青岛一套表的实践与经验

 企业统计一套表一直是统计制度方法改革和实践中的焦点问题。本文通过对青岛市统计局企业一套表制度实施情况的案例分析,系统界定了企业一套表的概念和内涵,全面展现了企业一套表的运作过程,客观分析了制约企业一套表实施的主要原因,并提出了在现阶段实施企业统计一套表的条件和要求。     

Bayesian model comparison for compartmental models with applications in positron emission tomography

We develop strategies for Bayesian modelling as well as model comparison, averaging and selection for compartmental models with particular emphasis on those that occur in the analysis of positron emission tomography (PET) data. Both modelling and computational issues are considered. Biophysically inspired informative priors are developed for the problem at hand, and by comparison with default vague priors it is shown that the proposed modelling is not overly sensitive to prior specification. It is also shown that an additive normal error structure does not describe measured PET data well, despite being very widely used, and that within a simple Bayesian framework simultaneous parameter estimation and model comparison can be performed with a more general noise model. The proposed approach is compared with standard techniques using both simulated and real data. In addition to good, robust estimation performance, the proposed technique provides, automatically, a characterisation of the uncertainty in the resulting estimates which can be considerable in applications such as PET.     

Further results for parallel systems with two heterogeneous exponential components

In this paper, we investigate ordering properties of lifetimes of parallel systems with two independent heterogeneous exponential components with respect to likelihood ratio and hazard rate orders. Two sufficient conditions are provided for likelihood ratio and hazard rate orders to hold between the lifetimes of two parallel systems, respectively. Moreover, we extend the results from exponential case to the proportional hazard rate models. The results established here strength some of the results known in the literature. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results derived here as well.     

Composite quantile regression for varying-coefficient single-index models

ABSTRACT

The varying-coefficient single-index model (VCSIM) is a very general and flexible tool for exploring the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictors. Popular special cases include single-index models and varying-coefficient models. In order to estimate the index-coefficient and the non parametric varying-coefficients in the VCSIM, we propose a two-stage composite quantile regression estimation procedure, which integrates the local linear smoothing method and the information of quantile regressions at a number of conditional quantiles of the response variable. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators for the index-coefficient and varying-coefficients when the error is heterogeneous. When compared with the existing mean-regression-based estimation method, our simulation results indicate that our proposed method has comparable performance for normal error and is more robust for error with outliers or heavy tail. We illustrate our methodologies with a real example.     

On Redundancy Allocation to Series and Parallel Systems of Two Components

Abstract

For two components and one standby redundancy, we develop a characterization on the hazard rate order and the reversed hazard rate order of the redundant system lifetime in the context of mutually independent components lifetimes. Also, the likelihood ratio order is derived on the lifetime of the series system with two components lifetimes and two matched active redundancies lifetimes both following the proportional hazard model.     

An Inverse-Probability-Weighted Approach to the Estimation of Successive Duration Times under Left-Truncation and Right-Censoring

In incident cohort studies, survival data often include subjects who have had an initiate event at recruitment and may potentially experience two successive events (first and second) during the follow-up period. Since the second duration process becomes observable only if the first event has occurred, left-truncation and dependent censoring arise if the two duration times are correlated. To confront the two potential sampling biases, Chang and Tzeng (2006 Chang , S.-H. , Tzeng , S.-J. (2006). Noparametric estimation of sojourn time distributions for truncated serial event data- a weight-adjusted approach. Lifetime Data Anal. 53–67.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) provided an inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) approach for estimating the joint probability function of successive duration times. In this note, an alternative IPW approach is proposed. A simulation study is conducted to compare the two IPW approaches.     

归途的迷航——试从声音的对峙窥视《格萨尔王传》和《荷马史诗》的永恒回归

在《荷马史诗》和《格萨尔王传》中,都有两重声音对峙交织在整个文本里,有创作者和人物的对话,人物与人物之间的碰撞对话,也有人物自身的矛盾对话,正是这些对话推进了故事的发展,把最终的态势引向了寻求史诗的共同模式:经历一番艰难抉择,尝试无数痛苦的征程,最终实现心灵或现实生活的"回归"。     

青藏高原多民族聚居区民族交往的调查研究——以青海省化隆县为例

化隆地区多元民族类型和多种宗教信仰决定了当地民族关系的历史复杂性;当地的多民族杂居特点是我国青藏高原地区民族杂居形态的一个缩影,将化隆县作为一个多民族聚居区民族交往的调查研究个案,有助于我们比较准确地把握青藏地区民族交往的特点与规律.     

《说文解字》所收“苋”、“蓼”疏解

《说文解字》所收“苋”得名取义于其茎叶高大而易被看见.唐代文学作品中已较多地出现对苋的吟咏.宋元以后,苋之品种渐增.“苋菜”中“人苋”即今所谓的“籽粒苋”,在我国有悠久的栽培、食用史,以为籽粒苋原产于美国之说并不妥当.将“人苋菜”写作“人蔊菜”、“人旱菜”等是因不辨古音选错本字而产生的误会.《说文》中的“蓼”当指泽蓼而不是水蓼.“蓼”得名于其味辛辣,“蓼”、“熮”、“燎”、“爒”音近义通,当同源.蓼的别名“蔷虞”当表示采获山泽的菜草,这一别称蕴含了蓼的生长环境特点.     

基于顾客感知价值认知差距模型的顾客教育研究

在消费过程中,由于顾客相关信息的欠缺和消费理性的不完全,顾客对企业提供价值的感知会存在四种"价值认知差距",即企业价值主张与顾客价值期望之间的差距、企业传递的价值与顾客感知的过程价值之间的差距、企业提供价值与顾客感知的结果价值之间的差距、企业实现价值与顾客价值评价之间的差距。为了促进顾客感知价值的有效传递,缩小供需双方的认知差距,本文研究了企业如何从顾客期望管理、过程管理、自我服务技术和整合教育渠道等四个方面实施顾客教育。