IMPLICATION ANALYSIS: A PRAGMATIC PROPOSAL FOR LINKING THEORY AND DATA IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

Sociology and other social sciences struggle to emulate a model of scientific evidence that is often inappropriate. Not only do social researchers encounter special limits, but they are also handicapped by a distorted and idealized picture of practices in the "hard sciences." Ironically, while often obliged to use data of lower quality, sociology employs standards for evaluating a theory that are not attained in the hard sciences. After a brief review of these obstacles, we describe a set of procedures for using empirical data to rigorously evaluate theories and hypotheses without resorting to the mimicking of hard science. The interaction between theory and evidence normally involves deriving implications from the theory (usually referred to as hypotheses) and then ascertaining how closely the empirical evidence meets these implications. The appropriateness of the implications is a key factor in the entire operation, linking as they do the data and the theory. The evaluation of a theory is no better than the theory's implications (as generated by the investigator) coupled with the quality and appropriateness of the evidence. It is our impression, however, that because this step is insufficiently addressed, there are unnecessary problems in the evaluation of theories. We use the term "Implication Analysis" to describe our efforts to review and improve current procedures.     

Method in the Madness: The Strategic Uses of Absurdity and the Unexpected in Psychotherapy

This article explores some of the uses of absurdity and the unexpected in psychotherapy. Case examples are used to ground the discussion of some key ideas that inform an understanding of how absurdity and the unexpected might serve as catalysts or primers for change in the psychotherapeutic context. Erickson's confusion technique and some ideas derived from Bateson's understanding of cybernetics also serve an explanatory purpose.     

Assessment of Cigarette Smoking and Smoking Susceptibility among Youth: Telephone Computer-Assisted Self-Interviews versus Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews

This experimental study assesses the effect of two survey methods,telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI)and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), on self-reportsof smoking behavior and smoking susceptibility among adolescents12–17 years of age in California. In T-ACASI, participantslisten to prerecorded, computer-controlled questions and respondby pressing the keypad on a touch-tone telephone. In CATI, interviewersadminister the questions and enter responses into a computer.Prior research suggests that youth may be more likely to reportsensitive behaviors in a self-administered survey like T-ACASIcompared to an interviewer-administered survey like CATI, dueto greater perceived confidentiality. Logistic regression analyseswere conducted on unweighted data, controlling for demographicdifferences. Adjusted estimates of current smoking (past 30days) were significantly greater in T-ACASI (8.3 percent) thanCATI (4.5 percent). Smoking susceptibility (i.e., lack of afirm commitment not to smoke among those who have never smoked)was also greater in T-ACASI (45.0 percent) than CATI (34.9 percent).In both surveys, social desirability response bias was negativelyassociated with smoking, which suggests that response bias wasproblematic for both modes. Many respondents reported that aparent was present during the interview (59.4 percent in CATI;42.0 percent in T-ACASI). In both surveys, parental presencewas negatively associated with smoking, which suggests thatthis factor could also contribute to underreporting. Applicationof sample weights to the data eliminated the survey mode effects;however, the CATI current smoking estimate (9.3 percent) fromthis study was significantly less than an estimate (14.2 percent)obtained from a self-administered, school-based survey conductedthe same year on California adolescents.     

Quality Provision with Heterogeneous Consumer Reservation Utilities

This study examines a firm's quality and price decisions when consumers differ not only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality but also in their reservation utility for the basic product. We find that while the firm offers lower‐quality products when consumers' valuations for quality deteriorate, the optimal quality may increase with a negative shift in consumers' reservation utilities. We also investigate the optimal price and quality of the products within a vertically differentiated product line when the number of products is exogenously given. The existing literature shows that when consumers differ only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality, the firm sets the efficient quality for consumers with the highest valuation for quality, whereas the concern for cannibalization pushes down the quality of inferior products. We find that when consumers are heterogeneous in both their reservation utility and valuation for quality, the concern for cannibalization may distort the quality upwards, even for consumers with the highest willingness‐to‐pay for quality. In addition, a low‐quality product may enjoy a higher profit margin than a high‐quality product within the product line.     

East European assimilation and (re)integration: the interwar legacies of transatlantic migration and “Russian” Orthodox conversion (1918–1939)

In the 1920s and 30s, mass conversion movements to “Russian” Orthodoxy emerged among Greek Catholics in Czechoslovakia and Poland, comprising a new chapter in a continuing saga of conversion which began in the late nineteenth century, in what was then Austria–Hungary. Pre-1914 conversion movements arose in large part due to transatlantic migration – especially return migration – between Austria–Hungary and the Americas. Americanists have generally treated the 1920s and 30s as the era when transnational migration’s impact waned owing to US immigration restrictions, while East Europeanists have minimized or ignored the impact of transnational migration upon East European regions. Interwar Catholic-to-Orthodox conversions, however, are not merely attributable to historical legacy: transatlantic migration continued to influence the dynamics of conversion as an active, contemporary force. As had been true prior to World War I, returning migrants and their families comprised the most significant constituency of the movements after the war; migrants remaining in the Americas supported the East European movements with economic and social remittances, and activists on either side of the Orthodox/Catholic divide treated the conversions as transnational phenomena. This essay analyzes the impact of transnational migration upon shifting ethnoreligious identifications, in the context of shifting social, national, and geopolitical circumstances, 1918–1939.     

The Gamma Distribution as a Mixture of Exponential Distributions

A gamma distribution with arbitrary scale parameter θ and shape parameter r < 1 can be represented as a scale mixture of exponential distributions.     

Student units for practice teaching in group care

In this paper, an attempt is made to summarize the British position with regard to the use of student units in social work education. The strengths and limitations associated with student units are evaluated with respect to a practice curriculum for people intending to work in the group care field (institutional care, residential group living and day services). Finally, four different models of student unit are identified in such a way as to show how supervised experience could be organised to improve training for group care practice.     

Computational and statistical efficiency of semiparametric gls estimators

In this note, we report a dramatic improvement in the computational efficiency of semiparametric generalized least squares(SGLS) estimation. Computation of SGLS estimates no longer presents serious problems with data sets of moderate size. We also correct a numerical error in the standard errors of the SGLS estimates reported in our recent paper in this journal (Horowitz and Neumann, 1987). The corrected standard errors of SGLS are comparable to those we reported for quantile estimates.