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61.
Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists 下载免费PDF全文
Richard M. Huggins Paul S.F. Yip Jakub Stoklosa 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2016,58(1):1-13
We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods. 相似文献
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保罗·哈里 《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2016,19(3):20-30
毛泽东的认识论并非严格意义上的经验主义,而是经验主义和理性主义的混合物。研究毛泽东的思想需要理论干预,应将其文本看作理论推演的实体,并关注文本中现有的理论主张、合乎逻辑的假设和建构方式及其相互间的关系以及这些关系的一致性和连贯性程度。 相似文献
64.
Auctions provide an institutional solution to a social problem; they enable the legitimate pricing and exchange of goods where those goods are of uncertain value. In turn, auctions raise a number of social and organizational issues that are resolved within the interaction that arise in sales by auction. In this paper, we examine sales of fine art, antiques and objets d'art and explore the ways in which auctioneers mediate competition between buyers and establish a value for goods. In particular, we explore how bids are elicited, co-ordinated and revealed so as to rapidly escalate the price of goods in a transparent manner that enables the legitimate valuation and exchange of goods. In directing attention towards the significance of the social interaction, including talk, visual and material conduct, the paper contributes to the growing corpus of ethnographic studies of markets. It suggests that to understand the operation of markets and their outcomes, and to unpack issues of agency, trust and practice, we need to place the 'interaction order' at the heart of analytic agenda. 相似文献
65.
Kushner MG Abrams K Donahue C Thuras P Frost R Kim SW 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2007,23(2):121-132
Cue-reactivity has received increased attention in addiction research, though not for gambling in particular. We examined
cue reactivity in 18 problem gamblers by accompanying them to a gaming casino and measuring their subjective urge to gamble
over a 1-h period. Half of the sample was additionally exposed to a gambling-specific negative mood induction (NMI) manipulation
via guided imagery. Overall, about two-thirds of the sample reported moderate to high-gambling urges during the casino exposure.
Additionally, the NMI reduced cue-reactivity. Finally, gambling urges in both groups decreased over the course of the exposure
sessions. These findings suggest that a majority of problem gamblers experience the urge to gamble when exposed to gambling
cues and that the intensity of these urges decrease with time, especially in the presence of a gambling-relevant NMI. Cue
exposure should be studied further as a potential tool in the treatment of problem gambling. 相似文献
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A common manufacturing environment in many industries (such as the glass, steel, paper, costume jewelry, and textile industries) is a hybrid flow shop. This system has continuous-process machinery in the fist state of manufacturing and repetitive-batch equipment in the second. Little research has investigated this type system. Scheduling managers of hybrid flow shops tend either to use existing job-shop rules or to devise their own rules. These approaches often are less than adequate for efficient scheduling. In this paper we extend the rule presented by Narasimhan and Panwalker [4] to include a general class of hybrid flow shops. This extenstion, called the generalized cumulative minimum-deviation (GCMD) rule, is compared under various operation conditions to three other sequencing rules: shortest processing time, longest processing time, and minimum deviation. The operating conditions are determined by the number of machines at both stages. The results of 7200 simulation runs demonstrate that the GCMD rule is better than the other rules in minimizing each of five chosen criteria. Thus, the GCMD rule can help managers to schedule hybrid flow shops efficiently to achieve various corporate objectives. 相似文献
68.
数百年来,马尼拉、澳门和广州一直相互依存,保持着密切关系。从16世纪后期至今,三者有着紧密的互动关系,每一城市对其他两者都有着深刻的影响与冲击。这些联系已经维系了几百年,直到今天仍有数万菲律宾人在珠江三角洲生活和工作。牛痘传入澳门和广州或许是巴尔米斯环球之旅的意外收获,但它也确实是三个地区之间长期密切关系的一个表现。在巴尔米斯来到珠江三角洲200周年之际,我们不应忘记三地人民之间在历史上的紧密关系,这一关系仍继续支持和维系着中菲两国,它也将把我们带向未来。 相似文献
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Paul R. Watkins 《决策科学》1984,15(1):92-106
In a recent issue of this journal, Watkins [13] presented an approach for discovery of decision-maker perceptions of the complexity (dimensionality) of information items that might be supplied by a decision support system. Through use of multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis, relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers, sharing common perceptions of various information items, were formed. This prior research was referred to as a first step in suggesting that information reports could be tailored to groups of decision makers classified on the basis of common perceptions of information. The current research extends the prior study by evaluating decision maker preferences for information in a variety of decision-making scenarios in relation to the previously identified perceptions of the information. Based on the results of the study, conclusions are made which suggest that the tailoring of information to groups of decision makers should be based on both perceptions and preferences for information. Even so, it is demonstrated that the decision tasks have an impact on the preferences for information which may affect the attempt to tailor information to groups of decision makers. 相似文献