Age Cohort, Ancestry, and Immigrant Generation Influences in Family Relations and Psychological Well-Being among Black Caribbean Family Members

Immigration is contributing to the U.S. population becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. This article examines the role of family relations and well-being among different generations of Black Caribbean immigrants. Family disruptions, such as migration, can have complex effects on the support networks and emotional well-being of family members. Data from a recently completed national study of American Blacks in the United States, however, reveal significant similarities across ancestry and immigrant status in family contact, solidarity and well-being. It is concluded that intrafamilial relations may serve to overcome barriers of geographical distance in providing comparable levels of contact, solidarity, and well-being for both U.S.-born and immigrant Black Caribbean family members of different generations. Because of the increasing numbers of immigrant elders, these sources of family support will become increasingly more important in bridging the gaps between government resources and needed assistance in an aging society.     

Distal and Proximal Factors in Domestic Violence: A Test of an Integrated Model

We employed 4,095 couples from both waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) to test a model of couple violence drawn from several theoretical perspectives. The outcome distinguishes among nonviolent couples and those experiencing either physical aggression or intense male violence. According to the model, background characteristics of couples are related to relationship stressors, which affect the risk of violence via their tendency to promote verbal conflict. Considerable support for the model was found. Couples were at higher risk for one or both forms of violence if they were younger at union inception, had been together for less time, were both in their first union, had only one partner who was employed, had a nontraditional woman paired with a traditional man, had at least one partner who abused substances, had more children, had more frequent disagreements, exhibited a more hostile disagreement style, or lived in an economically disadvantaged neighborhood. Moreover, the effects of stressors such as the number of children and couples' employment status disparities appear to be mediated by disagreement frequency and disagreement style.     

Data skeletons: simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive streaming datasets with applications to density estimation

We consider the problem of density estimation when the data is in the form of a continuous stream with no fixed length. In this setting, implementations of the usual methods of density estimation such as kernel density estimation are problematic. We propose a method of density estimation for massive datasets that is based upon taking the derivative of a smooth curve that has been fit through a set of quantile estimates. To achieve this, a low-storage, single-pass, sequential method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles for massive datasets that form the basis of this method of density estimation. For comparison, we also consider a sequential kernel density estimator. The proposed methods are shown through simulation study to perform well and to have several distinct advantages over existing methods.     

Issues in applying recent CPMP ‘Points to Consider’ and FDA guidance documents with biostatistical implications

The International Conference on Harmonisation guideline ‘Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials’ was adopted by the Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products (CPMP) in March 1998, and consequently is operational in Europe. Since then more detailed guidance on selected topics has been issued by the CPMP in the form of ‘Points to Consider’ documents. The intent of these was to give guidance particularly to non‐statistical reviewers within regulatory authorities, although of course they also provide a good source of information for pharmaceutical industry statisticians. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration has recently issued a draft guideline on data monitoring committees. In November 2002 a one‐day discussion forum was held in London by Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI). The aim of the meeting was to discuss how statisticians were responding to some of the issues covered in these new guidelines, and to document consensus views where they existed. The forum was attended by industry, academic and regulatory statisticians. This paper outlines the questions raised, resulting discussions and consensus views reached. It is clear from the guidelines and discussions at the workshop that the statistical analysis strategy must be planned during the design phase of a clinical trial and carefully documented. Once the study is complete the analysis strategy should be thoughtfully executed and the findings reported. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictive Bayesian Microbial Dose-Response Assessment Based on Suggested Self-Organization in Primary Illness Response: Cryptosporidium parvum

The probability of illness caused by very low doses of pathogens cannot generally be tested due to the numbers of subjects that would be needed, though such assessments of illness dose response are needed to evaluate drinking water standards. A predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment method was proposed previously to assess the unconditional probability of illness from available information and avoid the inconsistencies of confidence-based approaches. However, the method uses knowledge of the conditional dose-response form, and this form is not well established for the illness endpoint. A conditional parametric dose-response function for gastroenteric illness is proposed here based on simple numerical models of self-organized host-pathogen systems and probabilistic arguments. In the models, illnesses terminate when the host evolves by processes of natural selection to a self-organized critical value of wellness. A generalized beta-Poisson illness dose-response form emerges for the population as a whole. Use of this form is demonstrated in a predictive Bayesian dose-response assessment for cryptosporidiosis. Results suggest that a maximum allowable dose of 5.0 x 10(-7) oocysts/exposure (e.g., 2.5 x 10(-7) oocysts/L water) would correspond with the original goals of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Surface Water Treatment Rule, considering only primary illnesses resulting from Poisson-distributed pathogen counts. This estimate should be revised to account for non-Poisson distributions of Cryptosporidium parvum in drinking water and total response, considering secondary illness propagation in the population.     

African Americans and municipal employment: A test of two perspectives

A survey of the extant literature addressing the factors that drive African American municipal employment offers two broad types of explanations: (1) Black political power and (2) institutional. A comparative assessment of the performance of each of these explanations fills a gap in the literature by illuminating the differences of these distinct perspectives when it comes to employment of Blacks in the public sector. Focusing on six Florida cities from 1960 to 2000, this study tests the predictive power of each of these explanations comparatively for four city departments. The findings indicate that the Black political power explanation performs better than the institutional explanation as a predictor of Black employment.     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

A Tabu Search Heuristic for the Location of Multi-Type Protection Devices on Electrical Supply Tree Networks

The problem of determining the number of multi-type protection devices and their locations on electrical supply tree networks with subtree dependency is investigated. The aim is to reduce the amount of inconvenience caused to customers that are affected by any given fault on the networks. An appropriate implementation of tabu search is proposed. We exploit a variable neighborhood and a soft aspiration level, and we embed a data structure and reduction tests into the search to speed up the process. Computational tests are performed on randomly generated electrical tree networks varying in size and branch complexity with encouraging results.