苏州市人口老龄化分析

基于对苏州市第四次人口普查人口年龄结构的分析,本文认为苏州市已进入人口老年型早期。文中论述了该市人口老龄化的现状、过程及趋势,剖析了过去与未来主导这一进程的不同的人口学因素,特别强调了控制人口增长对这一进程的作用。文中预测现在和今后的二十年内人口老龄化发展较缓,总抚养比较低,正届人口构成上的“黄金时期”,面临着实现经济跃升的契机。其后,人口老龄化将以空前的速度进行。抓住当前的契机也是今后从根本意义上解决好老龄人口问题所必需的。     

论非专利技术的转让

非专利技术在技术转让中占有越来越重要的地位,其表现形式的多样化、内容的广泛性以及不受时间、空间限制的特点都使其较之专利技术更为有实用价值。非专利技术是以占有人采取保密的形式而形成事实上的独占资产。因而,在技术转让中,合同成为其唯一获得法律保护的途径。本文从非专利技术的产权确定、价格形成的依据以及非专利技术的保密等方面作了论述,说明非专利技术存在的价值以及在转让中应注意的问题。     

软腐欧文氏菌对大白菜根毛吸附的专化性

分3个层次测定了软腐欧文氏菌(Erwinia carotovora susp carotovora)对大白菜根毛吸附的专化性.病菌吸附表现出对寄主根毛表面的选择性、病原细菌与寄主问的专化性、吸附菌量在病菌不同菌株和奇主不同品种间的差异.讨论了病菌吸附专化性在寄主-病原物识别中的意义.     

水蒸气钝化裂化催化剂工艺条件的探讨

对共Y-15裂化催化剂在模拟工业条件下进行了不同温度、压力和时间的水蒸气处理,考察了其钝化效果,将高温水蒸气的钝化效果与锑钝化剂的钝化效果进行了比较.结果表明,前者的钝化效果优于后者;经高温水蒸气钝化后的裂化催化剂能在微活性不显著降低的前提下,使氢气产率、焦炭产率显著降低.     

国有银行金融交易结构比较与其金融风险状态分析

在传统体制下,我国国有银行是一种行政机关及经济组织的捏合体,垄断信用、统存统贷,并履行结算支付职能,充当“公共簿记”。在社会经济活动有限的债权债务关系中,银行的最终债权人与最终债务人都是国家,银行经营成果及收支最后均由财政统一包揽,事实上并不存在真正...     

样本老化理论与实证分析——住户调查样本轮换频率加速试点研究

一、样本老化的影响因素在抽样推断统计中,人们为研究社会经济现象的动态变化速度及趋势,往往采用固定样本的方式进行连续调查。这既可以保证资料的可比性,又可以节省调查费用。然而在住户调查中,基期的样本到报告期在许多方面都显现出不适应,这种不适应性被称之为样...     

Designing a variable sampling plan based on Taguchi's loss function

This paper discusses the problem of designing a new variable sampling plan. Suppose that the lot quality characteristic obeys an exponential distribution. Adopting Taguchi's loss function, the objective is to design a plan under which the producer's risk of rejecting a lot that has a specified average loss per item is no greater than alpha, and the consumer's risk of accepting a lot that has a specified average loss per item is no greater than beta. The method of designing this plan is an extension of the method used by Derman and Ross.     

Expressing Estimators of Expected Quality Adjusted Survival as Functions of Nelson-Aalen Estimators

Quality adjusted survival has been increasingly advocated in clinical trials to be assessed as a synthesis of survival and quality of life. We investigate nonparametric estimation of its expectation for a general multistate process with incomplete follow-up data. Upon establishing a representation of expected quality adjusted survival through marginal distributions of a set of defined events, we propose two estimators for expected quality adjusted survival. Expressed as functions of Nelson-Aalen estimators, the two estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive their asymptotic variances and propose sample-based variance estimates, along with evaluation of asymptotic relative efficiency. Monte Carlo studies show that these estimation procedures perform well for practical sample sizes. We illustrate the methods using data from a national, multicenter AIDS clinical trial.     

Constructing optimal designs for fitting pharmacokinetic models

We consider some computational issues that arise when searching for optimal designs for pharmacokinetic (PK) studies. Special factors that distinguish these are (i) repeated observations are taken from each subject and the observations are usually described by a nonlinear mixed model (NLMM), (ii) design criteria depend on the model fitting procedure, (iii) in addition to providing efficient parameter estimates, the design must also permit model checking, (iv) in practice there are several design constraints, (v) the design criteria are computationally expensive to evaluate and often numerical integration is needed and finally (vi) local optimisation procedures may fail to converge or get trapped at local optima.We review current optimal design algorithms and explore the possibility of using global optimisation procedures. We use these latter procedures to find some optimal designs.For multi-purpose designs we suggest two surrogate design criteria for model checking and illustrate their use.     

韩国的金融政策与金融危机及对我国的警示

金融危机的爆发对经济发展的危害是巨大的,受这次金融风暴直接冲击的国家,其经济实力普遍倒退７至１０年。其中韩国因货币贬值五成,其经济规模已由世界排名第１２位降至第１７位,人均国民生产总值由１９９６年的１０５４８美元降至目前的６６６４美元,经济实力倒退了...