哈尔滨市方正县自然与民族历史资源的开发利用研究

本文介绍了哈尔滨市方正县的自然与民族历史旅游资源的状况,并对发展当地的旅游业提出了对策和建议。     

从"权利"到"仪式":南非的艾滋病行动主义

在本文中,我考察了南非HIV/AIDS行动主义的道德政治如何有助于公民身份(citizen-ship)新形式的出现,这种新形式既与基于权利(rights-based)的斗争相关,又与个体HIV/AIDS患者对病痛和污名化(stigmatization)极端体验的共享意义相关。我指出,可以确定的是,正是晚期艾滋病患者"接近死亡"的绝境体验、以及与这种疾病晚期阶段相连的巨大污名和"社会死亡",为HIV/AIDS的幸存者对"新生命"和社会行动主义的委身提供了平台。行动主义者的干预和对这些创伤经验的重述也推动了HIV/AIDS对行动主义的委身和社会底层的动员。此外,污名和社会死亡的巨大否定性也驱使行动主义者重建对HIV检测呈阳性人群新的、正面的身份认同,并促使他们思考,作为一名公民-行动主义者和一项社会运动的成员意味着什么。     

后现代语境下的"写文化"与"写文化之后"

80年代 ,人类学曾经出现了一个引人注目的“写文化”大论争 ,其代表就是《写文化 :民族志的诗学和政治学》与《作为文化批评的人类学 :一个人文学科的实验时代》。其核心问题就是民族志写作中的修辞、叙事的政治和策略等 ,对传统民族志提出反思和挑战。之后 ,一些人类学家鉴于“写文化”基本只是提出问题 ,却没有提供答案 ,于 1998年结集出版了《写文化之后 :当代人类学的认识论和实践》 ,试图提出一些可能的方案。反观“写文化”和“写文化之后” ,我们可以看到一些对人类学理论和实践发展具有深刻意义的方面。     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

购物中心的商户关系研究

本文基于共生理论尝试性的对购物中心内商户间的相互关系进行了研究,论文选取了竞争、寄生与互惠这三种主要关系进行分析,提出以服饰类和珠宝类商户为代表的同质商户存在着同业聚集的经济效应,这时的同业竞争相对经济效应而言属于次要地位;主力店的选择和自身所处的位置决定了寄生关系的存在与作用大小,一部分非主力店能够凭借自身的吸引力获得客流;在异质商户之间,消耗性生活便利品与超市具有高度互补性,另外百货店与衣服鞋类专卖店也具有高互补性;但是消耗性生活用品与百货店,专卖店与超市的互补性都较低。     

城市滨水旧住区问题分析及对策研究——以上海市长风新村街道沿河旧住区为例

一、引言 进入21世纪以来,城市滨水地区由于其悠久的发展历史、丰厚的文化底蕴和重要的城市区位,成为政府、公众和开发商关注的焦点,因此,滨水地带的复兴成为中国城市发展的中心议题之一.     

Labor force participation and juvenile delinquency in Taiwan: a time series analysis

This study examines the null hypothesis of Granger no-causality between labor force participation (LFP) and juvenile delinquency in Taiwan. In order to explore this issue more thoroughly, this study adopts the approach proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250). It uses official time-series data provided by the Government of Taiwan. After estimating both a four- and five-variable VAR system, one that substitutes both male and female LFP rates for the aggregate LFP rate, the primary findings of this study reveal the following: The higher the past juvenile crime rate, the lower the future aggregate and female LFP rate will be. In addition, the higher the past male LFP rate, the higher the future juvenile crime rate will be. These findings are quite robust in terms of different lag-length structures.

构建保险分支机构内控制度的对策研究

保险分支机构内控制度是保险监管和保险业风险管理的重要微观基础,当前我国保险分支机构内部控制制度建设普遍滞后于保险行业的发展,落后于保险监管和行业风险管理要求,存在一系列突出矛盾和问题。为此,一要强化分支机构改革和完善内控的内部动力,严格执行监管部门制定的制度建设指引;二要通过保险公司、监管机构、行业协会及其他相关部门给分支机构施加更强的外部压力,二者共同作用以进一步促进保险分支机构加快完善内控制度,提高保险分支机构及其所属公司管理和防范经营风险的能力,最终达到夯实保险业风险管理基础的根本目标。     

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE JAPANESE JUST-IN-TIME TECHNIQUE (WITH KANBANS) FOR A MULTILINE,MULTISTAGE PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The Japanese “just-in-time with kanban” technique reduces in-process inventory to absolute minimal levels, in concert with the Japanese belief that inventory is an unnecessary evil. Due to the success of Japanese firms that employ this type of system, American firms would like to import this technique and emulate Japanese successes. But this Japanese success may be attributable not only to the just-in-time with kanban technique but also to the production environment in which the technique is employed. This paper simulates the just-in-time with kanban technique for a multiline, multistage production system in order to determine its adaptability to an American production environment that might include such characteristics as variable processing times, variable master production scheduling, and imbalances between production stages. The results have practical implications for those firms considering adoption of the Japanese technique.