黑龙江省锡伯族研究的新成果

本文从饱满的民族情怀;精心考证,立论得当;注意利用新的考古学和民族学成果;不辞辛苦,深入基层搞调查等方面介绍并论述了《黑龙江锡伯族》一书的学术价值和科研成果。     

Why a Simple Second-Price Auction Induces Efficient Endogenous Entry

This article further studies ex ante efficient auctions in the setting of Stegeman (1996 Participation costs and efficient auctions, Journal of Economic Theory 71, 228–259.), where there exist entry costs for bidders who know their valuations. An alternative method is established to address efficient auctions. This method illustrates the intuition why the ex ante efficient allocation is Bayesian implementable through the Stegeman (1996) auction (a second-price auction with a reserve price equal to seller’s valuation and no entry fee). More importantly, our method leads to an alternative ex ante efficient auction that implements uniquely the efficient entry. Thus, this alternative auction solves the entry indeterminacy problem of the Stegeman (1996) auction, which generally induces inefficient entry equilibria besides the efficient ones.      

多边环境协定与多边贸易体制的冲突及解决思路

多边环境协定与多边贸易体制之间无论在基本理念或是具体制度上都存在着一定的矛盾。在实践中,两种制度都有其合理的政策目标,它们有所重叠,但这并不意味着,国际社会可以在牺牲一方的前提下,选择另一种制度。自由贸易与环境保护都是实现可持续发展目标所不可缺少的,但是两者之间的矛盾阻碍了彼此作用的正常发挥,因此有必要根据客观现实的需要选择可行的解决途径。     

青年社会工作人才队伍的职业状况调查——以上海市卢湾区为例

青年社工是社会工作人才队伍的主体,亦是社会工作发展的希望。本文运用抽样调查的研究方法,对上海市卢湾区青年社会工作者的职业状况进行研究与分析,研究认为要做好青年社工的工作,需要注意以下几方面：完善社会工作制度建设、加强青年社工专业培训、协助青年社工整合资源、感情事业双留人。     

同伦分析方法中辅助算子L之选择

本文通过李对称的理论给出了同伦分析方法中选取辅助线性算子L的一个方法．     

关于海陆一体化的理论思考

海陆一体化是近年来沿海区域经济发展的一个新思路,但学界对它的认识还不统一。本文在界定海陆一体化概念的基础上,分析了海陆一体化与海陆统筹的区别,从经济学的视角分析了海陆一体化的层次、内容和发生机理,并提出了海陆一体化建设的原则和重点。     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation

Children represent a large underserved population of “therapeutic orphans,” as an estimated 80% of children are treated off‐label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or “borrowing”) of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure‐response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics.     

两型社会建设中的长株潭低碳城市群发展对策研究

加快长株潭城市群的两型社会建设,关键在于建设低碳城市群,促进节能减排,保持能源消耗和碳排放处于较低水平,构建低碳化的城市群落生态体系。长株潭低碳城市群建设机遇与挑战并存,区位、资源、人才、科技等优势和基础条件为其发展提供了良好机遇,而重化工产业结构、资源消耗、环境污染等问题提出了挑战。基于两型社会建设要求,长株潭低碳城市群建设需要加强低碳技术创新、低碳产业布局、低碳能源开发与利用、低碳消费与营销等。     

上海流动儿童的精神健康：一项探索性研究

中国的农村劳动力流动持续到现在,流动儿童即第二代移民问题已经浮出水面。但是,流动儿童精神状况问题没有引起研究人员的特别重视并成为专门的研究领域,而这恰恰是一个关乎城市长期发展和社会稳定的重要议题。本研究对上海市某小学的儿童进行了问卷调查,问卷包括国际流行的儿童抑郁量表和焦虑量表。研究发现上海市流动儿童存在一定程度的抑郁和焦虑。论文最后部分提出对于如何干预流动儿童心理问题的对策和建议。