI only among men.     

甘肃省藏族学龄女童失、辍学现象的原因分析及对策建议

甘肃藏族地区学龄女童辍学、流失现象比较严重,本文通过对甘南藏族自治州三县18个藏族聚居区村庄的实地走访调研,在充分掌握藏族地区女童教育实际的基础上,针对女童教育中存在的问题探求发生问题的原因,并提出了相应的对策建议。