农村居民消费对我国经济增长影响分析

本文通过建立面板数据模型测度了农村居民消费对我国经济增长的影响效应,认为农村居民消费对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用但不够明显,分析了扩大农村居民消费需求促进经济增长所面临的障碍因素并提出了相应的对策建议。     

SPECIAL ISSUE： ONLINE LITERATURE IN CHINA： PRESENT SITUATION AND THEORETICAL REFLECTIONS Online Writing in the Course of Discourse Transformation： A Review of Ten Outstanding Online Novels of the Past Decade

中国当代文学阅读层面上的价值认同正在经受前所未有的挑战。特别是新世纪以来,新的写作群体、写作方式不断涌现,使固有的理论批评体系遭到撞击、被撕裂,从而导致理论批评不时出现失语现象。随着网络文学的迅猛发展,非主流文学在阅读与消费环节中的影响日益增强,这就使得上述问题转化成了新的矛盾——互相不能包容的阅读隔膜。十多年来,网络上产生了海量的小说文本,逐渐形成了二十多种类型;本文兼顾时间跨度和创作类型,遴选了十年中不同类型的十部佳作,并针对它们区别于纸质媒体的艺术审美和创作特点进行了述评。     

OECD国家私有养老金在金融危机中的业绩及治理

2008年爆发的金融危机,对于世界经济产生了深刻的影响,其中一个非常重要的方面就是对养老金基金的影响。养老金基金在金融危机中大幅贬值,引起了人们对于过去三十多年的养老金制度改革的怀疑,是继续改革还是回到从前成为各国政府和理论界面临的一个难题。通过对OECD国家私有养老金基金的投资、业绩及治理情况的分析,我们基本上可以肯定,金融危机对于基金积累型的养老金制度的影响可能是巨大的,但却是暂时的,养老金基金的长期业绩是良好的。通过加强养老金基金的投资风险管理和合理的外部监督,私有养老金是能够成为人们退休收入保障的一个稳定的源泉的。     

东临碣石在绥中——《我从龙河走来》选载

读初中的时候就背诵过魏武帝曹操东临碣石,以观沧海这句脍炙人口的诗篇.那么,碣石究竟在哪里呢?我们到辽河流域采访时终于找到了答案: 碣石就在辽宁省绥中县.     

中国经济增长与环境污染关系的Kuznets曲线

一、引言关于经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,国内外很多学者进行了大量研究。1992年,美国经济学家G·Grossman和A·Kureger对此提出了一个环境Kuznets曲线(Environment Kuznets Curve,EKC)的假设[1]。该假设试图说明如果没有一定的环境政策干预,一个国家的整体环境质量或污染水平是随着经济增长和经济实力的积累呈先恶化后改善的趋势。他们采用跨国数据说明了EKC的存在,即最初环境恶化程度随着人均GDP的上升而上升,达到一个转折点后,将随着人均GDP的上升而下降。并把这种现象归因于以下几点:(1)当人们越富有时,对环境质量的要求越高…     

Regular A-optimal design matrices X = (xij) with xij = ?1, 0, 1

New construction methods of the regular A-optimal design matrices with elements −1, 0, 1 are presented, under assumption of nonhomogeneity of variance error. The presented constructions are based on the incidence matrices of the balanced bipartite weighing designs.     

Vector random fields with compactly supported covariance matrix functions

The objective of this paper is to construct covariance matrix functions whose entries are compactly supported, and to use them as building blocks to formulate other covariance matrix functions for second-order vector stochastic processes or random fields. In terms of the scale mixture of compactly supported covariance matrix functions, we derive a class of second-order vector stochastic processes on the real line whose direct and cross covariance functions are of Pólya type. Then some second-order vector random fields in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ whose direct and cross covariance functions are compactly supported are constructed by using a convolution approach and a mixture approach.     

Three-part model for fractional response variables with application to Chinese household health insurance coverage

A survey on health insurance was conducted in July and August of 2011 in three major cities in China. In this study, we analyze the household coverage rate, which is an important index of the quality of health insurance. The coverage rate is restricted to the unit interval [0, 1], and it may differ from other rate data in that the “two corners” are nonzero. That is, there are nonzero probabilities of zero and full coverage. Such data may also be encountered in economics, finance, medicine, and many other areas. The existing approaches may not be able to properly accommodate such data. In this study, we develop a three-part model that properly describes fractional response variables with non-ignorable zeros and ones. We investigate estimation and inference under two proportional constraints on the regression parameters. Such constraints may lead to more lucid interpretations and fewer unknown parameters and hence more accurate estimation. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of constrained and unconstrained models and show that estimation under constraint can be more efficient. The analysis of household health insurance coverage data suggests that household size, income, expense, and presence of chronic disease are associated with insurance coverage.     

Changepoint Estimation in a Segmented Linear Regression via Empirical Likelihood

For a segmented regression system with an unknown changepoint over two domains of a predictor, a new empirical likelihood ratio statistic is proposed to test the null hypothesis of no change. Under the null hypothesis of no change, the proposed test statistic is shown empirically to be Gumbel distributed with robust location and scale estimators against various parameter settings and error distributions. A power analysis is conducted to illustrate the performance of the test. Under the alternative hypothesis with a changepoint, the test statistic is utilized to estimate the changepoint between the two domains. A comparison of the frequency distributions between the proposed estimator and two parametric methods indicates that the proposed method is effective in capturing the true changepoint.