基于代价敏感决策树的客户价值细分(英文)

由于错误分类代价差异和不同价值客户数量的不平衡分布,基于总体准确率的数据挖掘方法不能体现由于客户价值不同对分类效果带来的影响.为了解决错误分类不平衡的数据分类问题,利用代价敏感学习技术扩展现有决策树模型,将这一方法应用在客户价值细分,建立基于客户价值的错分代价矩阵,以分类代价最小化作为决策树分支的标准,建立分类的期望损失函数作为分类效果的评价标准,采用中国某银行的信用卡客户数据进行实验.实验结果表明,与传统决策树方法相比,代价敏感决策树对客户价值细分问题有更好的分类效果,可以更精确地控制代价敏感性和不同种分类错误的分布,降低总体的错误分类代价,使模型能更准确反映分类的代价,有效识别客户价值     

中国农村收入、收入差距和健康

本文利用2004年和2006年中国9个省份的家庭调查面板数据,研究收入、相对收入和农村居民健康之间的关系。发现健康状况随着个人收入的增加而改善,呈现出明显的非线性关系;收入差距对健康的滞后影响,呈现倒U型关系。此外,当基尼系数在0.387以下时,农村居民健康水平将会随着基尼系数的扩大而改善,当收入差距进一步扩大时,健康水平将受到损害。而数据显示68%的农村居民在倒U右侧,健康正受到扩大的收入差距侵蚀。     

当前我国农村居民的生育意愿与性别偏好研究

本文利用 2 0 0 2年国家计生委宣教司的“农村居民生育意愿调查”数据 ,研究了计划生育工作的主要矛盾是群众的意愿生育孩子性别结构与国家生育政策之间的矛盾 ,弱化性别偏好对于稳定低生育水平和促进出生人口性别比的平衡都是至关重要的     

Integrative Families and Systems Treatment: a middle path toward integrating common and specific factors in evidence-based family therapy

A moderate common factors approach is proposed as a synthesis or middle path to integrate common and specific factors in evidence-based approaches to high-risk youth and families. The debate in family therapy between common and specific factors camps is reviewed and followed by suggestions from the literature for synthesis and creative flexibility in manual development. A preliminary integrative model termed Integrative Family and Systems Treatment is offered as one option in developing and testing a moderate common factors approach. Such a model might then be studied in eventual clinical trials with other well-developed evidence-based protocols to further address the common versus specific factor debate. Implications for further research and practice are offered.     

“Where Have All the Good Men Gone?” Gendered Interactions in Online Dating

This article explores gendered patterns of online dating and their implications for heterosexual union formation. Using 6 months of online dating data from a midsized Southwestern city (N = 8,259 men, 6,274 women), the authors found that men and women tend to send messages to the most socially desirable alters in the dating market regardless of their own desirability levels. They also found that male initiators connect with more desirable partners than men who wait to be contacted, but female initiators connect with equally desirable partners as women who wait to be contacted. Female‐initiated contacts are also more than twice as likely as male‐initiated contacts to result in a connection, but women send 4 times fewer messages than men. Finally, the authors compared partner desirability levels over repeated exchanges and concluded that couple similarities are more likely to result from relationship termination (i.e., nonreciprocity) than initial homophilous preferences.     

基于广义CoVaR模型的系统重要性银行的风险溢出效应研究

本文基于我国16家上市商业银行的股票日收益率数据,通过分位数回归估计广义CoVaR模型,即将CoVaR模型的条件由q分位点下的收益率等于VaR推广至最多等于VaR.在此基础上分别度量了上市商业银行对整个金融市场体系和上市商业银行对其他上市商业银行的风险溢出效应.结果表明,全国性商业银行的系统性风险普遍高于地方性商业银行,而各个上市商业银行之间的风险溢出效应具有显著的差异.     

填充等离子体介质切伦可夫脉塞的线性理论

在无引导磁场的作用下，利用自洽线性场理论，分析了电子的三维扰动速度和三维扰动电流密度对填充等离子体的介质切伦可夫脉塞注波互作用的影响，导出了注波互作用的色散关系和同步条件，所得关系清楚地表明，其工作用不稳定性是由填充等离子体的介质筒慢波波导中的ＴＭ模与电子注模通过电子注耦合所致，并求得了电子注引起的频偏和波的增长率。     

Comparing the Survival of Two Groups with an Intermediate Clinical Event

Consider a subject entered on a clinicaltrial in which the major endpoint is a time metric such as deathor time to reach a well defined event. During the observationalperiod the subject may experience an intermediate clinical event.The intermediate clinical event may induce a change in the survivaldistribution. We consider models for the one and two sample problem.The model for the one sample problem enables one to test if theoccurrence of the intermediate event changed the survival distribution.This models provides a way of carrying out non-randomized clinicaltrial to determine if a therapy has benefit. The two sample problemconsiders testing if the probability distributions, with andwithout an intermediate event, are the same. Statistical testsare derived using a semi-Markov or a time dependent mixture model.Simulation studies are carried out to compare these new procedureswith the log rank, stratified log rank and landmark tests. Thenew tests appear to have uniformly greater power than these competitortests. The methods are applied to a randomized clinical trialcarried out by the Aids Clinical Trial Group (ACTG) which comparedlow versus high doses of zidovudine (AZT).     

建筑是怎样的“艺术”

建筑“一类只具有一般的审美性质 ,另一类有较强的思想性 ,属于真正艺术的行列”。建筑既是一种广义的艺术 ,又可能上升到狭义艺术的高度     

我国集群的地区维度信用风险实证分析

本文在深入分析KMV模型的原理基础上，将KMV模型的理论运用于分析集群的地区维度信用风险。对我国集群的主要地区：江苏、浙江、广东和福建的主要上市公司从1993年到2004年的数据进行违约概率实证，最后，从四个地区近几年的发展历程及特点进行分析，分析结果与实证结果是一致的。