EXPECTATIONS‐BASED REFERENCE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES AND ASSET PRICING

This paper explores the quantitative asset‐pricing implications of expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin (2009, American Economic Review, 99(3), 909–936), in an otherwise traditional Lucas‐tree model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations‐based loss aversion makes uncertain fluctuations in consumption more painful. Additionally, loss aversion introduces variation in returns because unexpected cuts in consumption are particularly painful, and the agent wants to postpone such cuts to let his reference point decrease. This variation generates strong predictability. However, it also causes counterfactually high volatility in the risk‐free rate, which I address by allowing for variation in expected consumption growth, heteroskedasticity in consumption growth, time‐variant disaster risk, and sluggish belief updating.     

„The study of population offers something for everyone“

Despite a significant overlap between sociology and demography, “sociology of population” is not well-established in Germany yet. This is very distinct from the development in the US where research at the intersection of sociology and demography is united under the umbrella of “social demography”. This introductory chapter of this KZfSS Special Issue first explores the synergies of both disciplines. We then present the special Issue’s content of the volume. It is structured along demography’s core fields of “Fertility and Partnership” (Section I), “Migration and Mobility” (Section II) and “Mortality and Morbidity” (Section III). The volume contains furthermore a section on “Welfare State and Demographic Change” (Section IV) as well as cutting-edge research in the realm of “Sociology and Biodemography” (Section V).     

Replik Auf Den Diskussionsbeitrag Von Rolf Becker

In a previous article in this journal (Fuchs/Sixt 2007) based on an analysis with the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) we have argued that children of educational climbers do not have educational opportunities similar to the typical educational opportunities of children on the newly achieved educational level. Even though we could demonstrate that the climbers’ children are subject to an increase of their educational opportunities compared to the level from which their parents originate, they do not reach the average of the destination level. Based on the theoretical reasoning provided by Bourdieu we argue that this educational disadvantage is caused by the lower furnishing of their families with social, cultural, and economic capital, by climbers’ employment position which is less advantageous, and also by the lower educational level of the climbers’ partners. In his detailed discussion of our analysis Rolf Becker has identified conflicting findings compared to his previous analysis based on the data of the German Lebensverlaufsstudie. In response to his critical discussion we will solve this ostensible caveat. Using again data from the SOEP we demonstrate that his seemingly contradictious findings are due to the specifics of his analytical approach. While Becker shows that the climbers’ children reach educational opportunities that are higher compared to the opportunities of children from the climbers’ level or origin (positive effect of climbing), our results indicate that their educational opportunities do not reach the level that is typically seen on the higher level of education that the educational climbers have reached for the first time (negative effect of climbing).     

Comparing unemployment protection and social assistance in 14 European countries. Four worlds of protection for people of working age

Pfeifer, M. Comparing unemployment protection and social assistance in 14 European countries. Four worlds of protection for people of working age This article aims to show which policy responses 14 Western European countries have adopted to deal with rising unemployment levels and increased need for benefits during working age. In contrast to earlier studies, both components of unemployment benefits (UB), i.e. unemployment insurance and unemployment assistance, were taken into account in a social rights indicator that depicts the legal entitlements of the unemployed. In total, there were eight indicators of both UB and social assistance representing expenditure, generosity, problem pressure and benefit entitlements. The following cluster analysis groups countries using these indicators. The resulting typology consisted of four ways of protecting the working‐aged: an extensive safety nets type operating well with functioning labour markets; a liberal protection type dealing with low levels of unemployment; a targeted protection type combined with an insider–outsider divide on the labour market; and lastly, a patchy safety nets type facing high unemployment levels.     

Modeling of interventions for reducing external Enterobacteriaceae contamination of broiler carcasses during processing

This article presents a mathematical model for the Enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of broiler chicken during slaughter and how it may be affected by different processing technologies. The model is based on a model originally developed for Campylobacter and has been adapted for Enterobacteriaceae using a Bayesian updating approach and hitherto unpublished data gathered from German abattoirs. The slaughter process in the model consists of five stages: input, scalding, defeathering, evisceration, washing, and chilling. The impact of various processing technologies along the broiler processing line on the Enterobacteriaceae count on the carcasses’ surface has been determined from literature data. The model is implemented in the software R and equipped with a graphical user interface which allows interactively to choose among different processing technologies for each stage along the processing line. Based on the choice of processing technologies the model estimates the Enterobacteriaceae count on the surface of each broiler chicken at each stage of processing. This result is then compared to a so-called baseline model which simulates a processing line with a fixed set of processing technologies. The model calculations showed how even very effective removal of bacteria on the exterior of the carcass in a previous step will be undone by the cross-contamination with leaked feces, if feces contain high concentrations of bacteria.     

Advancing Environmental Risk Education

This article summarizes views on environmental risk education for youth and identifies some challenges to advancing environmental risk education. It is argued that education--in particular, formal (in-school, structured) education--can play an important role in helping to create an environmental risk-literate society. Recommendations focus on developing a framework of environmental risk education goals and objectives, evaluating environmental risk education efforts, and learning more about how to help youth make informed environmental risk decisions and to prepare them to participate in environmental risk management. It is hoped that this article will encourage greater involvement of risk professionals in environmental risk education efforts and related research.     

Marriage‐Related Migration to the UK

Spouses form the largest single category of migrant settlement in the UK, but research and policy making on marriage‐related migration to Britain provides incomplete coverage of the phenomenon, having been dominated by a focus on the South Asian populations that are among the largest groups of such migrants. By bringing together immigration statistics with information from academic and third‐sector sources, this article attempts to provide a more balanced and nuanced portrayal of patterns and practices of marriage‐related migration to the UK. In doing so, it reveals important nationality and gender differences in migration flows and considers how varying marriage practices, social and political contexts, and policies of both receiving and sending countries may work to influence marriage‐related migration streams. It also exposes the limitations and lacunae in existing research on this diverse form of migration, highlighting the danger that immigration policy made on the basis of partial evidence will produce unexpected consequences.     

Characteristics of university students who mix alcohol and energy drinks

Objective: Research has identified correlates (eg, drug use, risky sex, smoking) of using alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AMEDs). Few studies have investigated common mental health-related concerns (eg, depression, sleep). Participants: Alcohol-using college students (n = 380 never used AMEDs, n = 180 used AMEDs) were recruited in the study during the fall 2011 semester. Methods: The study examined demographics, substance use, depressive symptoms, and sleep problems in association with AMED use. Results: Multivariable logistic regression indicated that alcohol use severity (AOR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.14+1.34), drug use severity (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI = 1.04–1.39), depressive symptoms (AOR = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.01–1.12), and smoking (AOR = 2.12; 95% CI = 1.22–3.68) were independently associated with AMED use; sleep problems were non-significant. Conclusions: Administrators may consider policies regarding energy drink availability on campus, and campus health personnel may increase screening and education surrounding AMED use to reduce risks among students.