Noninformative priors for the common mean in the bivariate normal distribution

In this paper, we consider some noninformative priors for the common mean in a bivariate normal population. We develop the first-order and second-order matching priors and reference priors. We find that the second-order matching prior is also an HPD matching prior, and matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. It turns out that derived reference priors do not satisfy a second-order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the second-order matching prior performs better than the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. We also illustrate our results using real data.     

古歌三章——兼论诗性的时效

殷商甲骨文和<周易>中蕴涵着远古的诗歌信息,其中<四方风>、<今日雨>和<后土颂>就是发人深思的宝藏.三首古歌是穿透时空的漏斗,让天地人神的博弈跃然纸上;也是化解学科块垒的卮器,为古今中外的诗性吞吐太荒.从古歌反思诗性的时效,或可推进小年轮向大年轮的榫接;由今学比照古歌的旋律,便于体察人性诗和神性诗的交响.     

王树楠欧洲史著述探析

晚清时期,由于民族危机的加深,人们关注西政和外国史地学的编纂,王树楠是比较早的专门编纂欧洲史学之人。他具有强烈的忧患意识,强调变易进化的观念,继承发扬传统史学中治史之鉴戒传统,积极向国人介绍古希腊和欧洲各国的历史文化和政治制度,推动了变法思潮的发展,并积极主动地从中西比较中寻求借鉴。     

十八世纪朝日文人的“文会”与 “文战”——以笔谈唱和集资料为中心

从17世纪初到19世纪初,朝鲜王朝多次向日本派出通信使团,朝鲜通信使团成员与日本文人进行了广泛的接触与交流,其中又以18世纪最为突出.朝日文人的交流可从“文会”与“文战”两个方面来看.具体来说,朝日文人展开“文会”的目的在于“追求文趣”与“收集资讯”,而对“中华文化”与“自身文化”、“性理学”与“古学”的不同看法,则是双方进行“文战”的诱因.到了18世纪后期,日本文人认同与提高日本文化地位的意识不断高涨,也激发了日本文人与朝鲜文人展开文战的底气.     

自由与责任:网络空间伦理诉求及其实现策略

习近平在世界互联网大会上的主旨讲话中指出,互联网把世界变成了“鸡犬相闻”的地球村,改变着人们的生产生活,有力推动了社会发展;同时,他又指出,网络空间不是“法外之地”,并明确提出了加强网络空间治理、规范网络空间行为等要求.网络的虚拟性、开放性和交互性,既给人们提供了自由的空间和舞台,又对人们的道德要求和责任担当提出了更高的要求.行为主体网络信息的自由表达有其必要的边界和限度,网络行为中的责任担当对规范网络空间和现实社会的有序发展存在着积极的应然价值,自由与责任构建了网络空间最基本的伦理诉求.     

Gender differences in the experience of loneliness in U.S. Chinese older adults

This study aimed to explore the gender differences in the experiences of loneliness in the U.S. Chinese older population. The data were drawn from the PINE study, a population-based study of U.S. Chinese adults aged 60 years and older. The Revised–University of California at Los Angeles Loneliness Scale (R-UCLA) was used to measure loneliness. Overall, older Chinese women (28.3%) had a higher rate of loneliness than older men (23.3%, p < .001). In particular, women were more likely to sometimes or often experience a lack of companionship than men (22.9% vs. 17.3%, p < .001). Older women living with fewer people, with lower health status, poorer quality of life, and worsening health changes over the past year were more likely than men to experience any loneliness. This study indicates that gender differences exist in the prevalence, symptoms, and correlates of loneliness. Longitudinal studies should be undertaken to understand gender differences in risk factors and outcomes of loneliness.     

Objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull distributions

The Weibull distribution is widely used due to its versatility and relative simplicity. In our paper, the non informative priors for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull models are provided. The asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals is considered, with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. We developed the various priors for the ratio of two scale parameters using the following matching criteria: quantile matching, matching of distribution function, highest posterior density matching, and inversion of test statistics. One particular prior, which meets all the matching criteria, is found. Next, we derive the reference priors for groups of ordering. We see that all the reference priors satisfy a first-order matching criterion and that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed and an example given.     

Additive hazards regression of current status data with auxiliary covariates

This paper discusses the regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model with auxiliary covariates. As often occurs in practice, it is impossible or impractical to measure the exact magnitude of covariates for all subjects in a study. To compensate the missing information, some auxiliary covariates are utilized instead. We propose two easy-to-implement procedures for estimation of regression parameters by making use of auxiliary information. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established and extensive numerical studies indicate that both procedures work well in practice.     

鲁国古泮池遗址今何在——基于文献学角度的考察

据《水经注》等古文献记载:鲁泮池、泮台与汉太子钓鱼池、太子钓鱼台同在鲁故城西南部,地理位置相近,但却分属于不同的古建筑群遗址,形状也尽不相同。明中期衍圣公孔弘绪与孔弘泰分别在太子钓鱼池遗址和古泮池遗址上修建有南池别墅(又名南溪)和东庄别墅(又名东池)。明正德、嘉靖年间"移城护庙",新建阙里城东墙恰好从太子钓鱼池和古泮池中间穿过。太子钓鱼池留在了明城内,古泮池则被隔在了明城外。清乾隆年间,在明城内太子钓鱼池遗址上修建"古泮池行宫",乾隆帝"古泮池证疑"将其地定为古泮池。由此古泮池与太子钓鱼池张冠李戴,明城外真正的古泮池遗址再也无人问津。     

试论传媒多元化的政策逻辑

传媒多元化具体落实了媒体服务于民主的使命,已成为西方传媒政策一个无可争议的准则和目标。由于民主概念的多义性以及对传媒、市场等主体角色的不同理解,西方传媒政策在"何谓多元"以及"如何多元"等问题上意见殊异。无论将传媒多元化视为意见的自由市场,还是公共领域,抑或主张自由竞争的市场机制,或者主张积极干预的传媒政策,目前西方传媒多元化政策的设计都主要是基于一种结构/内容区分的逻辑。现行这种以市场为中心、强调结构决定内容的实用主义至上的政策逻辑值得我们省思。