Bayesian ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixtures

Experience ratemaking plays a crucial role in general insurance in determining future premiums of individuals in a portfolio by assessing observed claims from the whole portfolio. This paper investigates this problem in which claims can be modeled by certain parametric family of distributions. The Dirichlet process mixtures are employed to model the distributions of the parameters so as to make two advantages: to produce exact Bayesian experience premiums for a class of premium principles generated from generic error functions and, at the same time, provide robust and flexible ways to avoid possible bias caused by traditionally used priors such as non informative priors or conjugate priors. In this paper, the Bayesian experience ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixture models are investigated and due to the lack of analytical forms of the conditional expectations of the quantities concerned, the Gibbs sampling schemes are designed for the purpose of approximations.     

党政机构微博在突发事件中传播效果的影响因素及策略

在分析铁路货运量预测方法的基础上，针对标准BP神经网络的不足，提出改进的BP神经网络预测模型。首先,利用动态陡度因子来改变激励函数的陡峭程度，以此来得到更好的激励函数响应特征以及更好的非线性表达能力；其次，利用附加动量因子，通过对以前经验的积累，既降低了神经网络对误差曲面的局部细节敏感特性，又较好的遏制了神经网络易于限于局部最小的缺陷；最后，采取改变学习率的方法，给定一个较大的学习率初始值，在学习的过程中学习率不断减小，网络最终趋于稳定。改进BP算法既可以得到更优的解，还能够缩短训练时间。利用全国铁路货运     

基于改进模糊聚类算法的灰色预测模型

目前研究的模糊C均值聚类算法(FCM)面临的最重要问题是初始值随机选取,导致其容易陷入局部最优,同时影响运算速度.而灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在形成预测公式时对初始值的选取也没有合理有效的方案.针对以上问题,文章提出坐标密度法,确定初始聚类中心,对FCM算法进行改进;接着提出运用改进的FCM求取GM(1,1)中数据的聚类中心,并把聚类中心作为初始值的方法;通过与已知算法进行比较验证了其可行性和有效性.     

Welfare Programme Participation and the Wellbeing of Non-local Rural Migrants in Metropolitan China: A Social Exclusion Perspective

Social Indicators Research - China has seen an unprecedented increase in rural-to-urban migrants in the last three decades, and the extension of welfare programmes to these migrants has been a...     

“健康中国”背景下全民健身与全民健康融合研究

结合我国实际，从全民健身和全民健康的科学理念、科学研究、人才培养、体医融合、设施建设、产业发展、“互联网+”运用等措施，实现全民健身和全民健康的深度融合，保障政府工作落地生根，促进全民健康。     

学前教育事业发展的公平之维——罗尔斯正义论的视角

学前教育公平是学前教育事业发展的首要价值。由于学前期幼儿身心发展的迅速且不可逆性，一旦错失发展机遇以后不容易补偿，因此学前教育公平对一个人终生的发展具有极端重要性。按照罗尔斯正义论的看法，学前教育事业发展应该首先向弱势群体倾斜，保障处境不利幼儿平等的受教育权。     

生活视域下幼儿角色游戏的实施策略

角色游戏是幼儿时期重要的游戏类型，幼儿在真实的生活中接触角色，在游戏的体验中感知生活，最后在游戏和生活中得以发展。但当前角色游戏在实施中的种种现状，使得幼儿有游戏之“心”、有扮演之“意”，却不得角色游戏之“全部”。对此，教育者需要运用“身边景”，选择“身边事”，联系“身边物”，关注“生活用”，创设以“真”为本的游戏环境，善抓“童心童眼”的游戏事件，提供能够自由创造的游戏材料，总结回归“本源”的游戏经验，让幼儿能在游戏中尽情遨游，在遨游中成长。     

Community care for adults with severe mental disorders in rural China: A case study

In China, family care is the dominant form of care for people with mental disorders. Since 2004, the government has been developing a community‐care model that places more responsibility on community organisations and the local governments at the provincial, municipal and county levels for the provision of formal care. As a large number of people with severe mental disorders live in rural China, this case study was conducted in a rural county in order to examine the development of community care. It was found that, although family care remains dominant, families’ need for formal care is increasing. Community services have improved, but their development is constrained by several contextual and micro factors. In this study, it is argued that the community‐care model introduces a process of reconfiguration of the relative responsibility for care among the family, social organisations and the government, but progress depends on further administrative and fiscal reforms.     

中国英语的语言顺应理据

本文从语言顺应论的视角解读中国英语的存在理据。语言具有变异性、商讨性和顺应性,变异性为中国英语提供了可变选项,商讨性保障了中国英语的选择方式,中国英语是顺应交际需要和交际环境所做的必然选择。