Why some theories fail to describe, explain, and predict: Reconstructing the future

Thomas Kuhn, as a physicist, persuasively discussed theory construction and change as well as pointed out the existence of paradigm shifts. But, constrained by human being's way of perceiving reality and thinking, though scholars and experts can construct theory so as to understand human interactions, they will sooner or later realize that theory often fails to perform satisfactorily. What is the nature or substance of this world and how would the world develop in the future? This article is written from the philosophical and cultural perspectives and suggests a new way of reconstructing the future. By taking human behavior, language, science, philosophy, mathematics, and logic into consideration, the author argues that in this way we would be able to enter into a new world of analyzing phenomena.     

Treatment effect measures under nonproportional hazards

In a clinical trial with a time-to-event endpoint the treatment effect can be measured in various ways. Under proportional hazards all reasonable measures (such as the hazard ratio and the difference in restricted mean survival time) are consistent in the following sense: Take any control group survival distribution such that the hazard rate remains above zero; if there is no benefit by any measure there is no benefit by all measures, and as the magnitude of treatment benefit increases by any measure it increases by all measures. Under nonproportional hazards, however, survival curves can cross, and the direction of the effect for any pair of measures can be inconsistent. In this paper we critically evaluate a variety of treatment effect measures in common use and identify flaws with them. In particular, we demonstrate that a treatment's benefit has two distinct and independent dimensions which can be measured by the difference in the survival rate at the end of follow-up and the difference in restricted mean survival time, and that commonly used measures do not adequately capture both dimensions. We demonstrate that a generalized hazard difference, which can be estimated by the difference in exposure-adjusted subject incidence rates, captures both dimensions, and that its inverse, the number of patient-years of follow-up that results in one fewer event (the NYNT), is an easily interpretable measure of the magnitude of clinical benefit.     

Quantification of follow-up time in oncology clinical trials with a time-to-event endpoint: Asking the right questions

For the analysis of a time-to-event endpoint in a single-arm or randomized clinical trial it is generally perceived that interpretation of a given estimate of the survival function, or the comparison between two groups, hinges on some quantification of the amount of follow-up. Typically, a median of some loosely defined quantity is reported. However, whatever median is reported, is typically not answering the question(s) trialists actually have in terms of follow-up quantification. In this paper, inspired by the estimand framework, we formulate a comprehensive list of relevant scientific questions that trialists have when reporting time-to-event data. We illustrate how these questions should be answered, and that reference to an unclearly defined follow-up quantity is not needed at all. In drug development, key decisions are made based on randomized controlled trials, and we therefore also discuss relevant scientific questions not only when looking at a time-to-event endpoint in one group, but also for comparisons. We find that different thinking about some of the relevant scientific questions around follow-up is required depending on whether a proportional hazards assumption can be made or other patterns of survival functions are anticipated, for example, delayed separation, crossing survival functions, or the potential for cure. We conclude the paper with practical recommendations.     

对口援建与羌族文化重建——以山东援建北川为例

羌族地区的灾后文化重建是在国家的统筹下,在受灾地区民众的诉求基础上,在社会各界呼吁保护羌族传统文化的舆论中,通过援建省市的具体实施而实现的。作为援建方的山东,一方面根据国家的相关意见、条例、方案的文化保护、文化重建规定进行援建;另一方面,他们又根据自身对羌族文化的认识和理解以及当时、当地的实际情况,进行了文化的援建与重建工作。在承认羌族地区文化重建取得巨大成就的同时,还应当看到文化重建中政府意志与学者呼声的疏离,援建后的北川羌族传统文化呈现出同质化、一体化、文化符号泛化等问题。     

工人非稳定性意向研究

本文介绍了工人非稳定性意向的五种指数,通过对经济学指数、发生学指数、政治学指数、社会学指数和心理学指数的类别分析和统计原则得出了工人非稳定性意向的临界区间,对政府和工会把握工人行动具有现实意义。     

A Bayesian-loss function-based method in assessing loss caused by ship-source oil spills in the arctic area

