从人才大市迈向人才强市

高层次人才是稀缺资源,一个袁隆平带来了中国杂交稻产业的兴盛,一个比尔·盖茨创建了微软"帝国".人才重在使用,人才用起来是金子,不用变沙子.每个单位都应该认真检查和反省是否有压制和浪费人才的现象.     

国家治理结构转型视域下的大部制改革

改革开放以来,我国政府改革先后经历了"泛政治化"和"去政治化"两个阶段,前者罔顾国情,以西方国家治理体系为典范,后者回避矛盾,追求纯行政范畴的改革,其共同特点都是脱离了政治-行政统一体这一制度情境。目前中国政府改革目前再次走到了需要在政治改革上有所作为的时间节点上,但不是简单回归上世纪80年代的政治改革,而是要以大部制改革为契机,并基于政治-行政统一体这一制度情境去探索国家治理结构的重新建构。     

Time-Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention

We propose an innovative time-varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability. We then measure the TCR as the time-dependent percentage of overlap between these two sets. Several scenarios are presented to illustrate how the proposed measurement identifies the time-varying risk levels, and how the approach can be used as an intuitively understandable tool for collision avoidance.     

Integrating Entropy‐Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net‐water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics‐based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB‐based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image‐based sampling and validation, cell‐by‐cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood‐related environmental hazard studies.     

城镇化与老龄化对经济增长的影响研究

文章基于2000-2013年我国省级面板数据,构建引入城镇化增长与人口就业增长交互项和老龄化增长与人口就业增长交互项的动态面板模型,以全国人均GDP增长率为标准将我国划分为高速增长和中高速增长两类地区,采用SYS-GMM计量方法对人口就业视角下城镇化与老龄化在全国及两类地区对经济增长的影响作用进行实证分析.研究结果表明,对全国层面而言,城镇化通过影响人口就业对经济增长产生正向拉动作用,老龄化则通过影响人口就业对经济增长产生负向阻滞作用;两类地区中,城镇化拉动经济增长的效应在中高速地区更为明显,同时该地区相应的老龄化阻滞经济增长的影响也更为严重,远高于全国地区平均水平,但在高速增长地区老龄化的阻滞作用却并不显著.     

汉代童蒙教育中的儒家因素——以天才儿童形象的探讨为中心

作为天赋异禀的特殊群体,天才儿童早在汉代之前就已经出现;不过真正引起广泛的重视,则是迟至儒教确立的两汉之际才发生的。随着儒家童蒙教育趋于制度化,天才儿童们成为儒家思想的有力宣传者,以孝悌和笃学为中心的儒家品德,构成这些儿童事迹的主要内容,同时也进一步固定为后世的基本评价标准,长期以来儿童们需要依靠这些标准来确定自身的价值与声誉。天才儿童曲折地反映出时代的种种变化,从而构成了现实世界的某种镜像。其中最为引人注目的因素是儒教的影响。在儒教意识形态化的过程中,伴随着家族与社会的濡染,天才儿童成为现实儒家品行的载体。通过分析这些儿童形象的变迁与内涵,有助于更深刻地理解汉代儒家社会中童蒙教育的性质。     

Asymptotic ruin probabilities for proportional investment under interest force with dominatedly-varying-tailed claims

We study the asymptotic behavior of the ruin probabilities in the renewal risk model, in which the insurance company is allowed to invest a constant fraction of its wealth in a stock market which is described by a geometric Brownian motion and the remaining wealth in a bond with nonnegative interest force. We give the expression of the wealth process by the Itô formula, and finally we derive the asymptotic behavior of finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities in the presence of pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent claims with dominant varying tails for this model. In the particular case of compound Poisson model, explicit asymptotic expressions for the ruin probabilities are given with tails of regular variation, where the relation of the infinite-time ruin probability is the same as Gaier and Grandits (2004). For this case, we give some numerical results to assess the qualities of the asymptotic relations.     

Fiscal Decentralization,Satisfaction with Social Services,and Inequality Under the Hukou System

Social Indicators Research - It is generally agreed that decentralized decision-making is conducive to the efficient allocation of resources, but detrimental to the equitable redistribution of...     

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

Many real‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost‐related and the time‐wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.     

Methods improving the estimate of diagnostic odds ratio

Diagnostic odds ratio is defined as the ratio of the odds of the positivity of a diagnostic test results in the diseased population relative to that in the non-diseased population. It is a function of sensitivity and specificity, which can be seen as an indicator of the diagnostic accuracy for the evaluation of a biomarker/test. The naïve estimator of diagnostic odds ratio fails when either sensitivity or specificity is close to one, which leads the denominator of diagnostic odds ratio equal to zero. We propose several methods to adjust for such situation. Agresti and Coull’s adjustment is a common and straightforward way for extreme binomial proportions. Alternatively, estimation methods based on a more advanced sampling design can be applied, which systematically selects samples from underlying population based on judgment ranks. Under such design, the odds can be estimated by the sum of indicator functions and thus avoid the situation of dividing by zero and provide a valid estimation. The asymptotic mean and variance of the proposed estimators are derived. All methods are readily applied for the confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for diagnostic odds ratio. A simulation study is conducted to compare the efficiency of the proposed methods. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated using a real dataset.