动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP测度及影响因素研究

提高城市群土地利用TFP对合理高效利用土地资源,协调好城市群经济发展、资源配置和环境保护具有重大理论和实践意义.文章运用DEA-Malmquist指数对2003—2016年动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP进行测度和时空演变分析,并利用Tobit回归模型对影响城市群土地利用TFP变化的因素进行深入研究.结果表明:从时间维度看,城市群土地利用TFP年均上升0.7％,城市群土地利用TFP增长由技术效率和技术进步"双核驱动",技术效率的提升主要与纯技术效率提升有关,规模效率是技术效率和土地利用TFP提升的瓶颈约束;从空间维度看,晋中、哈长、海峡西岸、中原、长江中游、北部湾、成渝、黔中、关中平原和兰西城市群土地利用TFP呈下降趋势,其余城市群土地利用TFP均呈上升趋势,且京津冀、呼包鄂榆、辽中南、长江三角洲、山东半岛和天山北坡城市群土地利用TFP增长为技术进步和技术效率"双核驱动";从影响因素看,人均GDP和年末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额对中国城市群土地利用TFP具有正向促进作用,城市财政支出占本市GDP的比重和人口密度具有负向阻碍作用.     

汽车侧围外板尾翼拉延成型工艺改善研究

为解决汽车侧围外板尾翼在拉延成型后出现起皱和开裂的问题，设计了3种造型方案.通过造型设计分析及Autoform模拟，对比3种方案，对原工艺进行整改和优化，得到了抬高造型台阶面的最优造型方案.该方案能改善进料速度、增加材料流动性，有效地消除开裂、起皱的缺陷，对同类和其他类似产品的冲压工艺设计具有参考意义.     

论“和合”文化在行政管理中的价值

探索"和合"文化内涵及其在行政管理中的应用,助推行政管理创新,增强社会活力与和谐因素。     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

三种运营模式下O2O外卖服务供应链质量努力策略研究

O2O外卖作为"互联网+"时代下的新型餐饮模式，日益受到人们的关注。本文研究的O2O外卖服务供应链由一个O2O外卖平台、一个餐饮商家和一个配送骑手构成。O2O外卖平台决策平台的服务质量努力和服务费用，餐饮商家决策产品价格，骑手决策配送服务质量努力程度，同时会受到来自平台或商家的服务质量激励。通过分析商家配送、平台配送和商家自建平台+配送三种运营模式，分别构建O2O外卖服务供应链成员的利润函数，运用博弈理论，优化得到不同模式下O2O外卖服务供应链成员的最优质量控制策略和最优利润。利用公式推导和对比分析，分别探讨了骑手激励金额上限和市场规模对服务供应链最优策略和最优利润的影响。通过数值仿真，可得结论：服务供应链各成员利润均随着市场规模的增大而增大，随着骑手激励金额上限的增加而先增大后减少。当市场规模较小时，平台配送模式下商家最优利润最大。而当市场规模较大时，商家自建平台+配送模式下商家最优利润最大。     

Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.     

Cities evolution tree and applications to predicting urban growth

China’s unprecedented urbanization and economic modernization have brought about significant growth and land use changes in cities and their surroundings. Traditional analyses of the relationship between urbanization and land use change have not fully incorporated important factors like city function or developmental stage. We define and apply a new visualization and analysis tool—an evolution tree—showing how an understanding of evolutionary pathways taken by growing cities contributes to visualization and forecasting of urban development and spatial expansion. We clustered 253 Chinese cities by type and developmental stage, arranging them in a “tree” structure, with types grouped as branches and leaf position along branches reflecting developmental stage. Urban growth rates are higher for business-oriented, manufacturing-oriented, and functionally comprehensive cities than for those oriented toward tourism. Extent of spatial growth is dominated by city type and developmental stage. Cities evolve along typical pathways, punctuated by occasional leap developments across functional types.     

协商民主有效性的认识路径:基于程序—结果的分析框架

理性是实践的基础,它在政治、行政领域表现为各种组织和制度.协商的产生和广泛应用源于从实践理性到交往理性、选择理性到有限理性的两种修正,从这两种修正中可以得出认识协商有效性的程序与结果两个维度.基于这两个维度,我国的协商实践可以分为决策型协商、解压型协商、告示型协商、谏言型协商四类.在统一框架内把握每类协商的特征和问题,是增强协商有效性的前提.     

Semiparametric Estimation Methods for the Accelerated Failure Time Mixture Cure Model

This paper provides an overview of two semiparametric estimation methods recently proposed in the literature for the accelerated failure time mixture cure model. We prove that the two estimation methods are asymptotically equivalent. A simulation is conducted to investigate the rate of convergence of the two methods. We apply these methods to fit the accelerated failure time mixture cure model to the survival times of leukemia patients receiving bone marrow transplantation.     

高等院校职业化教育培养要素及其差异探究

我国高等院校开展职业化教育的重要性已被国内高等教育研究者广泛关注,但缺乏职业化教育培养体系的研究。高等院校职业化教育应以职业化的评判标准为基础,其核心是职业综合素质的培养。职业素质培养是高等院校职业化教育的最终目标,职业素养培养是高等教育职业素质培养的重要环节。可以根据不同类型高等院校的学生特点和培养目标开展适宜的职业化教育。