BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE DIVISION OF PERMANENT AND TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT

In the mainstream real business cycle (RBC) model, labor can be viewed as temporary employment since the firm's demand for labor behaves directly in response to stochastic productivity shocks in each period. This paper provides a tractable way of analyzing fluctuations in permanent and temporary employment over the business cycle, as well as the underlying driving forces. This inclusion of heterogeneity helps reconcile the RBC model with the U.S. data given that temporary employees in general only account for a small proportion of total private‐sector employment (about 2%–3%). We draw an explicit division between permanent and temporary employment and resort to this separation to account for stylized facts that characterize a two‐tier labor market. In particular, with regard to the U.S. labor market, our benchmark model can well explain the motivating facts: (1) temporary employment is much more volatile than permanent employment, (2) the share of temporary employment (the ratio of temporary to aggregate employment) exhibits strong pro‐cyclicality, (3) permanent employment lags by two quarters on average, and (4) the correlation between temporary employment and output is stronger than that involving the permanent counterpart. The quantitative analysis suggests that our proposed channels explain the main facts well and the model further provides plausible reasoning for a firm's labor hoarding. (JEL E24, E32)     

关于文化经济的几个基本理论问题的探讨

文化经济作为新世纪的时代命题和战略构想,反映了未来发展的新趋势和新动向。它以精神生产、文化产业和文化产品为核心概念,具有创新性、可持续性、非物质性、成本特殊性和文化、经济属性。发展文化经济是对建设中国特色社会主义规律性认识的深化,对调整产业结构,拉动经济增长,促进文化繁荣具有十分重要的意义和价值。     

Advancing national human resource development research: suggestions for multilevel investigations

National human resource development (NHRD) is now an important area of investigation within human resource development with significant growth in publications over 49 years. Scholars have, however, highlighted the need for multilevel approaches to NHRD. We reviewed 192 papers to identify gaps on multilevel theorizing, and we propose a multilevel framework incorporating macro, meso, and micro levels of analysis. We develop principles and guidelines around WHAT, HOW, WHERE, WHEN, and WHY questions to promote multilevel NHRD research. Finally, we discuss research and methodological implications of our review.     

日本食品供应链管理模式的经验借鉴

日本食品供应链管理的重点放在发展食品安全追踪方面;而海外进口食品的安全,则主要依靠严格的进口检验检疫制度和综合商社通过供应链管理来控制。日本以农协体系为基础、以农产品流通模式和食品安全管理模式为特征的食品供应链管理模式,符合中国食品供应链管理的发展条件,对中国食品安全管理具有很强的借鉴意义。     

Modeling lactation curves: classical parametric models re-examined and modified

A large number of methods for modeling lactation curves have been proposed – parametric and nonparametric, mathematically or biologically oriented. The most popular of these are methods that express the milk yield in terms of time via a parametric nonlinear functional equation. This is intuitive and allows for relatively easy mathematical and biological interpretations of the parameters involved. Interestingly, as far as we are aware, all such models generate nonzero milk yields on the whole positive time half-line, even though real lactation curves always have finite range, with spans of approximately 300 days for dairy cows. For this reason, we re-examine a number of existing parametric models, and modify them to produce finite-range lactation curves that fit remarkably well to data of milk yields from New Zealand cows. The use of daily or weekly yields rather than the monthly yields normally considered reveals considerable variation that is usually suppressed. Both individual and herd lactation curves are examined in the present paper, and median-based procedures explored as alternatives to the usual average-based methods. These suggestions offer further insights into the existing literature on modeling lactation curves.     

广告媒介简说

通过对媒介的历时状态的考察,认为媒介从它结合的对象可以分为负载、传播人类认识内容的媒介与负载、传播信息符号的媒介两种;从它的形成与利用情况可以分为二个阶段,十种形式.两个阶段为:规约阶段的媒介与取用阶段的媒介.十种形式为:规约的单一材质媒介、规约的复合材质媒介、规约的复合型映射材质媒介;自控的单一材质媒介、自控的复合材质媒介、自控的复合型映射材质媒介、他控的复合型映射材质媒、他控的复合材质媒介、他控的交叉型复合映射材质媒介、半控的交叉型复合映射材质媒介等.并且在麦克鲁汉"一种传播媒介的内容经常是另外一种传播媒介"的基础上提出"一种传播媒介的形式,可以是另外一种传播媒介",并以此为基础考察了广告媒介的复杂状态,指出媒介不仅仅是中介性的物质实体,也可以是依赖于一定物质实体的事件过程,或者是依赖于一定物质实体的结构状态,甚至是原型.最后对广告媒介的内容与形式的协调进行了初步的考察.     

海西主体功能区人口与产业集聚战略的研究

基于2004年规模以上工业企业时点数据,使用区位商对福建省整体及其内部九大地市的工业产业部门进行衡量和比较,使用人口重心对福建省人口的分布和移动路径以及影响因素进行分析.以期海西能够在新一轮的发展中脱颖而出,成为我国经济发展新的"增长极".     

农村宅基地置换问题探讨——以义乌、松阳为例

十七届三中全会以来,农村土地问题越来越受关注,农村宅基地置换就是其中之一.农村宅基地置换具有强烈的现实需求和一定的制度基础,能产生经济当事人在现行宅基地制度安排下无法获得的外部利润.实践证明, 农村宅基地置换破解了农民建房难题,促进了农村人口集聚,扩大了农村消费需求,推进了农村土地节约集约利用;同时也存在村庄建设资金筹措比较困难、建设用地跨村流转缺乏依据、解决历史遗留问题难度较大等问题.应加强宅基地置换的谋划工作、多渠道筹集建设资金和创新农村土地管理制度.     

明代道教文学研究的几个问题

明代道教文学的发展表现出与前代不同的特点,道教徒的文学创作相对趋于衰落,教外士人创作的表现道教主题的戏曲、小说等作品数量迅速增加。如何处理道教徒创作与非道教徒的道教文学创作在明代道教文学演变的整体格局中的关系,是明代道教文学史写作的关键。本文着眼于对象与人物、文献与文本、方法与评价等三个方面,就明代道教文学研究中存在的问题提出若干思考。     

赖世璜与李烈钧研究

赖世璜曾经两次追随并背叛了李烈钧：第一次在1911年10月到1922年8月;第二次在1923年2月至7月。赖世璜与李烈钧的关系极大地影响了其政治命运。