It is difficult to assess the risk of ship-source oil spills in Arctic waters for insurance purposes due to many unknowns and the lack of reliable data. However, maritime activities in the Arctic area continue to grow, indicating the urgent needs for the development of innovative methods to estimate loss from potential ship-source oil spills in the Arctic area. To fill this gap, we develop a hybrid Bayesian-loss function-based method to assess ship-source oil spill-related loss and implement an illustrative test on Baffin Island, Nunavut in Canada. The results confirm that our method can accurately assess loss and, subsequently, develop reliable insurance premiums for shipping activities in the Arctic area. This enables governmental and nongovernmental organizations alike to use the method as a reliable loss estimation mechanism for ship-source oil spills. Also, it is a valuable tool in designing measures for safer and more resilient Arctic shipping.     

略论当代知识分子的历史使命和人生追求

中国共产党成立以后,当代知识分子聚集在中国共产党的旗帜下,把自己的人生追求融入中国社会主义革命和建设事业之中,成为完成党的事业的重要力量。实践证明,当代知识分子只有集合在中国共产党的旗帜下,努力践行"三个代表"重要思想,才能完成自己的历史使命,实现崇高的人生追求。     

王国维“意境”新义源出西学“格义”考

王国维意境新义的理论来源一直是困扰学界的重要问题。以往的研究由于无法明晰作为中国传统固有诗学名词的意境如何与西学发生了直接的联系,因而难以得出令人信服的结论。通过对晚清文献使用意境一词的考察,可见出意境在晚清还存在另外一种使用形态——对西学的格义。这种格义使意境与西学发生了意义上的互渗,从而成为意境意义古今转换的原动力。王国维创造性地将这种经过意义转换后的意境运用到中国的文学批评实践中去,使意境的新义得以确立。王国维这一批评实践虽然使意境重生于现代文论话语之中,但也因此给后人造成了理解上的混乱。     

江南学术文化的历史逻辑

在地域文化中,江南文化无疑是独树一帜的。由于经济地理等方面的原因,江南文化是以质有而趣灵的诗性存在方式、以自然为中心的诗性观念进入中国人的精神版图的,江南学人也以自然通达、博学清言的形象有别于北方学者。在其后的发展过程中,由于江南地区长期处于政治化外,学术主体强烈的批判个性、学术题材的多元化发展,逐渐成为江南学术话语的重要特征。由于诗性智慧的非对象化的特点,江南学术文化思想的内核是不消言说、只能静观的,这集中体现在其后的自然天道、玄学、南禅、心学、诗学等江南思想资源中;由于诗性智慧的整体思维的特点,江南学术文化思想与日常人生总是紧密结合在一起的,表现的是在日常生活中完成人生的升华;由于江南学术文化自身组成结构的松散,有利于兼收并蓄其他文明成果,为此呈现出日渐繁盛的发展态势。江南学术文化有着内在的发展逻辑,其中自然诗性、善于怀疑发见、兼收并蓄的学术传统与精神是一以贯之的。它与注重人伦秩序、代表着黄河流域的诸夏文化一起,以南北文化并立交融的姿态共同构成了中国传统文化的主体。     

后羿、寒浞神话传说的历史钩沉

由于羿的名字有夷羿、仁羿、穷羿、后羿之别,其活动时间从五帝时代晚期直到夏代中期,长达数百年,而其行事更是善恶不分,忠奸并容。因为这样的原因,学术史上往往将羿分为几个形象来理解,并认同某些古文献所持态度,把羿当作反面人物来对待。实际上这些都是误解。认识后羿及寒浞的神话传说,至少应该把握三点事实:(一)无论是神性的羿还是人性的羿,无论是族名羿、地名羿、图腾羿,还是酋长羿,实际都是同一个羿在不同历史阶段不同场合的不同表现而已;(二)就有关文献和考古资料可知,以后羿、寒浞为代表的东夷集团曾在中华文明起源及早期发展过程中创造过最先进的文化,东夷民族在当时众多民族部落中是一支实力最强大、影响最深远的民族;(三)战国秦汉文献中,对后羿、寒浞历史形象的批评否定,实际上是在中原文化中心论、夷夏之辨观念影响下,对东夷民族不公正态度的表现。