基于新感性之维的当代"新艺术"运动

从新感性的方法论出发,以当代感性活动的特点和理性能力的衍变来分析当下"新艺术"风格的设计创作活动.尝试探索在数字化技术的平台上,新感性为当代建筑设计和产品设计中的艺术创造所带来的新启示,从而有利于更深刻地理解当下设计界的种种发展趋势,同时也在一定程度上促进当代设计的创新与突破.     

A segmented regime-switching model with its application to stock market indices

This paper evaluates the ability of a Markov regime-switching log-normal (RSLN) model to capture the time-varying features of stock return and volatility. The model displays a better ability to depict a fat tail distribution as compared with using a log-normal model, which means that the RSLN model can describe observed market behavior better. Our major objective is to explore the capability of the model to capture stock market behavior over time. By analyzing the behavior of calibrated regime-switching parameters over different lengths of time intervals, the change-point concept is introduced and an algorithm is proposed for identifying the change-points in the series corresponding to the times when there are changes in parameter estimates. This algorithm for identifying change-points is tested on the Standard and Poor's 500 monthly index data from 1971 to 2008, and the Nikkei 225 monthly index data from 1984 to 2008. It is evident that the change-points we identify match the big events observed in the US stock market and the Japan stock market (e.g., the October 1987 stock market crash), and that the segmentations of stock index series, which are defined as the periods between change-points, match the observed bear–bull market phases.     

近代山西的道路修筑与交通网络

山西是近代中国交通比较落后的省份.山西传统的交通网络由以太原为中心的各级驿路构成.山西交通近代化最早是从铁路的建设开始的.山西的铁路建设曲折而缓慢.民国以后,山西省政府开始实施大规模的公路发展计划,在全省建立起以太原为中心的公路网络.山西的公路不仅质量较差,而且分布也不均匀.除一些平原地区之外,山西大部分地区仍处于相对封闭的状态之中,所以在近代山西只是初步建立起一个以太原为中心的交通网络.     

对氯偶氮氯膦分光光度法测定血清中的镁

本文利用对氯偶氮氯膦(CPAPCI)与镁的显色反应,测定了血清中镁含量。与 AES、AAS 法比照,本法简便,结果满意。     

论我国企业的危机公关--以"特富龙"事件为例

任何组织在成长过程中无一例外都会经历各种各样的危机.若无有效的快速反应和处理机制,一旦危机爆发,就只能仓促上阵,被动应对,如处理不当,殚精竭虑建设起来的组织形象就可能毁于一旦.因此,任何组织都应该而且必须重视危机公关处理.而杜邦公司"特富龙"事件处理方法无疑是个成功案例,值得我国企业学习和借鉴.     

Comparisons of Test Statistics Arising from Marginal Analyses of Multivariate Survival Data

We investigate the properties of several statistical tests for comparing treatment groups with respect to multivariate survival data, based on the marginal analysis approach introduced by Wei, Lin and Weissfeld [Regression Analysis of multivariate incomplete failure time data by modelling marginal distributians, JASA vol. 84 pp. 1065–1073]. We consider two types of directional tests, based on a constrained maximization and on linear combinations of the unconstrained maximizer of the working likelihood function, and the omnibus test arising from the same working likelihood. The directional tests are members of a larger class of tests, from which an asymptotically optimal test can be found. We compare the asymptotic powers of the tests under general contiguous alternatives for a variety of settings, and also consider the choice of the number of survival times to include in the multivariate outcome. We illustrate the results with simulations and with the results from a clinical trial examining recurring opportunistic infections in persons with HIV.     

"庄生晓梦迷蝴蝶"--论庄子"终身不仕"的原因

庄子"终身不仕",是先秦诸子中"独往独来"的"独有之人".他既不教授弟子,也不游说诸侯,只是偶尔做做白日梦而已.究其原因,从表面上看,是对现实政治的不满.他担心,"千世之后,其必有人与人相食者也".就实质而言,是对个人自由的追求.庄子要做逍遥游,"乘云气,御飞龙,而游乎四海之外".为此,必须明白齐物的道理,齐是非,同生死,"道通为一".从独断论到相对论,其间相距甚远;而从相对论到逍遥游,只有一步之遥.但愿以此化解"人相食"的悲剧,而不仅仅是庄子的白日梦.     

城市残疾人社会救助问题研究——以贵阳市为个案

残疾人社会救助是目前解决我国城市残疾人问题的最直接的办法.但在实施城市残疾人社会救助过程中存在着救助水平低、标准不统一、救助政策和执行机构以及残疾人自身素质局限性等问题,由此引发了一些新矛盾和负面影响.因此,建立社区残疾人自治组织和经常性社会捐助渠道、健全社会救助实施情况的监督检查机制,有利于完善我国城市残疾人社会救助体系并使之发挥"社会稳定器"和"社会安全网"的作用.     

论建立和完善高校青年志愿者活动的激励机制

高校青年志愿者运动已经成为高校德育建设的重要载体之一,建立和完善活动的激励机制是全社会倡导奉献、友爱、互助和进步的志愿者精神的需要,是志愿者活动规范化、制度化的需要,也是对大学生追求自我价值与创造的劳动价值的认可的需要。建立和完善活动激励机制就必须结合高校的育人目标,坚持精神激励为主、奖惩结合的原则,建立科学可行的评估体系,不断加大内、外激励的力度。     

公共管理部门的目标管理现状及对策研究

公共管理部门的目标管理存在着视目标管理为灵丹妙药、考核方法单一、不注重成本、考核缺乏科学性等误区。为此 ,应转变“目标就是万能”的观念 ,建立量化和非量化相结合的指标体系 ,运用系统论思想建立目标管理的分层结构 ,建立具有公共管理特色的管理体系。