Assessing goodness-of-fit for evaluation of dose-proportionality

For the clinical development of a new drug, the determination of dose-proportionality is an essential part of the pharmacokinetic evaluations, which may provide early indications of non-linear pharmacokinetics and may help to identify sub-populations with divergent clearances. Prior to making any conclusions regarding dose-proportionality, the goodness-of-fit of the model must be assessed to evaluate the model performance. We propose the use of simulation-based visual predictive checks to improve the validity of dose-proportionality conclusions for complex designs. We provide an illustrative example and include a table to facilitate review by regulatory authorities.     

低生育水平下中国人口规模与年龄结构的变化

本文借助一些机构对21世纪中叶中国人口变化的预测 ,就未来50年低生育水平对中国人口规模和年龄结构的影响进行了初步的分析     

Practical statistical considerations for investigating anti-tumor treatments in mice

Anti-tumor treatment outcomes in mouse experiments can be challenging to interpret and communicate accurately. In reporting these experiments, rigorous statistical considerations are commonly absent, although statistical applications have been proposed. We investigated the practicality and utility of different statistical strategies for the analysis of anti-tumor responses in a longitudinal mouse case study. Each analysis that we performed had different endpoints, investigated different questions, and was based on different assumptions. We found rudimentary visual and risk analysis insufficient without additional considerations, and upon further investigation we found improvements in key anti-tumor parameter estimates associated with a drug combination in our case study. We offer practical statistical considerations for investigating anti-cancer treatments in mice, applying a multi-tier statistical approach.     

Mean-Minimum Exact Confidence Intervals

This article introduces mean-minimum (MM) exact confidence intervals for a binomial probability. These intervals guarantee that both the mean and the minimum frequentist coverage never drop below specified values. For example, an MM 95[93]% interval has mean coverage at least 95% and minimum coverage at least 93%. In the conventional sense, such an interval can be viewed as an exact 93% interval that has mean coverage at least 95% or it can be viewed as an approximate 95% interval that has minimum coverage at least 93%. Graphical and numerical summaries of coverage and expected length suggest that the Blaker-based MM exact interval is an attractive alternative to, even an improvement over, commonly recommended approximate and exact intervals, including the Agresti–Coull approximate interval, the Clopper–Pearson (CP) exact interval, and the more recently recommended CP-, Blaker-, and Sterne-based mean-coverage-adjusted approximate intervals.     

销售成本信息不对称下供应商风险规避的回购契约

在价格随机条件下,销售成本信息不对称且供应商规避风险时,本文探讨回购契约协调供应链的最优决策。在前提假设的基础上构建新的回购契约模型,求解并用算例进行仿真验证,考虑信息不对称与风险规避共同发生耦合作用后对供应链相关决策变量的影响。研究结果表明：在价格随机条件下,不管信息是否对称,只要供应商有风险规避意识,供应链相关决策变量均发生分岔突变;不管市场价格是否随机,也不管供应商是否风险规避,只要零售商隐瞒私人销售成本信息,就会给自己带来额外的收益,但会给供应商与整个供应链带来损害;供应链上的信息越不对称,在分岔突变区域,相关决策变量的振荡幅度越大。分岔突变现象是市场价格随机和供应商风险规避耦合作用后特有的现象;零售商能够利用信息不对称给自己带来额外的好处,但会损害供应商和供应链的利益;供应商防范零售商这种损人利己行为的最好对策,就是通过设计一种合作机制,以最低成本的方式来促使零售商将销售成本信息公开化;另外,供应商以平稳的心态(风险中性)应对外部风险,更有利于提高其自身决策的水平。     

因病信教农民的宗教心理及其演变:试论把握“信念”概念对理解中国农村宗教实践的启示

本文通过对苏北望村基督徒因病信教现象的考察,关注信教农民的宗教心理及其演变。用"信念"来把握农民"信"的起点心理,它蕴含了个体面临生命困境时寻求宗教帮助并对之赋以期许的自然心态和家庭伦理。"信念"的宗教建构、"信念"的情感嵌入以及"信仰"要求三个宗教操演环节促使个体心理的由俗入圣。基于原有病型及其疗效基础上的个体与宗教间的互动,信徒发生了信念坍塌、信念过渡和信仰升级三种类型的心理分化。"信念"操演与分化构成了农民宗教心理演变的机理,也形塑了农民的信仰方式。文章进一步探讨"信念"对于理解中国农村宗教实践中的个体宗教心理、宗教皈信、宗教复兴等议题所具有的启发。     

Preventing short-term strain through time-management coping

This project investigated the effectiveness of time-management coping in preventing strain resulting from role overload. Structural regressions, a form of causal-correlational analysis, were used on repeated-measures questionnaire data from 96 working adults attending evening degree classes in business administration. Results showed that time-management techniques significantly lowered anxiety, but not depression or somatic symptoms. In addition, the effect of coping on anxiety remained significant when social desirability was controlled. Anxiety did not influence subsequent coping, and no significant moderator effects were found.     

Sparks and Ashes

The conditions for liberal democracy – by any operational definition of that concept – include some minimum level of knowledge. We can assume everybody knows something about local matters. But total ignorance of non-local matters must make people incompetent to deliberate about those issues. If a majority of citizens know nothing about such problems, are they ready for non-local democracy? This question has been raised by scholars with reference to the pace of democracy in developing countries. But it is equally relevant for some developed countries where widespread ignorance is demonstrable. Some theorists argue that ‘democratic ignorance’ is not harmful because electoral democracies are actually run by well-informed elites. The problem with this model of elite politics is that ignorant citizens vote (even if their voting rate is lower),1 For an estimate of the relation between political knowledge and voting in the US, see Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters, New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1996, p. 227. View all notes and are sampled in political polls. Elections and polls are used to legitimize both policies and rule by particular elites. Ignorance, therefore, has consequences. There is no democratic society where a majority of the electorate are completely ignorant about non-local matters. But large proportions of the population in some countries are uninformed to the point of ignorance. What is the minimum level of non-local knowledge which should be the goal of a democratic society? This abstract question has implications for education, for political citizenship, and for the evolution of democratic politics in developing and developed countries.